Main Points：
- Bitcoin’s network-wide unrealized profits have surged past $1.2 trillion, with the MVRV ratio sitting at around 125%, a level that historically prompts selling.
- On-chain “diamond hands” metrics—such as coins unmoved for 155+ days (14.7 million BTC) and declining liveliness—show holders strongly preferring to sit tight.
- Geopolitical sell-offs have been shallow and short-lived, with key support at $98,300 (¥13.8 million) holding after Middle East tensions eased.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional capital, averaging ~$298 million per day of net inflows over the past week.
- Recent on-chain and market data suggest more upside potential: the MVRV ratio, while elevated, shows room to grow, and realized cap just hit a record ~$937 billion.
Network-Wide Unrealized Profits at All-Time High
According to the latest analysis, the total unrealized profit across the Bitcoin network has reached approximately $1.2 trillion. This is derived from the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized capitalization—the sum of coin values at the last time they moved on-chain. The MVRV ratio (Market Value ÷ Realized Value) stands at around 1.25, indicating that the average coin is holding a 125% unrealized gain. Historically, such high MVRV readings have triggered increased selling as investors lock in profits. Yet, despite this “overbought” signal, realized profit-taking has averaged only about $872 million per day, a muted level compared to previous bull runs.
Diamond Hands: On-Chain Data Shows Reluctance to Sell
Several on-chain metrics underscore a pronounced reluctance among investors to sell:
- Dormant Coin Supply: The volume of Bitcoin unmoved for at least 155 days has climbed to a record 14.7 million BTC, signaling long-term holding behavior.
- Liveliness Metric: This measure of coin movement activity has steadily declined, reflecting that fewer coins are actively changing hands, and holders are choosing to HODL.
These indicators together paint a picture of “diamond hands,” where investors withstand short-term fluctuations and remain committed to the long-term thesis of Bitcoin.
Geopolitical Resilience and Price Support
Despite intermittent sell-offs tied to Middle East tensions in Q2 2025, Bitcoin prices have demonstrated strong resilience:
- After a brief dip, price rebounded sharply at the $98,300 (≈ ¥13.8 million) level, which coincides with the average cost basis of short-term holders. This rebound underpins the division between bullish and bearish regimes and is viewed as a “constructive signal” by market experts.
- The ability of the market to absorb geopolitical shocks without triggering mass profit-taking events further underscores the conviction of existing holders and the deepening liquidity in the market.
Institutional Adoption: The Role of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Institutional demand via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remains a crucial driver:
- Over the past week, net inflows have averaged $298 million per day, totaling over $2 billion in new capital. This steady demand from asset managers and institutional allocators is underpinning prices as retail selling remains muted.
- ETF assets under management in Bitcoin products now exceed $106 billion, representing 5.7% of the circulating supply—further evidence of Bitcoin’s maturation as an investable asset class .
These flows help explain why, even amid high unrealized profits, selling pressure is restrained: new institutional bids soak up available supply.
The Path Ahead: What the MVRV Ratio and On-Chain Metrics Imply
Recent developments in on-chain data and market structure suggest:
1. Room to Grow: Although the MVRV ratio has pulled back slightly from its April peak of 1.40 to around 1.25, it remains well below the extreme topping regime historically marked by values above 3.7. Continued MVRV momentum could signal further upside.
2. Realized Cap Milestones: The Bitcoin realized cap just hit a fresh record $936.6 billion, up from $400 billion at the November 2022 cycle low. This underscores nearly $537 billion of fresh capital absorbed into the network during the current cycle.
3. Institutional Entrenchment: With ETF products holding over 1.14 million BTC (~$70 billion) and new altcoin staking ETFs on the horizon, institutional participation is broadening beyond Bitcoin alone.
Conclusion
Even with $1.2 trillion of unrealized profits on the table and a 125% average gain per coin, Bitcoin holders continue to exhibit remarkable patience. On-chain signals—dormant supply at record highs and declining liveliness—coupled with robust institutional ETF inflows, suggest strong conviction in the market’s long-term narrative. As geopolitical headwinds prove temporary and key support levels hold, on-chain and market metrics signal that Bitcoin may still have substantial room to run before profit-taking pressures intensify. For investors hunting new crypto assets or exploring blockchain’s practical applications, these dynamics highlight both the resilience and the evolving maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
