Main Points:
- Three consecutive months of monthly gains
- Range-bound trading between ¥14.5M–¥16.0M
- On‐chain data signals continued demand
- Low futures premium reflects muted speculation
- July could see a breakout toward ¥16.0M+
Background: June’s Solid Foundation
In June 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited notable resilience, trading near ¥15.5 million (≈ $110,700) as the monthly candlestick shaped up for a third consecutive green month. Although it didn’t surpass May’s high of ¥16.14 million (≈ $115,300), BTC’s higher lows—building from April’s low of ¥10.82 million (≈ $77,300)—highlighted sustained buying pressure. After a 20% drop in February, June’s recovery recouped these losses, yet the January peak of ¥17.10 million (≈ $122,100) remains out of reach until July or later.
Weekly Dynamics: Consolidation and Rebound
Early June’s weekly chart showed a consolidation phase, as week 1 and week 2 traded within a tight band. This followed seven straight weekly gains through May, prompting profit-taking. A roughly 3% dip one week was fully recovered the next, keeping BTC in a ¥14.5 M–¥16.0 M range. Market participants now watch for a decisive breakout above or below this channel to signal the next trend.
Daily Action: Poised for Higher Highs
On the daily timeframe, BTC stayed above the 14-period EMA, indicating bullish momentum. Late-May profit-taking weighed on price into early June, but support held near ¥15.5 M on June 10 when BTC briefly tested ¥16.0 M again. Despite resistance at the ¥16.0 M zone, low volatility—evidenced by an ADX dropping to 12 (its lowest in 2025)—suggests the correction phase is ending. A directional move in July could ignite stronger price action.
On-Chain Metrics: Exchange Outflows and Stablecoin Inflows
Exchange‐held BTC continues to decline, as large holders withdraw coins, reducing available supply. This persistent outflow signals strong buy-side demand and supports a firm price floor.
Conversely, exchange USDT reserves have recently ticked higher after months of decline. Since April, stablecoin inflows may underwrite fresh buying power, easing resistance and potentially lifting BTC toward new highs.
Futures Market: Low Premium, Low Risk
The 3-month futures basis—the gap between futures and spot—stands at approximately 5%. This is the lowest level seen in a year, indicating subdued speculative fervor. With fewer leveraged long positions to force liquidations, BTC’s downside risk is relatively muted. Even if July’s rally stalls, a severe sell-off seems unlikely given this restrained leverage environment.
Comparative Insights: Global and Regulatory Drivers
Recent developments beyond Japan’s charts add context:
- U.S. ETF Impact – Bloomberg reports that net inflows into spot BTC ETFs reached $200 million in the week ending June 25, indicating continued institutional interest.
- Regulatory Progress – The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) enters phase 2 next month, clarifying stablecoin guidelines and fostering broader adoption among European traders.
- Corporate Adoption – MicroStrategy announced a $500 million debt facility to acquire additional BTC, reinforcing confidence in corporate treasury demand (CoinDesk, June 20).
These factors lend additional support to Bitcoin’s uptrend, especially as institutional demand coalesces.
Conclusion
June 2025’s Bitcoin market showcased a robust foundation, marked by three consecutive monthly gains and supportive on-chain and futures indicators. Range-bound trading between ¥14.5 M and ¥16.0 M, combined with muted volatility, points to a market primed for a July breakout. Exchange outflows and renewed stablecoin inflows underpin firm demand, while low futures premiums reduce crash risk. Should BTC clear ¥16.0 M, a run toward its January peak of ¥17.10 M (≈ $122,100) is within sight. For investors seeking new crypto opportunities and practical blockchain applications, July may unveil the next significant trend in Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle.
