Main Points:
- Strong Yen-Priced Rally: Bitcoin (BTC) rose from ¥12,364,636 (＄86,597) to close at ¥13,326,693 (＄93,335) on April 22, its largest daily gain in a week, driven by both domestic buying and renewed U.S. risk-on sentiment.
- U.S. Trade Optimism: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments on easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions helped spur risk appetite, pushing BTC toward ¥13.0 million (＄91,047) in Asian hours.
- Institutional Partnerships: Financial Times reports that Cantor Fitzgerald is teaming with Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex to launch “Twenty One Capital,” a $3 billion bitcoin acquisition vehicle, further boosting market confidence.
- Technical Indicators Signal Reversal: BTC/USD has reclaimed its 200‐day moving average, completed a bullish “three-line strike” on the Ichimoku chart, and broken above the year-end double‐top neck line at $89,000.
- ETF Inflows Surge: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $912 million net inflow on April 22—over 500 times the 2025 daily average—indicating renewed institutional demand.
- Next Resistance Levels: With RSI still below the “overbought” 70% threshold, BTC could challenge March’s local high near $95,000 (≈¥13.46 million) if momentum holds.
Yen-Priced Rally Under Tokyo Lights
On April 22, Tokyo‐session trading opened with BTC/JPY at ¥12,364,636 (＄86,597). Domestic buyers quickly dominated, driving the pair above ¥12.5 million (＄87,545). However, a weaker dollar/yen rate weighed on the yen valuation of bitcoin mid‐day, tempering gains. As U.S. markets opened, hawkish‐leaning Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that recent trade frictions between the United States and China would ease under the new administration, flipping global risk sentiment bullish and sending BTC/JPY toward ¥13.0 million (＄91,047) again. By Japanese market close, BTC/JPY marked its highest closing price in three trading days at ¥13,326,693 (＄93,335)—a nearly 7.8% gain from the prior close.
U.S. Trade Truce Ignites Risk Appetite
Amid concerns that escalating Sino-U.S. trade sanctions would pressure broad markets, Secretary Yellen’s remarks—echoing President Trump’s “crypto-friendly” stance—prompted a swift reversal in risk sentiment. Investors rotated out of safe-haven assets into equities and risk-linked currencies, lifting bitcoin prices. This shift underlines bitcoin’s evolving role as both a digital hedge and a risk-on asset in periods of geopolitical détente.
Citation: Yellen’s comments and their market impact.
Twenty One Capital: A New Institutional Bet
Later, breaking news from the Financial Times revealed that Cantor Fitzgerald’s chairman, Brandon Lutnick (son of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick), is forming a $3 billion bitcoin acquisition vehicle—Twenty One Capital—in partnership with Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex. The SPAC merger structure (Cantor Equity Partners) will launch Twenty One with approximately 42,000 BTC, positioning it as the third-largest public crypto treasury. This high-profile consortium underscores institutional conviction and may attract further capital inflows.
Citation: Cantor-Tether-SoftBank partnership details.
Technical Reversal: From Downtrend to Uptrend
Reclaiming the 200-Day Moving Average
In dollar terms, BTC/USD climbed back above its 200‐day simple moving average—long seen as a key gauge of medium-term trend. Historically, such a move often heralds a shift from bearish momentum to a sustained uptrend.
Ichimoku “Three-Line Strike”
On the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, BTC achieved a “three-line strike”, where the conversion line (Tenkan-sen), baseline (Kijun-sen), and lagging span (Chikou-span) all flipped bullish. This rare alignment signals strong momentum reversal.
Double-Top Neckline Break
Bitcoin had formed a double top around $100,000 in late December–January, with a neck line at $89,000. The breakthrough above this level confirms a pattern breakout, suggesting the downtrend from early 2025 is now invalidated.
ETF Flows Confirm Institutional Demand
On April 22, U.S. spot btc ETF platforms reported a record $912 million net inflow—over 500 times the 2025 daily average of just $2.1 million of BTC equivalent. Glassnode data highlights this as the largest ETF inflow since November 11, 2024, underscoring a dramatic institutional re-entry. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI project such demand could drive BTC to $200,000 by year-end, provided no major black-swan events intervene.
Market Psychology: “Buy the Breakout”
Market lore warns “hold the breakout until it confirms”—investors remain wary of premature rallies. With RSI still under 70%, there’s room for further upside before overbought conditions prevail. Should BTC/USD test and clear March’s local high near $95,000 (¥13.46 million), it would cement the trend reversal and likely lure momentum traders.
What Comes Next?
- Resistance at $95K/¥13.46 M: A clean break here would validate the reversal.
- Institutional Announcements: Further SPAC-crypto tie-ups or ETF approvals could catalyze fresh inflows.
- Macro Data: U.S. CPI and Fed minutes (due next week) will influence risk appetite and dollar direction, impacting yen-denominated BTC prices.
- Profit-Taking: With rapid gains, short-term traders may lock in profits, leading to minor pullbacks.
Bitcoin’s sharp ¥1 million (＄7,004)+ advance on April 22 marks a pivotal inflection: technical charts, macro factors, and institutional endorsements converge to suggest the downtrend that gripped early 2025 is losing grip. While caution remains prudent—particularly around major economic data and potential profit-taking—the backdrop of robust ETF inflows and marquee partnerships like Twenty One Capital points to a new bullish chapter. If BTC maintains above its 200-day average and conquers the $95,000 barrier, the path could be clear toward fresh all-time highs.
