Main Points：
- Bold Price Forecast: Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to over $250,000 by the end of 2025.
- Macroeconomic Catalyst: Hayes argues that a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) will lower interest rates and stimulate liquidity, driving a strong bullish trend in Bitcoin.
- Market Expectations: With fiat currency supply expected to expand further, the market’s anticipation alone is propelling Bitcoin’s value higher.
- Technical Evidence: Hayes points out that Bitcoin’s trading dynamics indicate that after forming a local bottom around $76,500 in March, the stage is set for a substantial rally as the Fed transitions its policy.
- Contrasting Views: While some market participants remain cautious—with Polymarket predicting only 9% probability for a $250K target and 60% expecting a more modest $110K—Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
1. Introduction: A Bold Outlook for Bitcoin
In his latest blog post on April 1, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, forecasted that Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to over $250,000 by the end of 2025. According to Hayes, the primary driver behind this bullish scenario is the anticipated shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE). This policy transition is expected to lower interest rates and flood the market with liquidity, thereby increasing investor demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
2. Fed Policy Shift as the Key Catalyst
Hayes explains that if the Fed fully transitions from QT to QE, it will lead to lower interest rates and more aggressive monetary easing. Although the Fed recently reduced the monthly redemption limit on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion while keeping the MBS redemption unchanged, Chairman Powell’s remarks suggest a possibility of not reinvesting in MBS and instead reallocating funds to U.S. Treasuries. In Hayes’ view, this de facto QE—despite the Fed’s balance sheet appearing flat—will result in a “flood” of dollars entering the market. Such an environment could drive significant demand for Bitcoin, which is increasingly seen as a safe haven against fiat currency inflation.
3. Bitcoin’s Valuation Driven by Market Expectations
Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price is largely driven by market expectations regarding future fiat currency supply. “Bitcoin is traded almost solely on the basis of what the market expects regarding the future supply of fiat money,” he writes. If his analysis regarding the Fed’s policy shift proves correct, Bitcoin will establish a local bottom at around $76,500 in March and then embark on an upward trend, eventually reaching a level near $250,000 by year’s end.
4. Contrasting Forecasts and Market Sentiment
Despite Hayes’ bullish outlook, market sentiment remains divided. According to data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, only 9% of participants expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, while 60% forecast a more modest target of around $110,000. Moreover, with trade tensions and tariff announcements from President Trump looming, global trade friction concerns continue to exert downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Nexo’s digital asset investment platform editor, Stella Zrataleva, comments that while long-term positioning remains unchanged, short-term momentum is highly susceptible to macroeconomic news. This underscores the importance of monitoring both short-term developments and long-term policy trends as the market navigates these uncertainties.
5. Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes’ forecast that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 is built on the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pivot from QT to QE, unleashing a flood of liquidity into the market. While this scenario offers a compelling bullish case driven by expanding fiat supply and renewed investor confidence, external risks—such as potential tariff measures—continue to loom, and overall market sentiment remains mixed.
Investors should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic indicators and policy announcements, as these will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can fully transition into a robust upward trend. Despite divergent forecasts, Hayes’ analysis provides a strong argument for Bitcoin’s long-term potential in an increasingly uncertain monetary environment.
