Main Points:
- Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $250,000 and Ethereum (ETH) hitting $10,000 by December 2025.
- Rising global money supply and renewed quantitative easing underpin the bullish scenario.
- A Fed pivot from QT to QE could propel BTC’s rally from its March low of $76,500 to $250,000.
- Institutional demand for ETH is surging, exemplified by GameSquare’s $250 million treasury program.
- Finder’s June 2025 survey shows average BTC forecasts of $145,167 and a most‑bullish view of $250,000 for year‑end 2025.
- Alternative experts remain cautious, with some predicting BTC to stall between $70,000 and $80,000.
Arthur Hayes’s Bold Year‑End Price Targets
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes declared on July 23, 2025, that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 and Ethereum to $10,000 by the end of the year. In his blog, he argues that mounting inflation pressures and increased government and central bank spending will flood markets with liquidity, driving demand for capped‑supply digital assets. Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s fixed supply—capped at 21 million coins—will amplify price gains as fiat printing accelerates.
Money Supply Expansion: The Fuel for Bitcoin’s Ascent
Hayes pinpoints global money supply growth as a primary catalyst for BTC’s surge. When central banks unleash their “money printers,” liquidity finds its way into scarce assets. For Bitcoin, whose issuance rate is pre‑programmed to halve roughly every four years, rapid fiat expansion translates directly into price acceleration. Hayes notes that renewed quantitative easing (QE) in the U.S. could mirror previous bull markets, igniting a “monster season” for crypto.
Fed Policy Pivot: From QT to QE – A Game Changer for BTC
In May 2025, Hayes outlined a scenario in which the U.S. Federal Reserve shifts from quantitative tightening (QT) back to QE. Under this scenario, he forecasts that Bitcoin’s March 2025 bottom of $76,500 would mark a floor, with subsequent injections lifting BTC toward $250,000 by December. He dismisses the traditional four‑year halving cycle, arguing instead that fiat liquidity cycles now dictate crypto market rhythms.
Ethereum’s Institutional Moment
Hayes highlights a structural shift among institutional investors toward Ethereum and DeFi tokens. His own Maelstrom fund is allocating heavily to ERC‑20 DeFi projects. He cites Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Nasdaq‑listed GameSquare’s recent strategy: GameSquare has increased its crypto treasury limit to $250 million and purchased over 10,000 ETH to deploy in yield‑generating DeFi protocols. Such corporate moves underscore ETH’s evolving role as both an investment asset and a productive treasury tool.
<!– Insert Figure 1 here: “Projected BTC & ETH Price Trajectories to Dec 2025” –>
Comparative Expert Outlooks: Bullish vs. Cautious Voices
While Hayes represents the extreme bull case, Finder’s June 2025 survey of 24 crypto experts yields an average BTC forecast of $145,167 for year‑end 2025, with the most optimistic panelist also citing $250,000 and the most bearish predicting $70,000.
- Bull Case: Institutional adoption, macro hedging, and fiat debasement drive BTC to $250,000.
- Base Case: Balanced view sees BTC around $145,000 based on consensus panel averages.
- Bear Case: Skeptics, including academic skeptics, foresee BTC lingering near $70,000–$80,000 by year‑end.
Broader Market Implications: A New Crypto Cycle?
Hayes argues that we may be entering a new, liquidity‑driven crypto cycle distinct from previous halving‑based patterns. He foresees that renewed Fed easing will trigger a rapid repricing of all major cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum likely to outperform Bitcoin due to expanding DeFi use cases and institutional treasury deployments.
Strategic Takeaways for Investors
- Monitor Central Bank Signals: A pivot toward QE could be the clearest signal for a renewed crypto bull run.
- Diversify Between BTC and ETH: While BTC remains the macro hedge, ETH offers growth potential via DeFi and smart contracts.
- Watch Institutional Flows: Corporate treasury programs and ETFs can provide directional clues.
- Manage Volatility: Even in a bull market, BTC may retest lower support levels before ultimate breakout.
- Evaluate Alternative Forecasts: Align portfolio risk with a spectrum of expert views, from $70,000 to $250,000.
<!– Insert Figure 2 here: “Expert Year‑End 2025 BTC Price Forecasts” –>
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes’s prediction of Bitcoin at $250,000 and Ethereum at $10,000 by the close of 2025 paints a dramatic picture of a liquidity‑fueled crypto resurgence. Backed by fast‑expanding money supply and institutional demand, this “monster season” could redefine digital assets’ place in global portfolios. Yet, a range of expert forecasts—from $70,000 to $250,000 for BTC—reminds investors to balance optimism with caution. As central banks weigh their next policy moves and corporations like GameSquare deepen their crypto commitments, the remainder of 2025 promises to be a pivotal period for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
