Main Points：
- Bitcoin dropped below $115,000 (≈¥11.5 million) as bearish pressure prevailed, but found support at its 75-day moving average.
- CME Ether futures recently closed a two-week-old gap, potentially relieving downward pressure from altcoin weakness on BTC.
- BTC’s downward path may pause, though room remains to test this month’s low near $111,900.
- Upcoming U.S. Fed Watch: The July FOMC minutes and Powell’s remarks in two days are expected to have minimal immediate impact.
- Recent developments: Ethereum has just filled a CME gap between $4,050–$4,100, prompting bullish breakout signals toward $10K ETH.
1. Battle at $115K: Bears Dominating, Support Arrives
Bitcoin (BTC) initially fell under the psychological $115,000 level (~¥11.5 million), with bears holding sway. However, the price found stabilization near the 75-day moving average—suggesting technical support may be kicking in as downside slows.
2. Ether Futures Gap Filled: Alleviating Altcoin Drag
A recent development from the CME: Ether (ETH) futures have “filled the gap” that appeared two weeks prior. In futures-market terms, this means the price retraced to cover a zone left untraded. Filling an ETH gap may reduce selling pressure on altcoins and thus lighten burden on BTC’s decline.
3. Downside Still Exists—but Stabilization Possible
Although support has been found, BTC’s path isn’t entirely clear. There remains slight downward potential toward this month’s low—around $111,900 (≈¥11.19 million)—though the recent technical support may act as a cushion.
4. Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and Powell Speech
Markets await the July FOMC minutes and remarks from Fed Chair Powell in two days. Given that the FOMC occurred before the most recent U.S. jobs data, those minutes may no longer reflect fresh economic realities. Thus, their impact on crypto markets is expected to be limited.
5. New Pressure or Momentum? Ethereum’s Gap Closure Adds Context
Separately, Ethereum has just filled its CME futures gap at $4,050–$4,100—a key technical development. Analysts are now observing a confirmed golden cross (bullish moving-average crossover) and a breakout past a long-term descending resistance. With ETH supply on exchanges now at a nine‑year low, signs of accumulation are mounting, and some target $10K ETH next.
6. Technical Patterns and Forward Considerations
- Bitcoin: The strength of the 75-day MA support could signal a base—momentum metrics will be watched to see if BTC rebounds or drifts lower.
- Ethereum: A filled gap and bullish technical signals may invite renewed investor interest—and perhaps spill over into BTC as risk sentiment improves.
- Macro Factors: With macro uncertainty (Fed minutes, Powell) looming, markets could remain jittery—but any dovish-toned messages could be a tailwind.
Conclusion
The technical skirmish at the $115K level reveals mounting pressure from bears, yet seeming stabilization at the 75-day moving average offers some relief. ETH’s filled futures gap and bullish signals may relieve systemic altcoin weakness, providing indirect support for BTC. Macro catalysts are on the horizon, though immediate impact may be muted. A cautious but watchful approach is warranted: BTC may consolidate or slightly rebound, while ETH presents compelling breakout potential.
