Main Points:
- Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between roughly $100,400 and $111,500 (translated from ¥14.4 million–¥16.1 million JPY) from early June through early July 2025.
- Macro headwinds, notably renewed U.S.–Japan tariff tensions tied to President Trump’s proposals, have overshadowed bullish momentum.
- Altcoins underperformed in H1 2025, with Ethereum down ~25% and Solana down ~17%, though certain meme and Layer-2 projects show pockets of strength.
- Historical data suggest July often brings positive Bitcoin returns (median +8.09%), setting the stage for a potential breakout or fresh lows near $101,000.
- Key levels: US$111,500 is resistance; US$100,400 is support. A daily close above or below these levels will likely determine the next directional trend.
Bitcoin Range Trading in Late June
From early June, Bitcoin oscillated between a support zone near ¥14,400,000 ($100,400) and resistance at ¥16,100,000 ($111,500). After rallying from ¥15,171,856 on June 1 to a peak of ¥15,993,884, price retraced to a mid-June low of ¥14,395,223 before stabilizing around ¥15,204,799 by July 1. This consolidation reflects market indecision amid mixed on-chain signals and subdued volume.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Trump Tariffs and Dollar Dynamics
Renewed speculation about President Trump imposing tariffs on Japanese imports has weighed on risk assets, including crypto. Fears of escalating U.S.–Japan trade friction have seen investors adopt a cautious stance, undermining Bitcoin’s price correlation with broader markets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar hovered near multi-year lows after dovish Fed comments, limiting safe-haven flows into crypto.
Altcoin Market Under Pressure
In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin outperformed the broader market, gaining ~13% while flagship altcoins like Ethereum and Solana declined significantly (–25% and –17%, respectively). Analyst consensus suggests a muted altseason, though some Layer 2 and meme projects—such as Little Pepe (LILPEPE), Bonk (BONK), and Sonic—are attracting speculative flows due to strong community engagement and staking incentives.
Historical July Trends and Outlook
July has historically been favorable for Bitcoin, with a median monthly return of +8.09% over the past decade. Even in rangebound phases, midsummer often triggers renewed momentum into year-end, as macro clarity on rate cuts or fiscal policy emerges. However, a failure to hold near $100,400 could invite deeper corrections toward $95,000, while a decisive break above $111,500 may catalyze a fresh bull run toward $120,000–$130,000.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $111,500 (¥16,100,000) — clear daily close above could signal a bullish breakout.
- Support: $100,400 (¥14,400,000) — breach likely accelerates selling pressure.
- Intermediate Zone: $105,000–$108,000 (¥15,000,000–¥15,500,000) — range control here indicates market indecision.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s early July consolidation reflects a tug-of-war between lingering macro uncertainties—especially around U.S.–Japan trade tensions—and an otherwise constructive seasonal setup. While altcoins remain largely weighed down, selective sectors like Layer 2 networks and community-driven memecoins offer alternative alpha opportunities. Traders should monitor the $100,400–$111,500 USD corridor closely; a breakout on either side is poised to set the tone for the coming months.
