Main Points :
- Roughly 41.5% of circulating XRP—about 26.5 billion tokens—remains at a loss, despite XRP trading above $2.00.
- Profit-taking surged among long-term holders since September, with daily realized gains jumping 240% to $220M/day.
- XRP futures open interest plunged from $10B to $3.8B, indicating a major trader exit.
- Yet fundamentals remain strong: SEC dispute resolved, $500M raised, plus acquisitions of Palisade and Hidden Roads.
- Major institutions launched spot XRP ETFs in November 2025, including Franklin Templeton and Bitwise.
- Canary Capital’s ETF already holds over $200M in inflows.
Introduction
Throughout 2025, Ripple’s native token XRP has presented one of the more interesting contradictions in the digital asset market. On one hand, the token is trading above the psychologically important $2.00 level, its highest sustained price band in years. On the other hand, new on-chain data shows that over 41.5% of all circulating XRP is currently held at a loss, raising questions about investor sentiment and near-term price direction.
This article explores this contradiction in depth, analyzing unrealized loss levels, futures market behavior, long-term holder actions, and the dramatic difference between trading sentiment and Ripple’s improving fundamentals. Additional context from broader crypto market developments in late 2025 is also included to provide a complete picture for readers who are exploring new crypto opportunities or seeking insights into blockchain-based real-world use cases.Insert Graph Here: XRP Price Trend (Placeholder Concept Chart)
1 — The Unrealized Loss Paradox: Why 41.5% of XRP Supply Is Underwater
According to recent analytics reports, roughly 26.5 billion XRP—representing 41.5% of current circulating supply—is held at a loss even with XRP above $2.00. The reason is structural: trading volumes throughout 2025 were heavily concentrated in the higher price zones, especially during speculative surges tied to U.S. political headlines, ETF anticipation, and legal developments.
When momentum faded, many late buyers were left holding positions above their entry points, pushing the percentage of profitable supply to only 58.5%, the lowest level since Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024, when the market saw a similar pattern of over-enthusiastic buying in the high range.
Such deep underwater supply tends to create mid-term price friction. When prices rise, investors trapped at breakeven often sell aggressively, slowing rallies. This dynamic is observable today.
2 — Futures Market Weakening: Open Interest Drops From $10B to $3.8B
Data from CoinGlass indicates a steep decline in XRP futures open interest:
- Start of 2025: ~$10 billion
- Current level: ~$3.8 billion
This collapse is not simply contraction—it signifies a forced de-leveraging of speculative positions.
Less leverage usually means:
- Lower volatility
- A shift from “hot money” traders to long-term participants
- Reduced likelihood of liquidation-driven pumps or crashes
For readers evaluating new crypto assets, it is critical to note that declining open interest is not inherently bearish; it can be a sign of market health if fundamentals strengthen simultaneously—which is exactly the case for XRP.
3 — Long-Term Holders Are Taking Profits at Record Levels
Another major trend is the surge in profit-taking from long-term holders who accumulated XRP below the $1.00 mark. Since September:
- Realized gains surged 240%
- Holders are locking in approximately $220M per day
- Profit cycles indicate renewed liquidity and market efficiency
Historically, high long-term-holder profit-taking often precedes accumulation phases by new buyers. It can reset the market, removing selling pressure once profit-taking slows. For investors looking for entry timing, this dynamic is crucial.
4 — Fundamentals Strengthen: Ripple Ends SEC Conflict and Expands Aggressively
Despite short-term market pressures, XRP’s fundamental narrative is the strongest it has been in years. Ripple has:
- Resolved its multi-year conflict with the U.S. SEC
- Completed $500 million in strategic fundraising
- Acquired two major infrastructure firms:
- Palisade (enterprise settlement)
- Hidden Roads (cross-border liquidity solutions)
These moves expand RippleNet’s technical scope, accelerate institutional on-ramps, and widen XRP’s real-world use-cases. Many industry analysts note that Ripple is slowly evolving into a hybrid settlement and financial infrastructure company rather than a pure crypto entity.
Combined with regulatory clarity, these developments form the foundation for XRP’s re-entry into institutional portfolios.
5 — Institutional Demand Surges: Spot XRP ETFs Launch in November 2025
The biggest driver of renewed interest is the debut of spot XRP ETFs in the United States and selected global markets. Major issuers include:
- Franklin Templeton
- Bitwise
- Canary Capital
Among them, Canary Capital’s ETF received over $200 million in early inflows, a level that outperformed expectations for a non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum ETF.
The timing is significant. Following the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and Ethereum ETFs in early 2025, institutional appetite has shifted toward mid-cap established networks with clear regulatory status and growing real-world usage. XRP fits this new institutional thesis.
This demand will likely grow as analysts expect corporate cross-border settlement using blockchain to reach $4 trillion annually by 2030.
6 — XRP in the Context of 2025: Macro Trends, Liquidity Flows, and Crypto Rotation
To provide additional perspective beyond the original article, here are the broader 2025 themes influencing XRP:
1. Rotation From Bitcoin to Real-World Utility Tokens
Funds increasingly diversify into tokens that demonstrate stable cash-flow usage models, such as:
- Cross-border settlement assets
- Stablecoin liquidity tokens
- Tokenized treasury infrastructure assets
XRP is among the top beneficiaries.
2. Political Influence on U.S. Crypto Regulation
Following the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, clarity arrived in areas that previously hindered institutional adoption. XRP is one of the clearest regulatory winners.
3. Reduced ETF Premium and Arbitrage Growth
As ETF arbitrage strategies deepen, price volatility in large-cap tokens stabilizes. XRP’s variance has declined compared to 2021–2022 cycles.
4. Corporate Use-Cases Expanding
Ripple’s partnerships in APAC and Middle East banking systems have grown steadily, increasing demand for transparent settlement assets.
These macro forces shape the long-term potential for XRP investors.
Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroad but Fundamentals Stronger Than Ever
XRP today sits at a critical intersection:
- Short-term sentiment is cautious, with high unrealized losses and declining futures activity.
- Long-term fundamentals are stronger than at any point in the last five years, supported by regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, major acquisitions, and expanding real-world use-cases.
- ETF inflows validate XRP’s maturity as an asset class beyond trading speculation.
For investors seeking new opportunities in crypto assets—especially those with real-world applications and growing institutional demand—XRP remains one of the most structurally compelling tokens heading into 2026.
