Main Points:
- Bitcoin’s price momentum is confronting its first meaningful resistance in the $93K–$95K zone, corresponding to the 111‑day moving average (111DMA) at $91,300 and the average cost basis of short‑term holders at $93,200.
- On‑chain metrics show that long‑term holders continue to accumulate, with 254,000 BTC entering the long‑term cohort since the most recent low, indicating strong HODL sentiment.
- Profit‑taking pressure is likely to intensify around $99,900, where long‑term holders historically realize gains at an average of +350% unrealized profit.
- A surge past $100K could encounter minimal resistance due to lower acquisition volume in that range, potentially paving the way for a new all‑time high (ATH).
- Sustained upward momentum will require robust buying demand to absorb latent sell pressure in the $95K–$98K “loss‑bearing” zone.
1. Introduction: A Market at a Turning Point
On April 30, 2025, Glassnode released its latest “Week On‑Chain” report, spotlighting a pivotal juncture for Bitcoin’s recovery rally. After a protracted consolidation phase, BTC’s spot price ascended above key thresholds—but now finds itself testing critical resistance levels that will determine whether bulls can sustain momentum or if bears will reassert control . In parallel, on‑chain data reveal that long‑term holders (LTHs) remain largely inactive on the sell side, signaling enduring confidence among investors.
2. Key Technical Levels: The First Barrier to Break
Bitcoin’s upward trajectory has encountered its “first wave” of resistance at two pivotal metrics:
- 111‑Day Moving Average (111DMA): $91,300
- Short‑Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis: $93,200
The convergence of these levels within the $93K–$95K price band represents the range‑low of a multi‑month consolidation that spanned November 2024 to February 2025. Clearing and sustaining above this band is essential to affirm the strength of the current uptrend. Failure to hold above these metrics could re‑expose BTC to bearish pressure, potentially slingshotting it back into a corrective phase.
3. Long‑Term Holder Accumulation: HODLers Take the Helm
One of the report’s most compelling findings is the resilience of LTHs in the face of market volatility:
- Since the latest price trough, 254,000 BTC have been dormant for at least 155 days, classifying them as long‑term holdings.
- Much of this accumulation occurred at price levels above $95K, underscoring LTH conviction in Bitcoin’s bullish narrative.
- The sustained increase in coins moving into LTH cohorts signals that holders are prioritizing accumulation over profit‑taking, even as short‑term volatility intensifies.
This behavior aligns with historical cycles where LTHs only begin to offload supply once unrealized gains breach the +350% threshold.
4. Projected Profit‑Taking Zone: The $99,900 Inflection
Analyzing past cycles, Glassnode notes that LTHs tend to intensify selling when their average unrealized gains approach +350%. Given current cost bases, this inflection point is projected to occur near $99,900. As Bitcoin approaches this zone:
- Selling pressure may mount, requiring additional buy‑side absorption to maintain upward momentum.
- The market could experience a temporary plateau or pullback as profit‑taking and new demand battle for dominance.
Traders should closely monitor order book dynamics and derivative positioning to gauge whether whales are initiating distributions at these levels.
5. The Loss‑Bearing Zone: $95K–$98K Hurdle
Between $95K and $98K, a significant volume of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) currently lie at a loss. When spot price enters this range:
- Some investors who previously bought in this band may capitulate, exacerbating sell‑side pressure.
- Conversely, bargain hunters might step in to acquire dip‑opportunities, potentially mitigating downward moves.
Ultimately, the balance of these forces will dictate whether BTC can clear the overhead resistance and march toward the $100K psychological milestone.
6. Above $100K: A Clearer Path to ATH?
If Bitcoin successfully eclipses the $100K threshold, on‑chain data suggest minimal resistance awaits:
- Acquisition volume above $100K to date has been relatively modest, meaning fewer coins would be underwater and primed for sale.
- With lower overhead supply in that region, the path to a new ATH could be less obstructed, contingent on sustained demand from both institutional and retail cohorts.
However, macroeconomic factors—such as regulatory developments, macro policy shifts, and capital flow trends—will also play a decisive role in sustaining market euphoria.
7. Broader Trends and Institutional Inflows
Beyond on‑chain metrics, several broader trends are reinforcing Bitcoin’s current trajectory:
- ETF Flows: Q1 2025 saw record inflows into Bitcoin spot and futures ETFs, reflecting growing institutional adoption in North America and Europe.
- Derivatives Markets: Perpetual futures funding rates have remained mildly positive, indicating that leveraged traders maintain a net bullish stance.
- Macro Backdrop: Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty have driven some capital toward Bitcoin as a hedge, echoing behavior seen during the 2018–2019 market cycles.
These factors, combined with the weak distribution from LTHs, present a confluence of bullish undercurrents that could propel BTC beyond its prior highs.
8. Risks and Caveats: Volatility and Regulatory Headwinds
Despite the optimistic setup, several risks loom:
- Volatility Spikes: Options markets show elevated implied volatility, signaling potential for sharp, unpredictable price swings in either direction.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Upcoming regulations in major jurisdictions (e.g., potential ETF approvals in Asia, tax treatment changes in the EU) could introduce market friction.
- Macro Shocks: A sudden pivot in interest rate expectations or unexpected macroeconomic data releases could trigger rapid deleveraging across crypto markets.
Prudent investors will employ disciplined risk management strategies—such as staggered entries and defined stop‑loss thresholds—to navigate these uncertainties.
9. Conclusion: Build‑Up to a Defining Moment
Bitcoin’s current rally represents more than a simple retracement; it reflects a structural reset in market dynamics. The convergence of technical breakouts, steadfast LTH accumulation, and robust institutional flows has set the stage for a critical test of resistance in the $93K–$95K zone. How the market reacts here will shape BTC’s trajectory for the remainder of 2025:
- A decisive break and hold above these levels could unleash a powerful rally toward—and potentially beyond—the $100K mark.
- Failure to overcome resistance may precipitate a retest of lower support bands, reminding participants of the market’s intrinsic volatility.
As on‑chain and technical indicators signal a turning point, investors and traders alike should be prepared for heightened volatility and use this inflection as an opportunity to reassess both conviction and risk tolerance.
