Main Points:
- Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart now estimate a 90%+ approval probability for most spot altcoin ETFs, with Litecoin, Solana, and XRP at 95% odds and others like Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche at 90%.
- The SEC’s active engagement—requesting amended filings for Solana ETFs—signals a constructive review process rather than simple delays.
- Multiple issuers, including Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Grayscale, and Bitwise, have filed or amended spot altcoin ETF proposals under Form S-1 and Rule 19b-4.
- The SEC appears to view these major altcoins as commodities, placing them outside securities jurisdiction and smoothing the path for approvals.
- Final approvals and trading launches could take several more months, potentially extending into Q4 2025, as the SEC completes its 30-day review cycles.
1. A New Era for Altcoin ETFs
Since the landmark approvals of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in early 2025, asset managers have raced to extend that success to other major cryptocurrencies. After months of relative silence, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart published an update on June 20, 2025, dramatically boosting their odds for altcoin ETF approvals to 90% or higher. This shift reflects not only constructive dialogue between issuers and the SEC but also a broader regulatory acknowledgment of the crypto market’s maturation.
1.1 Why the SEC’s Stance Matters
Historically, the SEC has hesitated to approve spot crypto ETFs over concerns about market manipulation, custody, and surveillance-sharing arrangements. However, the success of Bitcoin ETFs—whose combined assets under management (AUM) exceeded $70 billion within the first year—has laid the groundwork for approvals beyond BTC. By treating altcoins as “commodities” rather than securities, the SEC effectively reduces its oversight constraints, accelerating the review process for S-1 and 19b-4 filings.
2. Who’s in the Race? Key ETF Applicants
Several major asset managers have filed spot altcoin ETF applications. Among them:
| Issuer | Proposed ETFs | Filing Date | SEC Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin Templeton | SOL, XRP | June 2025 | Amendment request |
| BlackRock | SOL, ADA, DOT | May 2025 | Under review |
| Grayscale | LTC, DOGE, AVAX | April 2025 | Under review |
| Bitwise | HBAR, ADA | March 2025 | Under review |
| Invesco & Galaxy | SOL | June 2025 | Amendment request |
These issuers benefit from the SEC’s proactive stance—rather than ignoring applications, the Commission has explicitly requested amended S-1 filings for spot Solana ETFs, a signal that substantive review is underway.
3. Asset-by-Asset Breakdown
3.1 Litecoin (LTC)
- Odds: 95%
- Rationale: LTC’s long history as one of the earliest Bitcoin derivatives, coupled with past CFTC commodity designations, places it at the front of the approval queue.
3.2 Solana (SOL)
- Odds: 95%
- Rationale: High throughput, growing DeFi ecosystem, and multiple filings (Invesco, Franklin Templeton) have prompted the SEC to request further S-1 details, a strong sign of imminent approval.
3.3 Ripple (XRP)
- Odds: 95%
- Rationale: Ripple’s ongoing legal settlement progress and recent court opinions have strengthened its commodity classification, bolstering ETF approval prospects.
3.4 Dogecoin (DOGE) & Cardano (ADA)
- Odds: 90% each
- Rationale: Both benefit from huge retail followings and solid trading volumes. Ticket to market subject to final compliance checks.
3.5 Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), Avalanche (AVAX)
- Odds: 90% each
- Rationale: Institutional interest in multi-chain ecosystems and tokenized real-world assets supports strong demand forecasts.
4. Timeline to Trading
- Amendment Requests (June 2025): SEC sent comments requiring clarifications and risk disclosures on S-1 forms, especially for Solana ETFs.
- 30-Day Review Rule: Once amendments are filed, the SEC has 30 days to approve, disapprove, or extend; expect decisions by late July to early August 2025 for initial filings.
- Final Approvals (Q3–Q4 2025): Considering staggered amendment filings, the bulk of spot altcoin ETFs could launch between September and December 2025, aligning with heavy year-end trading cycles.
5. Market Implications for Investors
- Portfolio Diversification: Spot ETFs provide regulated access to altcoins without direct custody risks—appealing for institutional and retail investors alike.
- Fee Revenue: Asset managers anticipate charging 0.20–0.30% management fees; with $10 billion in AUM, annual fee revenue per ETF could reach $20–$30 million.
- Price Impact: ETF anticipation often precedes inflows; Litecoin and XRP prices have already seen 5–10% gains since the probability upgrade.
- Regulatory Clarity: A series of approvals cements the SEC’s commodity-based approach, potentially differentiating U.S. markets from more restrictive jurisdictions.
Conclusion
The landmark shift—Bloomberg analysts’ upgrade to 90%+ odds—marks a defining moment for altcoin ETFs. With the SEC actively engaging applicants, viewing major tokens as commodities, and following through with amendment requests, we are likely on the cusp of a broad rollout of spot altcoin ETFs in the U.S. By late 2025, investors should have regulated ETF vehicles for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche, unlocking new avenues for diversification and institutional capital in the cryptocurrency spac
