Main Points :
- Strong buyer conviction shown by concentrated Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) in Bitcoin spot market
- Coinbase and Binance netflow shifts hint at reaccumulation and liquidity regime reversal
- Bitcoin needs to break through $113,650 resistance to confirm bullish breakout
- Historical seasonal weakness in September could pose risk if resistance fails
- On‑chain metrics confirm accumulation and investor profitability
1. Buyer Conviction in Spot Market: Concentrated Cost Basis Distribution
Data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD)—an on‑chain indicator showing price ranges where significant supply was acquired—demonstrates a sharply different pattern compared to Ethereum. While ETH flows remain sparse, Bitcoin transactions are densely clustered around recent price levels. This clustering indicates strong buyer conviction, and historically, such spot‑market support has proven more durable than futures‑driven momentum .
2. Exchange Flows Signal Reaccumulation: Coinbase and Binance Trends
According to CryptoQuant, Coinbase saw a rapid surge in net inflows between August 25 and 31, right after its 30‑day simple moving average (SMA) had fallen to its lowest level since early 2023. Such sharp reversals from multi‑year troughs often signal shifts in liquidity or preparation for higher trading activity.
Meanwhile, Binance reached its highest 30‑day SMA net inflow since July 2024 around July 25 and August 25—levels that have historically aligned with reaccumulation phases before local highs. The simultaneous rebound in Coinbase flows and peaks in Binance inflows may lay the groundwork for a sustained upside move.
3. Technical Threshold: Breaking Above $113,650 as Bullish Confirmation
Bitcoin recently rebounded sharply from a low of around $107,300—near short‑term realized price levels—leveraging that zone as support. It then rallied past $109,900 in New York trading. Short‑term charts show a bullish structural shift, with the 4‑hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above 50, signaling growing bullish conviction.
To sustain this recovery, Bitcoin must break clearly above the $112,500–$113,650 resistance zone. A daily close above $113,650 would invalidate the downtrend line that capped price over the past two weeks and could open the path toward subsequent liquidity targets around $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
4. Historical Risks: September’s Seasonal Weakness
Despite these positive signs, history warns that September often brings bearish volatility for Bitcoin. Should the $113,650 level fail to hold or break convincingly, downside risks remain—potentially back toward the $105,000 to $100,000 range.
5. On-chain Metrics: Profitability, Accumulation, and Market Dynamics
Additional on‑chain observables reinforce the bullish narrative. After reclaiming roughly $107K, many investors are now back in profit, and realized profits are high, suggesting a phase of renewed HODLing and minimized distribution.
Moreover, Glassnode’s “Week On‑chain” report highlights that the Short‑Term Holder (STH) cost basis around $97.6K continues to act as pivotal support, while the upper band near $115.4K emerges as the first significant resistance should price discovery accelerate.
Conclusion
In summary, multiple indicators—from cost basis clustering and exchange netflow shifts to technical breakout levels and on‑chain holder behavior—suggest a growing probability of a sustained Bitcoin spot market recovery. A daily close above $113,650 could unlock further upside potential toward $119K, provided seasonal headwinds in September are managed. However, if that resistance proves impenetrable, downside toward $100K remains a realistic risk.
For investors and blockchain practitioners scouting new crypto opportunities or next revenue streams, these dynamics underscore the importance of monitoring both on‑chain liquidity structures and technical thresholds in tandem.
