Main Points:
- XRP price risks collapse according to analysts, lacking technical support below current levels.
- Ripple has officially ended its long-standing lawsuit with the U.S. SEC.
- New legal trouble emerges from the state of Oregon, reigniting securities classification debates.
- Coinbase pushes back against Oregon’s claims and expands XRP futures trading via CFTC approval.
- Legal clarity remains fragmented between federal and state jurisdictions, affecting investor confidence.
XRP Price Under Pressure: Analysts Ring the Alarm
Cryptocurrency influencer @trading_axe recently sounded the alarm on XRP’s price trajectory, likening it to being “on the edge of a cliff.” Accompanied by a weekly candlestick chart, the analysis suggests that if XRP drops below its current levels, there are no strong support zones to prevent a freefall. This technical vulnerability signals high risk for investors if selling momentum builds.
This warning contrasts sharply with earlier optimism surrounding XRP, especially after its impressive six-month upward streak that once suggested the token might surpass Ethereum in performance. The current bearish sentiment may test the resolve of long-term holders who believed XRP’s fundamentals were turning the corner.
Ripple’s Federal Lawsuit Ends — A Historic Legal Milestone
Despite the current market uncertainty, Ripple Labs recently achieved a long-awaited legal victory: the formal conclusion of its lawsuit with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed in a video statement that the legal saga, which began in December 2020, had finally ended.
The lawsuit accused Ripple, Garlinghouse, and co-founder Chris Larsen of offering unregistered securities through XRP sales. While charges against the executives were dropped in October 2023, Ripple as a company remained entangled in legal proceedings until now. Garlinghouse used the occasion to criticize the SEC and its former chairman, Gary Gensler, stating that the Commission’s actions had robbed XRP investors of $15 billion in value.
Importantly, a U.S. federal court previously ruled that XRP sold on exchanges was not a security, a rare and partial win in the SEC’s typically aggressive stance on cryptocurrencies. However, this clarity hasn’t translated into market calm.
New Legal Threat from Oregon: The Securities Debate Rekindled
Just as Ripple was beginning to emerge from the shadow of federal litigation, a new legal hurdle surfaced. The Attorney General of Oregon included XRP in a lawsuit originally filed against major U.S. exchange Coinbase. The complaint alleges that XRP, along with Chainlink (LINK), Uniswap (UNI), and 28 other tokens, were sold as unregistered securities under state law.
This state-level assertion contradicts the earlier federal decision, spotlighting a key challenge in U.S. crypto regulation: legal fragmentation. States can, and increasingly do, pursue their own interpretations of what constitutes a “security,” undermining the uniformity Ripple hoped to achieve.
Coinbase’s Response: A Battle for Regulatory Logic
Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, has vehemently opposed the Oregon complaint. Grewal pointed out that the state lawsuit ignores previous court rulings, including those where XRP was not considered a security. He further argued that it disrespects recent more crypto-friendly SEC behavior under its current leadership.
Coinbase is now caught in a dual-front battle — defending itself from state accusations while pushing forward its business expansion. The lack of coordination between federal and state regulators continues to be a costly problem for crypto businesses and investors alike.
Expansion Despite Adversity: XRP Futures Trading Approved
In a bid to strengthen its product offerings, Coinbase has launched XRP futures contracts through its derivatives platform, with full approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This marks a significant development, as it positions XRP as a more mature asset despite the surrounding legal uncertainties.
The launch could drive institutional interest in XRP, offering new risk management tools and speculative opportunities. However, whether this will counteract bearish pressure from retail traders remains to be seen.
Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior
The crypto market has long been shaped not just by technical developments and regulatory milestones, but by sentiment. XRP’s community has been known for its resilience, often doubling down during periods of adversity. However, this time, the mood feels different.
With price warnings, unresolved legal risks at the state level, and a regulatory environment still in flux, the investment case for XRP is more complex than ever. This poses a dilemma for crypto investors seeking both innovation and regulatory clarity.
Ripple’s Path Forward — Legal Certainty vs. Market Volatility
Ripple’s journey is far from over. While it has closed one chapter with the SEC, the emergence of state-level litigation in Oregon demonstrates that the U.S. legal landscape for crypto remains fragmented and volatile. Investors must now navigate a market where price action, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption all pull in different directions.
The future of XRP hinges on resolving these contradictions. Legal clarity — not just from courts, but also from comprehensive legislative reform — is urgently needed to unlock the token’s potential. Until then, XRP remains a high-risk, high-reward asset that requires careful consideration from traders, developers, and institutional investors alike.
