Main Points:
- Presto’s quantitative analysis predicts Bitcoin reaching $210,000 by December 2025.
- Institutional adoption and global liquidity expansion are cited as primary drivers.
- Recent price fluctuations viewed as a “healthy correction,” reinforcing mainstream legitimacy.
- Bitcoin’s dual role as a “risk asset” and “digital gold” underscores its maturation.
- Ethereum (ETH) outlook remains positive, with Presto maintaining its ETH/BTC ratio rebound target.
- Wider market forecasts by Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI align on six-figure Bitcoin prices, driven by ETF inflows and macro hedging.
1. Eyeing $210,000: The Presto Projection
Peter Chan, Head of Research at quantitative trading firm Presto, reaffirmed a $210,000 price target for Bitcoin (BTC) in an April 28 interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia. Chan attributes this bullish forecast to two pivotal factors:
- Institutional Adoption: Major financial institutions, from hedge funds to corporate treasuries, are increasingly allocating a portion of their reserves to Bitcoin, drawn by its low correlation with traditional assets.
- Global Liquidity Expansion: Central bank policies and coordinated stimulus have injected unprecedented liquidity into markets, some of which is flowing into digital assets.
Despite headwinds from tighter monetary conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty earlier in 2025, Chan described the recent downtrend—from Bitcoin’s January peak near $109,000 back into the $90,000 range—as a “healthy correction.” This retracement, he argues, has weeded out speculative retail froth and set a firmer foundation for institutional confidence.
2. Bitcoin’s Dual Identity: Risk Asset and Digital Gold
Chan emphasized Bitcoin’s bipolar nature:
- Risk Asset: During bullish cycles driven by network growth and adoption, BTC behaves akin to high-beta equities.
- Digital Gold: In episodic market turmoil—such as conflict-driven capital flight or banking crises—Bitcoin can exhibit safe-haven characteristics, similar to gold.
He pointed to two historical precedents: the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, where Bitcoin briefly decoupled from equities and rallied alongside gold. However, in the most recent bout of macro jitters, BTC underperformed gold—something Chan believes will reverse by year-end, with Bitcoin “catching up” and potentially outperforming traditional safe havens.
3. Ethereum Outlook: Betting on the ETH/BTC Rebound
While the spotlight often shines on Bitcoin, Presto’s research also maintains a bullish stance on Ethereum (ETH). Chan reiterated the firm’s December 2024 projection that the ETH/BTC ratio would recover from its multi-year lows around 0.019 back toward 0.05—driven by:
- Continued network upgrades enhancing scalability and reducing fees (e.g., sharding roadmap progress).
- Growing institutional interest in DeFi and smart-contract use cases, which lean heavily on Ethereum’s ecosystem.
Despite ETH’s underperformance in early 2025, Chan remains confident that ongoing protocol improvements and developer activity will fuel a broad-based rebound against Bitcoin.
4. Reinforcing the Bull Case: Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows
Presto’s forecast aligns with a broader industry consensus. Recent research from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI suggests that institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), could drive prices toward—or beyond—six figures by year-end:
- Standard Chartered: Projects Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by December 2025, with an intermediate surge to $120,000 in Q2 2025, citing strategic reallocation away from U.S. assets amid tariff and Fed-independence concerns.
- Intellectia AI: Anticipates Bitcoin more than doubling in 2025 as traders hedge macroeconomic risks, though warns of black-swan events disrupting trajectories.
Such consensus underscores a powerful feedback loop: ETF inflows drive price appreciation, which in turn attracts further institutional allocation, bolstering liquidity and market depth.
5. Recent Market Dynamics: Healthy Volatility
April 2025 has seen Bitcoin oscillate between $76,000 and $95,000, marked by:
- ETF Record Flows: Weekly net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $3.4 billion, ranking among the top three on record.
- Retail Apathy: Google Trends data shows retail interest remains subdued, suggesting current rallies are institution-driven.
- Whale Accumulation: On-chain metrics reveal large‐scale hodlers loading up during pullbacks, indicating conviction among seasoned investors.
Chan views this volatility as constructive: by shaking out weak hands, the market emerges more robust, with a concentrated core of long-term, institutionally backed participants.
6. Risks and Caveats: The Road to $210K Isn’t Linear
While the bullish narrative is compelling, several risks could derail forecasts:
- Regulatory Shocks: Major clampdowns on spot Bitcoin ETFs or custodial restrictions could trigger rapid outflows.
- Monetary Policy Shifts: A sudden pivot to aggressive rate hikes could drain speculative liquidity from risk assets.
- Geopolitical Crisis: While Bitcoin can act as a safe haven, extreme disruptions to internet connectivity or mining operations (e.g., regional blackouts) pose unique threats.
Presto acknowledges these contingencies, noting that while their projection is data-driven, “any black swan … can disrupt trajectories.”
Conclusion: A Bullish Blueprint for Bitcoin
Presto’s projection of $210,000 by end-2025 stands on a foundation of institutional adoption, liquidity expansion, and network maturation. Coupled with corroborating forecasts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI, the consensus narrative positions Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset on track for historic gains. Nonetheless, investors must remain vigilant of regulatory, monetary, and operational risks that could punctuate the bull run.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin fulfills its six-figure destiny hinges on its ability to navigate market turbulence, bolster infrastructure resilience, and attract enduring institutional capital—transforming from a niche speculative token into a cornerstone of the global financial ecosystem.
