Main Points:
- The U.S. Treasury has ramped up “off‑the‑run” bond buybacks to bolster market liquidity and lower yields.
- Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes warns this may be the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $100,000, previewing his upcoming “BBC Bazooka” report.
- Best‑selling author Robert Kiyosaki forecasts Bitcoin reaching $180,000–$200,000 by year‑end amid continued liquidity injections.
- Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening U.S. dollar could further fuel risk asset rallies.
- Historical patterns suggest that liquidity‑driven interventions often precede major rebounds in Bitcoin and other speculative assets.
Background on the U.S. Treasury Buyback Program
In May 2024, the U.S. Treasury resumed a regular program to repurchase “off‑the‑run” securities—older issues with lower trading volumes—and replace them with “on‑the‑run” bonds, the most recently issued and liquid securities. The program has two primary objectives: supporting market liquidity by allowing investors to sell less‑traded issues, and managing the Treasury’s own cash balances to smooth issuance and borrowing costs over time. A recent Treasury report highlights that buybacks of shorter‑ and longer‑dated maturities have been filled more consistently, suggesting robust participation by market makers and dealers.
This liquidity‑support mechanism functions much like a secondary tool for monetary easing—while the Federal Reserve cuts rates directly, the Treasury’s buybacks indirectly lower yields and improve conditions for borrowing by banks, corporations, and consumers.
Impact on Market Liquidity and Interest Rates
By reducing the outstanding supply of less‑liquid Treasurys, buybacks tend to bid up the prices of those securities and, by extension, pull down yields across the curve. Lower yields on government debt generally translate to reduced borrowing costs, encouraging spending and investment. In turn, ample liquidity often finds its way into risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Analysts note that these Treasury operations act as a “liquidity bazooka,” complementing Fed policies by expanding the effective money supply in private markets.
Recent data shows the U.S. Dollar Index falling to a three‑year low, pressured by political tensions over Fed independence and dovish expectations for rate cuts. As the dollar weakens, non‑dollar assets like Bitcoin often benefit from increased demand as alternative stores of value.
Arthur Hayes’ Bold Bitcoin Forecast
Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, posted on April 21 that this might be the “last chance” to purchase Bitcoin under $100,000 before a major rally. He teased an upcoming analytical report dubbed the “BBC Bazooka,” linking Treasury buybacks to an impending surge in BTC prices. On Cointelegraph, Hayes projected that expanded liquidity injections could directly catalyze the next leg up for Bitcoin, potentially re‑testing its all‑time high near $73,000 and ultimately targeting $100,000 .
Hayes’ sentiment echoes broader market positioning: long‑term holders are increasing their stake, and on‑chain metrics show reduced selling pressure. If his thesis proves correct, investors with exposure below six figures will look back on this moment as a pivotal entry point.
Robert Kiyosaki’s Bullish Outlook
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, reiterated his view on April 20 that Bitcoin—then trading around $84,000—could soar to between $180,000 and $200,000 before the end of 2025. Kiyosaki frames BTC as the ultimate hedge against inflation and fiscal excess, arguing that continued Treasury and Fed interventions will erode trust in fiat currencies and drive capital into decentralized alternatives.
His prediction isn’t isolated: Finbold and TokenPost both report his conviction that the coming liquidity wave and macro uncertainty will underpin an unprecedented uptrend for Bitcoin this year.
Historical Precedents and Patterns
Looking back, major liquidity events—such as the Fed’s March 2020 rate cuts—preceded sharp drawdowns followed by explosive recoveries in Bitcoin. After the 2020 emergency cut, Bitcoin initially plunged nearly 40% but rebounded to new highs within months. Similarly, gold’s 2025 rally—up roughly 30% year‑to‑date—foreshadows the appetite for alternative stores of value amid faltering traditional markets.
Patterns in past buyback cycles suggest that once yield curves normalize and funding pressures ease, capital quickly rotates into higher‑beta assets. If the Treasury scales up its repurchase program, we may witness a repeat of these dynamics, with Bitcoin leading the charge.
Potential Risks and Counterarguments
While the case for a Bitcoin rally is strong, several caveats remain. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled caution on rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation above the 2% target merits restraint. Prediction markets still assign only a 60% chance of a rate cut by June and less than a quarter chance by May, tempering immediate expectations.
Moreover, geopolitical shocks, regulatory clampdowns on crypto exchanges, or a pivot away from fiscal stimulus could stall any nascent uptrend. Historically, mid‑cycle policy tightening or unexpected hawkish surprises have triggered crypto sell‑offs as quickly as liquidity injections have spurred rallies.
Future Outlook and Investment Implications
Looking ahead, market participants should monitor three key indicators: the scale of Treasury off‑the‑run buybacks, Fed communications on rate policy, and on‑chain signals of Bitcoin accumulation. Bank of America forecasts four rate cuts in 2025—May, July, September, and December—potentially reinforcing the stimulative backdrop for risk assets. CME FedWatch data suggests rising odds of a June cut, which could coincide with a seasonal inflow into cryptos.
For investors seeking practical entry points, dollar‑cost averaging into BTC between $85,000 and $95,000 may offer a favorable risk‑reward if buybacks and rate cuts materialize. Risk management remains paramount: setting stop‑loss orders and diversifying across assets can help mitigate downside in the event that macro policies shift unexpectedly.
The convergence of U.S. Treasury buybacks, dovish Fed prospects, and weakening dollar conditions creates a potent environment for Bitcoin to reclaim—and possibly surpass—the $100,000 threshold. Visionaries like Arthur Hayes and Robert Kiyosaki warn that our window to accumulate BTC at present levels may be closing fast. While risks persist, historical liquidity cycles have repeatedly handed tremendous gains to risk asset investors. As Treasury operations continue and policymakers weigh their next moves, market observers and participants should prepare for the possibility that Bitcoin’s next major breakout lies just ahead.
