Main Points：
- Gold price reached a record $3,300 per ounce on April 16, 2025, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and safe‑haven demand.
- Bitcoin experienced a sharp drawdown to $75,000, then rebounded to $85,000, underscoring its growing resilience in volatile markets.
- The proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit is nearing its long‑term average—a historic threshold that often delineates bull and bear markets.
- Gold fund net inflows hit a record $80 billion year‑to‑date, more than double the previous annual high, as investors flock to traditional stores of value.
- Analysts predict gold’s momentum may presage a delayed Bitcoin surge, as global liquidity peaks and institutional demand for BTC accelerates.
1. Macroeconomic Backdrop: Uncertainty Breeds Safe‑Haven Demand
The ongoing restructuring of global trade relationships has intensified volatility across cornerstone markets like U.S. Treasuries and equities. Earnings season jitters, discussions of renewed tariffs, and volatile interest‑rate expectations have driven the MOVE Index—a gauge of bond market stress—to multi‑year highs, while the VIX volatility index in equities has spiked to levels reminiscent of past crises. This surge in cross‑asset turbulence has prompted a classic “flight to safety,” channeling capital into hard assets viewed as neutral global reserves. Gold and Bitcoin, despite their differences in nature, have both benefited from this capital reallocation, emerging as pivotal barometers of investor risk appetite in an unsettled macro landscape.
U.S. Treasury yields initially dipped—reflecting short‑lived success in lowering benchmark rates—before snapping back to around 4.5%, erasing earlier gains and stoking further market angst. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has weakened under the weight of dovish Federal Reserve rate‑cut pricing and trade‑war rhetoric, amplifying the appeal of dollar‑denominated hard assets such as gold. As mainstream markets oscillate, investors are re‑examining portfolio allocations, with a growing percentage earmarked for gold’s centuries‑old role as a hedge against currency debasement and for Bitcoin’s emerging profile as “digital gold.”
2. Gold’s Historic Breakout
On April 16, 2025, gold prices surged to a new all‑time high of $3,300 per ounce on COMEX, breaking past psychological barriers and eclipsing prior peaks set in 2020. This rally was underpinned by record inflows into gold‑backed funds—over $80 billion year‑to‑date—surpassing the full‑year total of 2020 by twofold, a testament to escalating investor confidence in bullion’s safe‑haven status during market dislocations.
A confluence of factors fueled this surge: a weakening U.S. dollar, heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, and renewed tariff concerns as trade negotiations remain in flux. Central banks have also stepped up their gold purchases, diversifying foreign reserves away from sovereign debt and underscoring long‑term trust in gold as a neutral reserve asset. Technical indicators, such as elevated MACD readings, suggest gold remains in overbought territory, prompting some analysts to caution on near‑term pullbacks even as many maintain their long‑term bullish outlook .
3. Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Storm
Bitcoin followed risk assets downward, briefly dipping to $75,000 during the initial wave of volatility, marking its largest drawdown of the current 2023–25 cycle at roughly –33% from the all‑time high. However, this contraction was well within historical norms for bull‑market corrections; previous drawdowns during macro shocks often exceeded 50%, highlighting Bitcoin’s evolving maturity and investor conviction.
By mid‑week, Bitcoin had rallied back to $85,000, effectively neutralizing the short‑term sell‑off and demonstrating the depth of underlying demand. On‑chain metrics corroborate this resilience: active address counts and transaction volumes held firm, while institutional flows—evidenced by massive spot purchases on major exchanges—continued unabated. This oscillation illustrates Bitcoin’s dual nature: sensitive to broad liquidity swings yet buoyed by steadfast long‑term holders and growing corporate adoption.
4. On‑Chain Metrics Signal Crucial Thresholds
According to Glassnode, unrealized losses across the Bitcoin network peaked at $410 billion during the drawdown, an all‑time high in absolute terms. Yet, at an individual level, the majority of investors endured losses of just –23.6%, significantly lower than the –61.8% and –78.6% seen in 2021 and 2022 bear markets, respectively.
Crucially, 75% of circulating Bitcoin remains in profit, with supply in profit now towing the long‑term average line—historically a watershed between bull regimes (sustained above) and bear phases (sustained below). This equilibrium point serves as a bellwether: a confirmed rebound off the mean would signal renewed bull‑market momentum, while a breach below could herald deeper profit‑taking. As of April 17, supply in profit has flirted with this median threshold, underscoring Bitcoin’s current position at a market inflection.
5. Liquidity Dynamics: The Gold‑Bitcoin Correlation
Global liquidity reached unprecedented levels in April 2025, as central banks and fiscal authorities expanded balance sheets to counteract growth headwinds. While gold has already capitalized—surpassing $3,200 earlier in the month—Bitcoin lags by roughly 30% against its all‑time high, setting up a potential 100–150‑day lagged rally in BTC relative to bullion patterns, according to leading analysts.
Institutional demand further amplifies this thesis. Corporations and asset managers acquired over 95,400 BTC in Q1 2025, reflecting a growing appetite for digital scarcity amid historic liquidity expansion. Should gold maintain its upward trajectory, Bitcoin’s correlation to macro liquidity suggests a pronounced tailwind, potentially propelling BTC toward fresh record highs as broader risk‑on sentiment revives.
6. Forecast and Investment Implications
With gold’s ascent revealing robust safe‑haven flows and Bitcoin’s on‑chain metrics signaling a pivotal decision point, investors face a nuanced landscape. Near‑term, gold may encounter technical resistance and profit‑taking, yet its role as a currency hedge remains unassailable in an uncertain policy environment. Conversely, Bitcoin appears poised for a delayed catch‑up, driven by institutional adoption and a maturing derivatives ecosystem that can absorb large inflows without severe slippage.
Risk‑adjusted strategies might therefore pivot to a balanced allocation between these hard assets: gold to navigate immediate volatility, and Bitcoin to capitalize on anticipated liquidity‑driven rallies. Tactical traders could exploit Bitcoin’s support at $80,000—near its 21‑day moving average—with stop‑loss orders below $75,000, while strategic holders may consider dollar‑cost averaging into both assets to mitigate entry‑point risk.
The simultaneous strength of gold and Bitcoin amid heightened market turbulence underscores a paradigm shift in safe‑haven investing. Gold’s historic $3,300 peak and record fund inflows reflect enduring trust in traditional stores of value, while Bitcoin’s resilience and proximity to critical supply‑in‑profit thresholds signal a maturing digital reserve asset. As global liquidity peaks and trade uncertainties persist, these twin hard assets are likely to remain central to diversified portfolios seeking both security and asymmetric upside. Investors who recognize the interplay between gold’s immediate momentum and Bitcoin’s delayed yet powerful rallies may find fertile ground for uncorrelated returns in this evolving market cycle.
