Main Points:
- Anticipated Price Movements: The upcoming FOMC announcement could lead to 3–5% price changes in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), according to Volmex’s implied volatility indices.
- Implied Volatility Levels: As of 19:30 UTC on March 19, Bitcoin’s 1-day implied volatility (BVIV) was at an annualized rate of 63.32%, translating to a roughly 3.31% expected daily change. Ethereum and Solana exhibited daily price fluctuations of about 5.25% and 5.73%, respectively.
- FRB Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate while signaling a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening, suggesting a stable rate environment.
- Moderate Impact Expected: While the FOMC event is highly anticipated, the observed volatility figures indicate that a sudden, explosive surge in price fluctuations is unlikely.
1. Overview of the FOMC Impact
On March 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its latest decisions on interest rates, growth and inflation forecasts, and rate outlook. Volmex’s data shows that these announcements could trigger a 3–5% fluctuation in the prices of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This is derived from their respective 1-day implied volatility indices, which are calculated based on an annualized volatility measure adjusted for daily trading days.
2. Detailed Volatility Data
At 19:30 UTC on March 19, the Bitcoin 1-day implied volatility index (BVIV) stood at an annualized 63.32%. This level corresponds to an expected daily price change of approximately 3.31%. Similar calculations for Ethereum and Solana suggest expected daily price movements of around 5.25% and 5.73%, respectively. Although these figures might seem significant, they are within the typical range of fluctuations seen in the cryptocurrency market.
3. Federal Reserve’s Policy Signal
In its recent meeting, the Federal Reserve (FRB) opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, the FRB indicated that it plans to slow down the pace of its quantitative tightening program over the long term. This decision provides a relatively stable monetary environment, implying that while the FOMC announcement is important, it is unlikely to cause an abrupt surge in volatility beyond the normal range.
4. Implications for Traders and Investors
For traders and investors, the 3–5% expected price movement presents both opportunities and risks. The volatility data suggests that while short-term fluctuations can be notable, they do not indicate an unprecedented level of instability. As a result, market participants can approach the FOMC announcement with caution, knowing that the anticipated changes are significant but not extreme by crypto market standards.
5. Conclusion
In summary, the recent FOMC announcement is expected to lead to a 3–5% fluctuation in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as indicated by Volmex’s implied volatility indices. With the Federal Reserve holding the policy rate steady and signaling a slowdown in quantitative tightening, the overall impact on crypto prices should remain within a manageable range. Investors and traders should remain vigilant but can take comfort in the fact that these movements are in line with typical market volatility.
