BTC’s Bold Ascent: Why Standard Chartered Maintains a $200,000 Target for Late-2025

Main Points：

• $200,000 Price Target: Standard Chartered’s digital assets team under Jeffery Kendrick reaffirms a $200K BTC forecast for late-2025, with an intermediate milestone of $135K by Sept. 30, 2025.
• ETF Inflows & Corporate Demand: Q2 2025 saw $12.4 billion flowing into spot BTC ETFs, alongside purchases of roughly 245,000 BTC by corporations—stronger than Q1 (see Figure 1).
• Macro Asset Rotation: Bitcoin’s second-quarter $12.4 billion ETF inflows surpassed simultaneous gold ETF flows amid Middle East tensions, underscoring BTC’s growing macro appeal.
• New Cycle Dynamics: Unlike prior halvings, ETF approvals and corporate buying are reshaping supply–demand, muting traditional post-halving sell-off pressure.
• Policy Catalysts: Anticipated U.S. regulatory shifts—early Fed chair nomination news and the bipartisan GENIUS Act—could further unlock institutional capital.
• Competing Forecasts: Bitwise aligns on $200K, while acknowledging reduced confidence in ETH and SOL outlooks given YTD underperformance.
• Practical Takeaways: Investors hunting new digital-asset opportunities should monitor institutional flow data, policy developments, and emerging altcoins in payment rails and DeFi.

Market Foundations for the $200K Bull Case

Spot BTC ETFs have become a dominant driver of inflows in 2025. In Q2 alone, investors plowed $12.4 billion into these products—up from $8.5 billion in Q1—while corporations acquired a combined 245,000 BTC. This dual demand pulse outstripped historical norms (Figure 1). <figure> <figcaption><strong>Figure 1. Quarterly Spot BTC ETF Inflows & Corporate Purchases</strong></figcaption> *(Data source: Standard Chartered, June 2025 analysis; projections by author)* </figure>

These flows coincide with a shifting allocation landscape. According to Glassnode and recent exchange-traded statistics, Bitcoin’s share of “macro asset” inflows has overtaken gold ETF demand during geopolitical stress in June 2025, reflecting growing acceptance of BTC as a hedge and store of value.

Intermediate Milestone: $135K by Sept. 30, 2025

Standard Chartered’s team, led by Jeffery Kendrick, argues that cumulative buying—spot ETFs plus corporate coffers—will propel BTC to $135,000 by September 30, 2025. Such a target relies on quarterly inflow growth of roughly 10–15% and assumes continued corporate appetite beyond Q2’s 245K BTC haul.

Beyond Halving: A New Price Cycle Paradigm

Traditional halvings historically usher in multi-year bull cycles—but Kendrick contends that “ETF authorization and enterprise purchasing have disrupted past patterns.” Long-term holders now face less post-halving sell-pressure, as institutional inflows offer a deeper liquidity buffer.

Chainalysis data highlights that wallets holding 1 BTC+ have steadily accumulated since early 2025, signaling confidence. Meanwhile, on-chain trading volumes have remained subdued, suggesting supply is being hoarded rather than rotated back to market—a bullish omen.

Policy & Regulatory Tailwinds

Several U.S. regulatory developments could serve as catalysts:

1. Fed Chair Nominee Timing: Early announcement under a potential Trump administration may signal a crypto-friendly monetary stance.
2. GENIUS Act Passage: Bipartisan legislation aiming to establish a clear framework for digital assets could draw new institutional capital.

Both factors are likely to combine and accelerate inflows, according to Kendrick’s report obtained by The Block.

Broader Crypto Landscape: Ethereum & Beyond

Competing forecasts offer nuance: on June 30, Bitwise reaffirmed a $200K BTC target but downgraded confidence in Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) price forecasts due to their year-to-date negative performance. However, they noted growing demand for stablecoins in DeFi lending and potential ETF approvals for ETH could spur a recovery.

Industry watchers should also track:

• Payment Rail Integrations: Firms like PayPal and Visa experimenting with on-chain settlement.
• Layer-2 Innovations: Rollups on Ethereum promising cheaper transactions.
• Cross-Chain Bridges: Enhancing liquidity across networks.

Visualizing the $200K Trajectory

<figure> <figcaption><strong>Figure 2. BTC Price Forecast, July–Dec 2025</strong></figcaption> *(Starting point: \$60K on July 3, 2025; intermediate \$135K on Sept. 30; end-year \$200K)* </figure>

Strategic Implications for Investors

1. Monitor Institutional Flows: Weekly ETF inflow reports on platforms like CoinShares and Bloomberg can signal trend shifts.
2. Assess Corporate Disclosures: Quarterly earnings and balance-sheet filings may reveal direct BTC purchases.
3. Stay Alert to Policy News: Senate committee calendars and Fed announcements will hint at regulatory headwinds or tailwinds.
4. Explore Altcoin Use Cases: Beyond BTC, projects in on-chain payments (e.g., XRP’s ODL), layer-2 and stablecoin yield aggregators can offer diversified upside.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s bold $200,000 BTC target for late-2025, with an interim $135,000 milestone, rests on an unprecedented confluence of robust spot ETF inflows, accelerating corporate demand, and potential regulatory breakthroughs. As traditional halvings yield to modern institutional dynamics, investors seeking the next revenue stream or practical blockchain applications should align strategies with real-time flow data, policy trajectories, and emerging layer-2 opportunities. While risks remain—geopolitical shocks, central bank policy shifts, or tech setbacks—the macro and on-chain indicators point to a sustained bull narrative.