Main Points:
- Both short-term and long-term holders have increased their Bitcoin supply since June 22, 2025.
- Long-term holders added ~13,000 BTC, reaching a record 14,713,345 BTC.
- Short-term holders added over 60,000 BTC, now holding more than 2.3 million BTC.
- Institutional demand and crypto fund inflows are at multi-year highs, reflecting broad-based optimism.
- ETF demand continues to outpace supply, with major players like BlackRock accumulating large volumes.
- Macro tailwinds—anticipated Fed rate cuts and a tech-led rally—are boosting risk assets including Bitcoin.
- Future catalysts: upcoming U.S. data releases (CPI on July 15; Retail Sales on July 17) and “Crypto Week” in the House (July 14–20).
1. Unprecedented Sync: Long and Short Holders Both Buying
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range just below its all-time high of $112,000 since early July, but on-chain data from Glassnode reveals a rare phenomenon: both long-term and short-term holder cohorts are adding to their positions simultaneously. Historically, these two groups behave inversely—long-term holders often sell into strength, while short-term holders chase momentum during rallies. Since June 22, 2025:
- Long-Term Holders (coins held ≥155 days) increased supply by ~13,000 BTC, bringing their total to 14,713,345 BTC, the highest on record.
- Short-Term Holders (<155 days) added over 60,000 BTC and now collectively hold over 2.3 million BTC.
This convergence suggests a unified expectation of higher prices across both patient and opportunistic market participants.
See the figure below illustrating the supply changes for both cohorts between June 22 and July 10, 2025.
<figure> <!– Chart generated above –> <figcaption>Figure: Bitcoin supply held by long-term vs. short-term holders on June 22 (yellow) and July 10 (orange), 2025.</figcaption> </figure>
2. What’s Driving This Broad-Based Accumulation?
2.1 Institutional Demand and Crypto Fund Flows
Crypto fund assets hit a record $167 billion in May, driven by $7.05 billion of net inflows—the highest since December 2024. Traditional asset managers are increasingly viewing Bitcoin not just as speculative but as a hedge and portfolio diversifier. This trend is underscored by Reuters noting that institutional demand remains “persistent”—a core reason Bitcoin briefly touched $112,000 on July 9, 2025.
2.2 ETF Demand Outpacing Supply
BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has rapidly accumulated over 700,000 BTC, and other issuers are competing aggressively for shares. As ETF inflows continue, on-chain movements of large Bitcoin transfers to custodial addresses have picked up, suggesting major inflows are being locked away, reducing available supply and putting upward pressure on price.
2.3 Macro Tailwinds: Rate-Cut Hopes and Tech Rally
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting hinted at interest-rate cuts later in 2025, bolstering risk assets. At the same time, Nvidia’s market capitalization briefly topped $4 trillion, igniting a tech-driven rally that spilled over into cryptocurrencies. High correlations with the Nasdaq100 (0.91) and SOX (0.87) indices reflect this relationship.
3. Broader Market Trends and Altcoin Rotation
While Bitcoin leads, mid-2025 has seen capital rotating into Ethereum and select high-potential altcoins. The total crypto market cap has surged back above $3 trillion, with Ethereum up over 12% year-to-date and several DeFi tokens outperforming in recent weeks. Rising on-chain activity in decentralized exchanges and smart-contract platforms suggests growing practical use cases beyond store-of-value.
4. Upcoming Catalysts
- “Crypto Week” in the U.S. House (July 14–20): Legislative hearings may clarify regulatory pathways, impacting investor confidence.
- U.S. CPI (July 15) & Retail Sales (July 17): These data will influence Fed policy outlook and market risk appetite.
- Options and Derivatives Activity: Rising call-open interest at the $120,000 strike and low put-call ratios signal bullish sentiment, but high leverage could amplify volatility.
5. What This Means for Investors
- Short-Term Traders: The synchronized buying behavior may continue to fuel momentum trades, but watch for profit-taking if price deviates sharply from realized levels.
- Long-Term Investors: Record accumulation by long-term holders underscores confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as “digital gold.”
- Portfolio Allocators: With veteran advisors arguing that avoiding crypto is now the riskier choice, a small allocation (e.g., 5–10%) could enhance risk-adjusted returns.
Conclusion
The simultaneous accumulation by both long-term and short-term holders represents a pivotal moment for the Bitcoin market. Supported by robust institutional inflows, ETF demand outpacing supply, and favorable macro signals, Bitcoin is well-positioned to challenge and potentially exceed its current all-time high of $112,000. However, investors should remain vigilant around key economic releases and regulatory developments, which could introduce volatility even amid broadly bullish fundamentals.
