Main Points :
- Bitcoin’s six‑month volatility has halved—from around 60 % to just 30 %—a historically low level.
- Its volatility gap versus gold has narrowed to the smallest on record, trading at only twice gold’s volatility.
- On a risk‑adjusted basis, Bitcoin appears undervalued by approximately 13 %, implying a fair value around $126,000.
- Corporate treasury accumulation—now over 6 % of Bitcoin’s total supply—has notably reduced volatility, similar to central bank QE in bonds.
- Inclusion of Bitcoin‑holding companies into major equity indices has spurred passive inflows and enhanced institutional appeal.
Volatility Plummets to Record Lows
JPMorgan’s latest research reveals that Bitcoin’s six‑month rolling volatility has dropped sharply from roughly 60 % at the beginning of 2025 down to an unprecedented low of about 30 %. This marks the narrowest volatility gap ever seen between Bitcoin and gold. As volatility shrinks, Bitcoin begins to resemble traditional stores of value more closely, blurring the risk differential that previously deterred institutional investors.
Bitcoin Now Just Twice as Volatile as Gold
The volatility ratio—Bitcoin’s volatility divided by gold’s—now sits at about 2.0, the lowest level on record. This convergence significantly improves Bitcoin’s profile for institutional risk allocation, assuming that allocations tend to mirror medium‑risk asset classes like gold.
Risk-Adjusted Valuation—Target: $126,000
On a volatility‑adjusted basis, JPMorgan calculates that Bitcoin would need to rise around 13 % to match the level of private investment in gold—estimated at $5 trillion—translating to an implied fair value of roughly $126,000 per coin. This suggests that Bitcoin is currently undervalued by approximately $16,000 relative to its risk‑adjusted “digital gold” benchmark.
Corporate Treasuries: A Stabilizing Force
A key driver behind reduced volatility is the increased holdings by corporate treasuries, now exceeding 6 % of Bitcoin’s total supply. Mirroring how central bank quantitative easing calms bond markets, this accumulation removes coins from circulation, dampening speculative trading and market swings.
Passive Inflows via Index Inclusion
Further bolstering institutional interest, companies holding significant Bitcoin—such as Metaplanet and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)—are being included in major equity indices like FTSE Russell and Nasdaq benchmarks. This inclusion attracts passive investment flows, enhancing legitimacy and deepening the capitalization of Bitcoin through traditional channels.
Summary of the USD-Denominated Analysis
| Factor | Impact on Bitcoin’s Valuation |
|---|---|
| Volatility decline | Enhances institutional appeal |
| Volatility ratio narrowing | Risk-adjusted comparison to gold improves |
| Market cap adjust (~13 %) | Drives theoretical fair price to ~$126,000 |
| Corporate treasury buying | Reduces volatility, stabilizes supply |
| Index inclusion | Brings passive capital and broader legitimacy |
Final Thoughts
JPMorgan’s report signals a pivotal shift: Bitcoin is not just a speculative token, but emerging as a credible, lower-volatility asset that can vie with gold in institutional portfolios. With volatility at historic lows, growing corporate treasury accumulation, and the momentum of index inclusion, the thesis for Bitcoin as “digital gold” gains compelling substance. For professionals eager to discover the next revenue streams in blockchain, opportunities lie not merely in new cryptos, but in those aligning with stability, institutional trust, and pragmatic use cases.
Let me know if you’d like illustrative diagrams or graphs further tailored, or datasets broken down for specific crypto-asset comparisons or treasury-holding trends.
