Main Points:
- Bitcoin’s 4-year halving rhythm: three years of growth followed by one year of consolidation
- CryptoQuant’s Carmelo Alemán forecasts a 120% gain to ~$205 k by year-end 2025
- Willy Woo’s risk model signals entry into the late bull-market phase, with liquidity reversal as the next bear-market trigger
- Swissblock identifies tight price compression between $100 k–$110 k, hinting at an imminent breakout
- Record spot Bitcoin ETF inflows underscore robust institutional demand, exceeding $400 m in a single day
- Michael Saylor asserts no more bear markets and envisions Bitcoin at $1 million supported by structural supply–demand shifts
Bitcoin’s 3 + 1 Cycle: Aligning Growth with Halvings
Since its inception in 2011, Bitcoin has followed a discernible four-year rhythm: three years of net price appreciation and one year of consolidation. This pattern dovetails with the protocol-enforced halving events—when miner rewards are cut in half—occurring approximately every four years. CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán’s “Yearly Percentage Trend” leverages this cycle to filter out daily volatility and focus on structural market phases. His analysis shows that, after two successive bullish years (2019–2020, 2021–2022) and a 2023 consolidation, 2025 represents the third growth year of the current cycle.
Alemán’s data-driven approach starts from a base price of $93,226 at the beginning of 2025. If Bitcoin maintains its historical average growth of ~120% in the third year, the asset could reach $205,097—potentially marking the cycle’s peak—by year-end 2025. These projections align with other major forecasts from institutional strategists who have also signaled $200 k–$220 k targets for Bitcoin.
Institutional Inflows: The Rise of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Parallel to on-chain cyclicality, traditional capital markets have embraced Bitcoin via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $412.2 million in net inflows on June 16, extending a six-day streak and pushing cumulative inflows above $46 billion. This robust demand reflects institutional investors’ conviction in Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated June 17 flows with $639 million in daily net inflows, scooping over 6,000 BTC from the open market—nearly five times the net inflows of its closest competitor. These inflows are absorbed by a market whose daily miner supply is ~450 BTC, suggesting that institutional buying alone is a potent upward force on price.
Late-Stage Bull Market: Willy Woo’s Liquidity Risk Model
While inflows and cycle analysis suggest substantial upside, seasoned investors heed the warning signs of late-stage bull markets. Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo’s risk model—focused on declining Bitcoin liquidity—signals that Bitcoin has entered the late phase of its bull market.
Woo highlights that diminishing exchange reserves and concentration of BTC in long-term hands often precede peak bullish sentiment. However, when global liquidity conditions shift—such as Fed rate pivots or credit tightening—the same metrics can forecast the onset of a bear market. Though Woo expects further gains in the near term, he cautions that liquidity reversals will eventually trigger profit-taking and drawdowns.
Compression and Breakout: Swissblock’s Trading-Range Analysis
Complementing cycle and liquidity models, Swissblock’s technical analysis points to a tightening price band between $100 k and $110 k. Over the past weeks, Bitcoin’s higher lows and lower highs have formed a classic compression pattern—a coiling that typically resolves in a sharp breakout or breakdown.
Swissblock notes that repeated failures to breach $110 k could sap short-term buying momentum, making the first decisive move above or below this range critical. Given the prevailing bullish structural backdrop, many analysts interpret such compression as a launchpad for the next leg up toward cycle highs.
Michael Saylor’s All-Or-Nothing Thesis: A $1 Million Bitcoin
Adding to the long-term bullish narrative, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reaffirmed on Bloomberg TV that “the bear market will never return” and that Bitcoin “will not go to zero but will instead reach $1 million.” He cites U.S. government support—from the White House to SEC appointees—and the crushing of miner daily supply (~$50 million worth) by ETF and corporate purchases as fundamental drivers.
Saylor argues that with only ~450 BTC mined daily and strategic entities like MicroStrategy holding over 500,000 BTC, the asset’s supply constraints combined with relentless demand create a structural floor far above historical levels. Even in hypothetical pullbacks (e.g., a 20% correction from higher price anchors), the thesis posits that new investors will step in, viewing dips as finite and rare opportunities.
Navigating Risk: Balancing Upside with Prudence
Despite converging bullish signals, risk management remains paramount. Key considerations include:
- Macro Shifts: A sudden tightening of global liquidity or adverse fiscal policies could trigger swift corrections, as per Woo’s model.
- Technical Breakdowns: Failure to sustain above $100 k could expose Bitcoin to deeper consolidations.
- Regulatory Dynamics: Unexpected policy changes—such as restrictions on ETFs or on-chain monitoring—can introduce volatility.
Institutional investors often employ scaling strategies—averaging into positions across technical barriers—while seasoned traders may hedge with derivatives to protect gains.
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture: a cyclical third-year growth phase, bolstered by structural ETF inflows, tightening price compression, and historic supply constraints. CryptoQuant’s Carmelo Alemán projects a potential 120% rally to $205 k, while Willy Woo’s risk model reminds investors of late-stage vulnerability pending liquidity reversals. Swissblock’s range analysis suggests an imminent breakout, and Michael Saylor extends the long-term horizon to $1 million backed by fundamental support.
For investors seeking new asset opportunities, Bitcoin’s current milieu offers a compelling blend of cyclicality, institutional adoption, and technical setups—tempered by prudent risk frameworks to navigate the eventual inflection points.
