Main Points :
- BlackRock confirms: institutional Bitcoin investors do not assume mass adoption as a global payment network.
- Bitcoin’s main value driver today remains “digital gold”—a long-term store of value.
- Scaling technologies like Lightning and L2 rollups face sustainability concerns.
- Stablecoins are expanding much faster than expected, rapidly capturing global payment use-cases.
- ARK Invest reduced its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast because stablecoins are displacing certain Bitcoin roles.
- Stablecoins may dominate cross-border payments, remittances, enterprise settlement, and potentially all fiat currency rails.
- Emerging markets and multinational institutions are adopting stablecoins at accelerating speed.
Introduction
Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system is undergoing a gradual but fundamental transformation. Even as its price climbs, major institutional players—including BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager—are clarifying that they are not investing in Bitcoin with the assumption that it will become a global payments network. Instead, they are positioning Bitcoin primarily as a store of value, comparable to gold but with digital advantages.
At the same time, stablecoins—particularly US dollar–linked tokens—are expanding at a pace that exceeds expectations, rapidly integrating into remittances, cross-border trade, and Web3 settlement layers. This divergence in utility between Bitcoin and stablecoins is reshaping market forecasts, investor strategies, and the broader future of blockchain adoption.
This article summarizes the viewpoints from BlackRock, ARK Invest, and stablecoin leaders, while integrating broader market data and recent developments relevant for readers exploring new crypto assets, yield opportunities, and practical blockchain applications.
Bitcoin as “Digital Gold”—Not a Payments Network
BlackRock’s Perspective
Robbie Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, emphasizes that institutional clients are not valuing Bitcoin based on its potential as a global payment rail. In a recent interview, he stated clearly:
“We are not assuming that Bitcoin will become a global settlement network. If it eventually happens, it will be an additional upside—but it is not the base case.”
This viewpoint reflects a strategic shift:
- Bitcoin’s core utility = global store of value
- Payments utility = optional upside, not required for investment
Institutional investors are treating Bitcoin similarly to digital gold, prioritizing its scarcity, decentralization, and resistance to debasement.
Why Institutions Avoid the “Payment Network Thesis”
Mitchnick cites several obstacles:
- Scaling Limitations
Bitcoin’s base layer was never designed for high-frequency payments. - Lightning Network Challenges
While Lightning offers near-instant micropayments, it requires liquidity management and node infrastructure that remain complex for mainstream users. - Rollup Sustainability Concerns
Galaxy Research recently warned that many Bitcoin L2 rollup designs may not be economically or technically sustainable long-term.
Because these issues require years of evolution, large investors cannot assume Bitcoin will replace global payment networks within actionable investment timeframes.
What Would Need to Change for Bitcoin to Become a Payment Rail?
Mitchnick outlines multiple prerequisites:
- Massive scaling improvements
- Lightning or successor protocols achieving mainstream reliability
- Sustainable Bitcoin L2 ecosystems
- Lower transaction costs without compromising decentralization
- Clear regulatory clarity for global merchants
These dependencies make Bitcoin’s payment future a long-shot scenario, not a near-term trajectory.
Stablecoins: The Unexpected Breakout Winner
“Very Clear Product-Market Fit”
Mitchnick contrasts Bitcoin’s speculative payment prospects with the real-world success of stablecoins, describing them as:
“Extremely successful in payments… with clear product-market fit.”
Stablecoins are already:
- Faster
- Cheaper
- Globally interoperable
- Familiar (denominated in fiat currency)
- Easy to integrate into applications
They power:
- Crypto trading
- DeFi collateral
- On-chain savings and yield
- Remittances
- Enterprise cross-border settlement
- Treasury operations for multinational corporations
Expanding Far Beyond Crypto
Mitchnick predicts major growth in:
- Migrant remittances
- Business-to-business (B2B) payments
- Multinational enterprise treasury settlement
- Capital market settlement (bonds, equities, repos)
- Merchant settlement rails
This aligns with data from multiple sources showing:
- USDC and USDT transaction counts already exceed that of Visa in several months.
- Stablecoin monthly volumes exceed $1 trillion in some periods.
- Stablecoin adoption is highest in emerging markets (Philippines, Nigeria, Turkey, LATAM).
ARK Invest Lowers Its 2030 BTC Forecast Because of Stablecoins
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, recently stated that stablecoins are expanding faster than anticipated, capturing use cases originally expected to be filled by Bitcoin. As a result:
- Original 2030 target: $1.5 million per BTC
- Adjusted estimate: Reduced by approx $300,000
Wood explains:
“Stablecoins are taking over some roles we expected Bitcoin to fill, especially in emerging markets.”
Emerging markets are where:
- Currency devaluation is rapid
- Dollar demand is high
- Residents seek usable, fast, USD-denominated digital money
In these environments, stablecoins—not Bitcoin—are increasingly becoming the default digital currency.
“By 2030, All Currencies Could Become Stablecoins”
Tether co-founder Reeve Collins believes the transition toward on-chain financial rails is inevitable:
“Every currency will become a stablecoin by 2030.”
This prediction aligns with:
- Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization trends
- Institutional adoption of blockchain rails
- Stablecoin integration into treasury systems
- Central bank digital currency (CBDC) research efforts
The idea is not that fiat disappears—but that the rails transporting fiat will be entirely blockchain-based.
Implications for Investors Seeking New Crypto Opportunities
1. Bitcoin = Long-Term Store of Value
The institutional narrative is converging:
Bitcoin’s value thesis is macro-driven, not utility-driven.
2. Stablecoins = Infrastructure Investing Opportunity
Opportunities exist in:
- Stablecoin issuers
- L2 networks optimized for payments
- FX settlement networks
- Remittance protocols
- RWA platforms for tokenized dollars
3. L2 Competition Will Intensify
Because Bitcoin’s base layer cannot scale sufficiently, alternative L1 and L2 blockchains will dominate payments, including:
- Stellar
- Solana
- Avalanche
- Tron (dominant for USDT in Asia)
- Ethereum L2 rollups
4. Emerging Markets Will Lead Adoption
Countries experiencing inflation or remittance dependency will remain the core drivers.
5. Institutional Remittances Are a Massive Untapped Sector
Corporations performing cross-border settlements (e.g., $ millions per month) are gradually shifting to stablecoin rails.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s path to mainstream adoption is diverging into two separate realities:
- As Digital Gold (near-certain):
Institutions overwhelmingly treat Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, uncorrelated with payment utility. - As a Global Payment Network (uncertain):
Scaling challenges and infrastructure limitations mean payments are an optional upside—not a baseline assumption.
Meanwhile, stablecoins are emerging as the true breakout technology in global payments, offering speed, efficiency, and usability that Bitcoin cannot currently match.
For investors seeking new opportunities in blockchain, the future lies not in debating Bitcoin’s theoretical payment potential—but in understanding the practical rails already transforming global money movement today.
