Main Points：
- Multiple bullish megaphone (broadening wedge) patterns suggest potential breakout to $144K–$260K this cycle.
- Confirmation lies in price breaking above ~$124.9K–$125K resistance, aligning with all-time highs.
- Oversold signals from short-term holders (STH) MVRV indicator hint at a local bottom.
- Historical precedent: similar conditions in April led to a 51% rebound.
- External market context supports possible parabolic upward move.
1. Understanding the Megaphone Pattern in Bitcoin Charts
The megaphone or broadening wedge pattern features prices making progressively higher highs and lower lows, forming diverging trendlines—visually resembling an expanding triangle. In Bitcoin’s case, analysts have identified two such bullish setups:
- A smaller megaphone forming since July, with its base at approximately $108K, recently bounced upward, suggesting that this pattern remains valid.
- A larger, longer-term megaphone spanning the past ~280 days, with the upper trendline resting near $125K.
Technical theory suggests that a break above the upper boundary often triggers parabolic price movement, the very type anticipated here.
2. Targets: From $144K to $260K
If Bitcoin clears the roughly $124.9K–$125K resistance, several potential targets emerge:
- The smaller megaphone points to a target of $144.2K, representing about a 27% upside.
- The larger pattern projects a rise to roughly $206.8K, amounting to an 82% increase.
- Influencer insights highlight the weekly megaphone breakout targeting a lofty $260K.
- Across recent commentary, analysts reinforce the $144K–$260K zone as plausible within the current cycle.
3. Oversold Metrics from Short-Term Holders Signal Opportunity
The recent ~12% drop from BTC’s ATH pushed wallets holding bitcoin less than 155 days into panic sell territory, which pushed the STH MVRV ratio to the Bollinger Bands’ lower bound—marking oversold conditions.
Analyst Frank Fetter noted a similar scenario back in April – despite tapping oversold levels around $74K, Bitcoin rebounded by ~51% thereafter. This recurring dynamic suggests current conditions may be setting the stage for another upward move.
4. Trading Strategies and Confirmation
To capitalize on this setup:
- Watch for a clear break and close above ~$125K with strong volume—a hallmark of a legitimate breakout.
- Manage risk with stop-losses placed just below the breakout threshold, guarding against false breakouts.
- Monitor STH MVRV behavior—if oversold levels are met and reversal signals follow, it may provide a favorable entry point.
5. Recent Developments and Broader Trends
Further confirmation came mid-summer: Bitcoin validated a multi-year megaphone breakout, consolidating above $117K after retesting the upper trendline. Rising open interest and institutional inflows suggest a possible path to $200K in the medium term.
Institutional demand and macro tailwinds also strengthen long-term bull narratives. Bitwise, for one, projects BTC could hit $1.3M by 2035, driven by limited supply and growing corporate holdings. While significantly long-term, such sentiment reinforces confidence in sustained upside potential.
Summary & Outlook
Bitcoin’s technical structure is aligning for a compelling upside move. Two bullish megaphone patterns—on both short and multi-year scales—suggest confirmation above $125K could unlock targets ranging from $144K to $260K. Oversold STH metrics hint at a local bottom, echoing previous rebounds. With breakout confirmation, disciplined entry, and risk management, this setup could represent a potent opportunity for both newcomers and seasoned crypto investors.
