Main Points:
- Bitcoin formed a bullish engulfing daily candlestick, a pattern with a 78% success rate of leading to new local highs since 2021.
- On-chain liquidity has recovered to December 2022 levels, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $48.4 billion in net inflows since January 2024, approaching $50 billion.
- BlackRock’s IBIT dominates with 86% of the recent 12-day inflow streak; Ethereum ETFs have netted $4.2 billion since launch.
- Macro factors—including a weakening dollar and geopolitical uncertainties—are reinforcing crypto’s appeal as an uncorrelated asset.
- Statistical and technical signals suggest Bitcoin could soon revisit and exceed its current all-time high ($112,000).
1. Technical Analysis: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Signals Reversal
On Monday, June 23, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed with a commanding 4.34% daily gain, carving out a classical bullish engulfing candlestick that fully overtook the price range of the prior two bearish days. This formation, where a single day’s candle “engulfs” the bodies of its predecessors, is widely regarded as a reversal marker at the end of a corrective phase.
A comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s daily chart since January 2021 reveals 19 instances of such patterns meeting strict validation rules—each requiring the engulfing candle to encompass at least the two preceding candles, occur at the tail end of a pullback, and be followed by a clear structure break. Of these 19 signals, 15 led to fresh local highs within days to weeks, yielding a historical success rate of approximately 78%.
Moreover, all successful occurrences unfolded within broader bull-market contexts, while the few failures in May 2024 and March 2025 highlight the importance of trend context. During the bear market of early 2022, four such patterns appeared but none produced new highs, underscoring that bullish engulfing formations are far more potent when the underlying market structure is uptrending.
2. Historical Performance and Future Targets
Given Bitcoin’s current position above $105,000 for two consecutive days, the technical setup reinforces a market structure shift favoring continuation. Statistically, if history repeats, Bitcoin is well-positioned to retest and potentially exceed its all-time peak around $112,000, with some analysts even eyeing a breakout toward $120,000 or higher in a sustained uptrend.
The broader implication: bullish technical markers, supported by robust on-chain and flow dynamics, argue for a high-probability scenario of new highs before any meaningful correction back toward psychological support at $100,000.
3. On-Chain Liquidity Recovery: Echoes of December 2022
On-chain liquidity—measuring how easily large orders can be executed without severe price impact—has rebounded to levels unseen since late 2022. At that time, Bitcoin found a cycle bottom at $16,800 in December, then proceeded to double in three months. Swissblock data confirms that present liquidity metrics match those December depths, suggesting that fresh buying power has returned to the market.
Since the November 2022 cycle low, Bitcoin has absorbed over $544 billion in new capital, driving its realized market cap (a proxy for internal network liquidity) to an all-time high of $944 billion. This confluence of technical setup and liquidity recovery hints at a repeat of past bullish continuations, reinforcing the axiom: “when liquidity returns, price follows.”
4. Institutional Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Near $50 Billion
The advent of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 ushered in a new era of institutional participation. Over the past 18 months, these funds have amassed $48.4 billion in net inflows and now command roughly $125 billion in assets under management. Notably:
- A 12-day streak of consecutive daily inflows totaling $3.9 billion, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) capturing 86% ($3.3 B) of that surge on June 26 alone.
- Fidelity’s FBTC saw $115.2 million, while smaller players like ARK/21Shares’ ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB also contributed to the strong inflow trend.
- U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, launched July 2024, have similarly drawn $4.2 billion, further cementing growing institutional appetite beyond Bitcoin.
Below is a visualization of cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since their debut:
5. Macro and Geopolitical Tailwinds
Several external factors have further catalyzed investor interest in Bitcoin:
- Dollar weakness: A softer U.S. dollar has historically correlated with Bitcoin rallies, as uncorrelated assets become attractive hedges.
- Rate-cut speculation: Markets are pricing in the possibility of Federal Reserve easing, reducing opportunity cost for risk assets.
- Geopolitical volatility: Trade tensions and shifting tariff regimes spur demand for decentralized stores of value.
Analysts point out that as traditional markets grapple with uncertainty, Bitcoin’s low correlation profile enhances its appeal as a diversification tool.
6. Outlook and Risks
While the technical, on-chain, and flow narratives align bullishly, potential headwinds remain:
- Liquidity dips: Short-term pullbacks in on-chain liquidity could amplify volatility and test key support.
- Funding rates: Recent declines in perpetual contract funding rates signal waning enthusiasm among leveraged longs.
- Regulatory developments: Macroprudential or securities rulings could introduce fresh uncertainty.
Yet, provided fundamental risk signals stay muted, the probability skew remains in favor of continuation toward fresh highs, with any correction seen as a buying opportunity rather than a regime change.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent bullish engulfing pattern, underpinned by a 78% historical hit rate, has occurred alongside a liquidity recovery to December 2022 levels and record institutional ETF inflows approaching $50 billion. This unique convergence of technical, on-chain, and macro tailwinds sets the stage for potentially new all-time highs, possibly retesting $112,000 and beyond. While short-term risks—liquidity dips, funding rate shifts, and regulatory moves—merit vigilance, the overarching statistical and structural evidence points to a robust bullish continuation.
Investors seeking novel crypto assets or revenue generation should monitor these key indicators as part of a disciplined strategy to capture the next leg of Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market.
