Main Points:
- Soft July CPI in the U.S. boosted rate-cut speculation and triggered a modest Bitcoin rebound.
- Bitcoin in yen traded between ¥17.595M and ¥17.76M (~$118k–$119k), but momentum stalled near $120k resistance.
- Core CPI surprised to the upside, restraining full dovish Fed expectations.
- Key resistance lies near $120k–$123k; a close above $120k is a critical milestone.
- CME Bitcoin futures chart exhibits an unfilled gap—expect caution and potential technical correction.
- Institutional inflows and regulatory tailwinds continue to underpin bullish sentiment.
- A weakening U.S. dollar and growing focus on risk assets create a favorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies.
Soft CPI and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
July CPI rose 2.7% YoY, slightly under expectations, renewing hopes for a Fed rate cut. However, core CPI printed 3.1%, above forecast, complicating the picture—though market-implied odds for a September cut remain elevated (some models suggest up to 98%). This creates a tug-of-war between inflation concerns and easing sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Behavior and Technical Levels
Bitcoin in yen terms opened around ¥17.595 million and peaked near ¥17.76 million (≈ $119k), but encountered stiff resistance around $120k. A confirmed daily close above this level would be a bullish technical signal supporting the next upside leg.
Futures Gaps and Profit-Taking Risk
An unfilled CME futures gap signals potential for technical pullback as markets often fill such voids. Combined with recent gains, this raises caution for short-term traders.
Institutional Flows and Regulatory Tailwinds
Regulatory developments in the U.S.—notably inclusion of crypto in retirement accounts and growing ETF support—are enhancing institutional demand. Correlations between Bitcoin and traditional equities continue to rise, positioning Bitcoin increasingly as a macro asset.
Weak Dollar and Broader Risk Asset Rally
The weaker dollar, driven by dovish Fed outlooks, reinforces risk-on sentiment. A strong rebound in tech equities and increasing investor appetite for alternative assets have boosted crypto, with Ethereum often posting even stronger daily moves than Bitcoin.
Charts and Graphs:
- Chart 1: BTC/JPY (1-min and 3-month daily) showing price behavior from ¥17.595M to ¥17.76M.
- Chart 2: Hash rate & mining difficulty vs. futures funding rate charts, demonstrating network and derivatives metrics.
Summary and Outlook
Bitcoin’s bounce was sparked by soft headline CPI but capped by stronger core inflation and technical resistance near $120k. CME futures gaps pose a correction risk, yet institutional flows and regulatory tailwinds support the bullish narrative. A weak dollar and buoyant equities further reinforce this backdrop. Traders should watch for a close above $120k; success may open the path to $123k–$125k, while failure could precipitate pullbacks.
