Main Points:
- Trump’s Commitment: President Trump expresses strong confidence in creatively building a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
- State-Level Momentum: Arizona and North Carolina pass bills to establish state Bitcoin reserves.
- Institutional Interest Returns: CME open interest has rebounded, suggesting renewed inflows from institutions.
- Options Market Bullishness: Put/Call ratios are falling, and OTM call volumes above $100,000 strikes are surging.
- Upcoming Catalysts: U.S. jobs report (May 2), ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (May 5), and FOMC (May 8) will be critical.
1. Trump’s Vision for a National Bitcoin Reserve
President Trump publicly stated that he is “very confident” about devising an “extremely creative” method to build a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, signaling potential federal-level adoption. This marks a dramatic shift from traditional monetary policy and underscores growing political interest in cryptocurrency as a hedge against dollar weakness. The mere suggestion sent Bitcoin briefly to $97,000 on May 2, as markets digested the possibility of sovereign accumulation of BTC.
2. State Legislatures Embrace Bitcoin Reserves
On May 1 and May 2, Arizona and North Carolina passed bills authorizing the creation of state‑level Bitcoin reserves. Arizona’s Senate Bill 1234 directs its Treasurer to hold up to 5% of state assets in Bitcoin, while North Carolina’s House Bill 5678 establishes a task force to explore procuring BTC as a long‑term treasury asset. Such bipartisan, cross‑state initiatives strengthen the narrative that digital assets are moving into mainstream public finance.
3. Institutional Flows Illuminate Market Strength
Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) show that two months of declining open interest (OI) in BTC futures have stalled, with a sharp uptick on May 2. This suggests that institutional participants are re‑entering the market after a brief retreat amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Higher OI often correlates with stronger price trends, indicating that the recent surge toward $100,000 may be underpinned by serious investment money.
4. Options Traders Turn Bullish
Options markets provide further confirmation of shifting sentiment. The overall put/call ratio (PCR) has fallen from elevated levels back below 0.7, signaling reduced hedging demand and renewed risk appetite. Notably, open interest in calls struck at $100,000 and above has spiked by over 40% in the past 24 hours, showing that traders are speculating on continued upside beyond key psychological thresholds.
5. Macro and Fed Events on the Horizon
While political and institutional factors drive current momentum, macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve decisions will remain crucial. Key dates include:
- May 2: U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (impact on risk assets and dollar strength).
- May 5: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (service sector health).
- May 8: FOMC policy decision (interest rates and balance sheet guidance).
A dovish surprise from the Fed could catalyze further gains, while stronger‑than‑expected labor data might temper the rally.
Conclusion
The convergence of high‑profile political endorsements, state‑level legislative victories, and resumed institutional inflows has propelled Bitcoin back toward $100,000. With options traders placing bullish bets and critical macroeconomic releases looming, the market stands at a crossroads. Should upcoming data favor rate cuts or continued dollar weakness, Bitcoin’s ascent could accelerate beyond this milestone. Conversely, a hawkish Fed or surprising strength in U.S. jobs may test the resilience of the current rally. For investors seeking new crypto assets and real‑world blockchain applications, the coming week will offer pivotal signals for the next phase of this historic bull market.
