Main Points:
- Miner revenues plunged to $34.17 million on June 22, the lowest since April 20, 2025.
- Daily BTC outflows from miner wallets to exchanges fell from 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to 6,000 BTC as of June 26, indicating muted selling pressure.
- Addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC increased reserves from 61,000 BTC on March 31 to 65,000 BTC by June 26, the highest since November 2024.
- Bitcoin’s network hashrate dropped 3.5% since June 16, the largest decline since July 2024, following the recent halving.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $547.7 million on June 25, contributing to tightening supply.
- Corporate treasuries, such as Metaplanet Inc., continue accumulating, further supporting the supply squeeze thesis.
1. Revenue Slump Amid Halving Impact
On June 22, 2025, Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue fell to just $34.17 million, marking their weakest earnings since April 20, 2025, when daily revenue last hit a similar low of $34 million. This downturn stems from the combination of the April halving—cutting block rewards in half—and declining transaction fees as network activity subsides in a market increasingly viewing BTC as a store of value rather than a medium of exchange.
The drop represents a significant revenue contraction: from peaks above $50 million earlier in June (e.g., $53.55 million on June 26) back down to multi-month lows. Despite some recovery later in the week, miners remain underpaid compared to pre-halving norms, with profitability squeezed by high operational costs and lower on-chain fee income.
Miner Daily Revenue Comparison
2. Muted Selling Pressure
Contrary to expectations that lower profits would force miners to liquidate, outflows from miner wallets headed to exchanges have tumbled dramatically. In February 2025, miners were moving approximately 23,000 BTC per day onto exchanges at the peak of sell-side pressure; by June 26, that figure had shrunk to around 6,000 BTC daily.
This 74% drop in daily outflows signals that miners are choosing to hold rather than sell, likely betting on higher future prices to restore margins. Such restraint has parallels in past cycles, where forced selling was minimal despite adverse conditions, setting the stage for subsequent recoveries.
Miner BTC Outflows Comparison
3. Reserve Accumulation Trends
Data from CryptoQuant shows that wallets with 100–1,000 BTC have grown their holdings from 61,000 BTC on March 31, 2025, to 65,000 BTC by June 26, 2025—the highest level observed since November 2024. This roughly 4,000 BTC accumulation underscores miner confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects despite near-term revenue headwinds.
The surge in reserves at this scale suggests miners are prepared to weather the current profitability drought, expecting that the confluence of reduced miner selling and rising demand could catalyze the next bullish leg.
Miner BTC Reserve Holdings Comparison
4. Hashrate Decline and Its Implications
Since June 16, Bitcoin’s total network hashrate has declined by approximately 3.5%, marking the largest drop since July 2024. This pullback in computational power follows the halving event, which slashed miner rewards and made some operations temporarily uneconomical.
Historically, similar hashrate contractions occurred after major regulatory or network events—for example, China’s mid-2021 mining ban—but miners largely avoided panic selling, instead allowing unprofitable rigs to idle. In each case, the subsequent rebound in hashrate and price laid the groundwork for a strong market recovery.
5. Institutional Demand and Exchange Supply
On the demand side, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs reported a robust net inflow of $547.7 million on June 25, contributing to over $1.1 billion of inflows in the preceding 10 days. ETF channels, which played a pivotal role in the Q1 2024 rally, are again absorbing significant BTC supply, tightening the balance between available coins and investor appetite.
Meanwhile, BTC balances on centralized exchanges have fallen from over 3.2 million BTC in July 2022 to around 2.4 million BTC in June 2025—a 25% decline—reducing the immediate sell-side liquidity and making price spikes more likely when demand surges.
6. Corporate Treasury Accumulation
Beyond ETFs, corporations are actively bulking up on BTC. On June 26, 2025, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet Inc. disclosed acquiring an additional 1,234 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 12,345 BTC, with a target of 210,000 BTC by 2027. Such corporate strategies mirror entities like MicroStrategy, whose sustained purchases have anchored investor expectations and contributed to market tightness.
Conclusion: Supply Squeeze Brewing?
The intersection of underpaid but unwilling-to-sell miners, declining BTC reserves on exchanges, robust ETF inflows, and aggressive corporate buying creates a potent supply squeeze scenario. Historical precedents—in mid-2021’s hashrate collapse and late-2022’s FTX fallout—demonstrate that miner resilience amid adverse conditions can accelerate recoveries. If current accumulation trends persist and demand continues from institutional and corporate channels, Bitcoin may soon test new highs as circulating supply tightens further.
