Main Points:
- Bitcoin cracked a fresh all-time high of $113,800, driven by surging stablecoin liquidity and institutional demand.
- SSR MACD crossover signals a wave of new capital entering the market.
- Retail selling pressure eased, with exchange inflows dipping below $12 billion.
- Binance’s market share surpassed 49%, highlighting its dominance and deep liquidity.
- Macro tailwinds—dovish Fed stance and political support—fueled risk-on sentiment.
- On-chain and fund flow data point to a shift toward institutional participation.
- Broader crypto ecosystem updates: record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and new Solana ETF filings.
- Polymarket forecasts a 60% chance of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 by the end of July.
Bitcoin Shatters Previous Records with $113,800 Peak
Bitcoin surged to $113,800 on Thursday, marking its highest-ever closing price on a daily chart. This new zenith reflects a market-wide shift into a fresh price-discovery phase, bolstered by abundant stablecoin reserves and intensified institutional activity. Following Wednesday’s initial breakthrough above $110,000, the cryptocurrency extended its rally amid favorable technical and fundamental indicators.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) MACD indicator—a gauge of purchasing power from USD-pegged tokens—registered a bullish crossover, signaling an impending infusion of fresh liquidity into Bitcoin markets. Historically, such crossovers precede significant price advances, as idle capital finds its way onto trading books.
At the same time, retail-driven selling pressure waned. Aggregate Bitcoin inflows into exchanges over the past 30 days fell below $12 billion, the lowest level since April 2025, suggesting that short-term profit-taking has subsided, allowing upward momentum to build.
Institutional players have been stepping into the arena in force. Binance’s market share in spot BTC trading climbed above 49%—a testament to its ability to attract deep-pocketed investors with robust infrastructure and sizable order books. Whale-level transactions on Binance have spiked, underscoring the growing role of large accounts in steering market direction.
SSR MACD Crossover: A Harbinger of Fresh Capital
What It Means: The SSR MACD indicator compares the velocity of stablecoin balances against Bitcoin reserves on exchanges. A bullish MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, implying that ample USD-backed liquidity is poised to buy Bitcoin.
Recent Behavior:
- On July 9, the SSR MACD flipped bullish, a pattern that preceded the mid-March surge past $105,000.
- CryptoQuant data shows stablecoin reserves on exchanges at multi-month highs, with USDT and USDC deposits totaling $31 billion—a record level of potential buying power.
This confluence suggests that the reserve funds waiting on the sideline could soon fuel additional price advances, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $120,000.
Retail Exodus and Institutional Inflows
Data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable decline in net retail Bitcoin deposits to exchanges—dropping below $12 billion for the first time since April 2025. Reduced inflows often correlate with diminished short-term sell-side pressure, which can underpin steadier gains.
Meanwhile, institutional flows have accelerated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which debuted in January 2024, have collectively gathered over $50 billion in AUM this year alone, reflecting growing investor appetite for regulated, liquid exposure to BTC.
Moreover, crypto-focused funds reported record assets under management in the first half of 2025, buoyed by ETF approvals and renewed optimism in digital assets. Institutional crypto allocations surged by 87% year-over-year as of June 27, with AUM in physical Bitcoin ETPs exceeding $100 billion—a clear indicator of robust confidence from professional investors.
Binance’s Domination and Whale Activity
Binance’s market share in spot BTC trading eclipsed 49% in late June, outpacing all other major venues. This dominance is fueled by:
- Deep order books: Allowing large blocks to execute with minimal slippage.
- Institutional infrastructure: Tailored services for whales and professional traders.
- Competitive fees: Attracting a broad spectrum of participants.
On-chain analytics reveal heightened whale-scale transfers moving into Binance wallets, coinciding with the price surge. Their involvement often presages sustained trends, as sizeable buy orders can absorb supply at key levels.
Macro Tailwinds and Political Backdrop
Monetary policy dynamics have tipped in Bitcoin’s favor. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting hinted at possible rate cuts later in 2025, encouraging risk-assets . Concurrently, political developments in the U.S. have been broadly supportive of crypto innovation, with upcoming “Crypto Week” in Congress (July 14–20) expected to spotlight draft bills aiming to clarify digital asset regulation.
These dovish and pro-crypto signals have amplified speculative activity, reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin may serve as a portfolio diversifier as well as a speculative vehicle.
Wider Crypto Landscape: ETFs and Altcoin Moves
Beyond Bitcoin, the ETF revolution shows no signs of slowing. Invesco filed for a Solana spot ETF on June 25 to capitalize on demand for non-BTC exposure, underscoring growing interest in layer-1 alternatives. And the Trump Media & Technology Group’s Bitcoin ETF filing highlights the continued push by asset managers to deliver regulated crypto products to the mass market.
Polymarket’s crowd-sourced forecasts assign a 60% probability that BTC will hit $115,000 by the end of July, reflecting market optimism and self-fulfilling momentum potential.
Technical Outlook and Potential Risks
Short-term Levels:
- Support: $108,000 (previous resistance now flipped)
- Resistance: $120,000 (psychological barrier and call-strike concentrations)
Risks to Monitor:
- Sudden spikes in funding rates could trigger liquidations in perpetual futures markets.
- Macro surprises—such as inflation surprises or regulatory clampdowns—could induce volatility.
However, the confluence of robust fundamentals, institutional backing, and favorable policy suggests the uptrend may persist toward the $120,000 target in July.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s ascent to $113,800 epitomizes a renewed phase of price discovery fueled by stablecoin liquidity, muted retail selling, and overwhelming institutional demand. Technical indicators, such as the SSR MACD crossover, forewarn of further inflows, while on-chain and exchange data underscore a market increasingly shaped by large-scale participants. Macro factors—from Fed rate-cut prospects to pro-crypto legislative momentum—further bolster the bullish case. As spot ETFs continue to gather billions and altcoin exposure ETFs emerge, the crypto ecosystem solidifies its grip on mainstream finance. While short-term volatility remains possible, the trajectory points toward $120,000 and beyond, marking yet another historic milestone in Bitcoin’s evolution.
