Bitcoin is trading around $59,400–$60,000 as of late June 2026, with Jan3 CEO Samson Mow declaring that “the bottom is in” thanks to a massive $58,000 buy wall.
With Bitcoin reportedly triggering a crypto fell-off and roughly $850 million in liquidations, Samson Mow, founder of Jan3 and one of Bitcoin’s most outspoken long-term proponents, maintains a bullish stance that contrasts with analysts who still expect further downside, noting Bitcoin’s long-term structural drivers and forecasting future hyperbitcoinization.
This demonstrates a split in market sentiment as traders weigh macroeconomic pressures and on-chain signals.
In an X post, Mow claimed that Bitcoin’s current cycle has reached its market bottom, arguing that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer evolving.
What the Historical Figures State
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has experienced heightened volatility
After reaching an all-time high earlier in 2026, the asset corrected sharply, testing support levels in the high $50,000s.
By June 25, Bitcoin was trading near $59,400, stabilizing after weeks of selling pressure. On-chain data from Glassnode showed that 10.7 million BTC were held at a loss, the highest figure on record, a metric that historically coincides with local bottoms.
Mow further emphasized that Bitcoin’s increase within 37 days prior to the April 2025 halving, covering the traditional four-year market cycle, has accelerated, making historical cycle comparisons less predictable.
Broader Crypto Market Sentiments
Several analysts support Mow’s stance that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle is emerging, following Bitcoin’s record high prior to April 2024 halving. Some have insisted that institutional inflows driven by US spot Bitcoin ETFs could be reshaping the market, as they influence institutional investors and lessen Bitcoin’s typical market cyclical volatility.
While Mow’s optimism has energized Bitcoin maximalists, other analysts remain cautious.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research projects a bottom closer to $55,000 between August and October, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned of a potential drop to $40,000 within six months.
CoinDesk analysts also argue that Bitcoin may need to fall another 15% to test the 200-week moving average around $50,000–$54,000 before a durable low can be confirmed
Others project additional downturns, with indicators derived from Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week simple moving average is currently declining toward the 100-week average, signaling a “bear cross.”
Despite the bearish market setup, previous Bitcoin bear crosses have generally marked market bottoms, suggesting bullish signals to some analysts.
Present Factors Contributing to BTC Shifts
Several macroeconomic and structural factors are influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory:
- Liquidity and Buy Walls: The $58,000 buy wall has provided strong support, signaling investor conviction.
- Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy: Falling oil prices have eased inflationary pressures, but the Fed remains cautious, keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Future monetary policy decisions could sway Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.
- Institutional Confidence: Tether’s Q1 2026 profit of $1.04 billion and total assets of $191.77 billion have bolstered confidence in crypto infrastructure, countering coordinated FUD campaigns.
- Correlation with Gold: Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold has risen to 0.364, suggesting investors view it as a partial safe haven during macro shocks.
Price Outlook for the Coming Days
Historically, Bitcoin has often declined toward its realized price across a significant bear market prior to reaching a cycle bottom.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $58,000 and $62,000 in the short term, with the buy wall acting as a stabilizing force.
If macroeconomic conditions continue to ease, a rebound toward $65,000 could materialize. However, if inflation resurges or institutional sentiment weakens, Bitcoin could retest lower levels in the mid-$50,000s.
For now, the market is split: Mow and other cycle-acceleration advocates see the bottom as already confirmed, while cautious analysts warn that historical patterns suggest more pain ahead.
