Main Points :
- Bitcoin is undergoing a $125,000, currently trading near $107,600.
- Short‑term bearish pressure dominates as the price remains below the 50‑day MA, though the 200‑day MA still signals long‑term uptrend.
- Key technical levels: support near $94,000; resistance at $117,570 to invalidate a double‑top formation.
- Prominent analyst Peter Brandt warns of potential distribution and supply pressure.
- Macroeconomic risks include upcoming U.S. employment, inflation data, and the late‑September Fed decision; seasonal “Red September” historically weak.
- Institutional demand remains robust; corporate BTC purchases outpace mining supply by 4×, and U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve underscores growing adoption.
- Mixed forecast: some expect a bounce late September, others warn of deeper pullback toward $100,000.
- Ethereum and other altcoins show relative strength; meme‑coins and pre‑sales draw fresh interest.
1. Market Overview – Continued Correction and Technical Landscape
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $107,640, marking a 1.02% drop from the previous day and a 2.04% decline week‑over‑week. Since reaching its August high of approximately $125,000, BTC has suffered a 13% correction. It remains below its 50‑day moving average (MA)—signaling short‑term bearish sentiment—but the 200‑day MA continues to slope upward, suggesting the long‑term uptrend is intact.
A critical level lies at $94,000, which serves as a potential support if the $100,000 psychological threshold breaks. Holding above this line will be essential for stabilizing the correction.
2. Technical Analysis – Double-Top, Distribution Pressure, Critical Resistance
Analyst Peter Brandt cautions that a large sell order observed recently represents heightened supply—a form of distribution that can form market tops. Charting a possible double‑top over the past seven weeks, Brandt notes that BTC must decisively exceed $117,570 to invalidate this pattern. Meanwhile, BTC is hovering near the $112,210 support line; a break below could accelerate the decline.
Historical seasonality reinforces this risk: Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, averaging around −3.77% returns due to factors like investor profit-taking, fall expense planning, and fund rebalancing.
Moreover, indicators such as the RSI showing bearish divergence on a 14‑week chart further suggest that the current bullish cycle may be nearing its end—even as some traders still position for year‑end gains toward $190,000 via call spreads.
Visually, the image above highlights BTC’s recent volatile swings, the breakdown under the 50‑day MA, and the critical support region—serving as a helpful reference to the technical narrative.
3. Macroeconomic Context – Markets Watch Fed and Economic Data Closely
Multiple high‑impact U.S. macro events loom in early September: employment numbers, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17 will be pivotal. The continuation of the recent rebound depends on how these indicators evolve.
Seasonality adds further pressure. Many funds are in fiscal year‑end mode, prompting portfolio rebalancing, profit realization, and reduction of risk assets—a common trend in September that favors downside moves.
Lastly, global bond issuance, such as Turkey’s plan to issue $500 million in dollar‑denominated bonds, risks siphoning liquidity away from risk assets like stocks and crypto.
4. Institutional Demand – Strong Corporate Buying and U.S. Bitcoin Reserve
Despite short‑term risks, institutional interest remains healthy. River’s report reveals that corporate BTC buying in 2025 is four times greater than mining supply, with firms holding approximately 1.3 million BTC—about 6.2% of total supply. This buying has been catalyzed by U.S. accounting changes allowing unrealized gains recognition.
Additionally, the U.S. government’s establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—via executive order in March 2025—reaffirms Bitcoin’s growing legitimacy as a reserve asset. Federal agencies are mandated to account for digital asset holdings, and a digital asset stockpile was created alongside the BTC reserve.
5. September Outlook – Mixed Scenarios and Altcoin Leadership
Looking ahead, experts present two divergent September scenarios:
- Bearish Continuation Toward $100K: Bitcoin could continue lower if technical support fails, possibly testing $100,000 or lower.
- Late‑Month Rebound: Alternatively, analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that due to stable institutional demand—such as spot ETF inflows and government purchases—a bullish uptrend could resume in late September, diverging from previous cycles.
Forecasts from sources like Changelly expect BTC in September 2025 to range between $108,800 and $124,300, with potential 14.6% ROI.
Against this backdrop, Ethereum (ETH) is showing stronger performance, while Solana (SOL) is being tipped for a new all‑time high by Bitwise’s CIO. Other altcoins and meme‑coins remain popular in trading circles, especially via pre‑sale speculation.
6. Summary & Takeaways
To summarize:
- Short‑term risks dominate: BTC is in correction, facing seasonality pressures and key resistance near $117K.
- Macro catalysts ahead: U.S. data and Fed decisions could trigger volatility.
- Structural support remains: Institutional buying and government action bolster fundamentals.
- Scenarios diverge: Either a dip toward $100K or a late‑month rebound could play out depending on sentiment and macro signals.
- Altcoins in focus: Ethereum and Solana warrant attention, especially amid institutional rotation and crypto diversification trends.
