Key Points:
- Data indicates Bitcoin bulls have amassed margin long positions around the $94,400 level in futures markets.
- Bitcoin futures open interest rose by approximately 2,000 BTC (about $189 million), and trading volume climbed 15%, signaling sustained buying pressure.
- Historical patterns show Bitcoin momentum often stalls before FOMC meetings and becomes volatile afterward; the May 7 decision could trigger similar dynamics.
Bullish Cluster Forms Near $94,400
Bitcoin (BTC) maintained firm support around the $94,500 mark in the hours leading up to the May 7, 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to data highlighted by analyst Axel Adler Jr., a significant concentration of margin long positions has emerged at approximately $94,400 in Bitcoin futures markets. This “bullish cluster” mirrors a similar formation observed at the end of April, which coincided with a rally to $97,500, suggesting that traders are once again gearing up for an upward move.
The formation of such clusters is often interpreted as a collective bet on price gains: when many traders open long positions at a specific price level, it can create a self-reinforcing support zone. Should BTC dip back toward that zone, buyers are likely to step in, dampening further declines and setting the stage for a rebound.
Open Interest and Volume Surge Signal Commitment
In tandem with the clustering of long positions, Bitcoin futures open interest—a measure of total outstanding derivative contracts—increased by roughly 2,000 BTC, equivalent to about $189 million, within just a few hours ahead of the FOMC announcement. This surge in open interest was accompanied by a 15% rise in aggregated trading volume on major futures exchanges, underscoring robust participation from institutional and retail traders alike.
Rising open interest in a rising market typically indicates that fresh money is flowing in to support the price trend, rather than traders merely rotating positions. Meanwhile, elevated volume confirms that this activity reflects genuine conviction, not just sporadic bets. Such confluence of higher open interest and volume often precedes sustained trending moves, as the market “catches” the interest of momentum-driven participants.
Funding Rate Dynamics: A Neutral Yet Fleeting Optimism
Funding rates—the periodic payments exchanged between long and short positions to anchor perpetual futures prices to spot—have hovered near neutral over the past eight hours. A neutral funding rate suggests balanced bullish and bearish sentiment; neither side dominates. However, on May 6, funding briefly spiked to 0.018%, indicating a temporary uptick in leverage-driven bullish sentiment among futures traders.
Short-lived funding rate spikes can signal moments of heightened optimism when leveraged traders pile into longs, only to reverse once profit-taking ensues. Monitoring these funding oscillations provides insight into the risk appetite of speculators: sustained positive funding typically precedes upward moves, whereas a sudden drop can foreshadow corrections.
Analyst Perspectives: Gold’s Post-FOMC Move as a Bellwether
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, reinforced the bullish outlook by pointing to Bitcoin’s recent bounce and suggesting that the cryptocurrency could continue its upward grind. He stressed that a key indicator to watch will be gold: if gold corrects following the FOMC decision, it could signal the start of a new business cycle favoring risk assets like Bitcoin.
Traditionally, gold and Bitcoin share an inverse short-term relationship around Fed events—when gold pulls back, capital often rotates back into equities and risk-on assets. A post-FOMC correction in gold prices would therefore bolster the case for renewed Bitcoin inflows, as investors seek alternative high-growth assets.
Historical FOMC Patterns: Momentum Stalls Then Explodes
Swissblock, a Swiss investment firm, analyzed Bitcoin’s 25-day rate of change (ROC) surrounding the last five FOMC interest rate decisions and found a recurring pattern: BTC momentum tends to lose steam beforehand and then experiences sharp volatility spikes afterward. Their chart, tracking October 2024 through May 2025, shows positive ROC trends aligning with price rallies in October–November 2024 and again in April 2025.
When ROC declined in January–February 2025, Bitcoin underwent a corrective phase. As of early May 2025, ROC remains on an upswing, hinting at the potential for another sustained advance if historical patterns hold. Such seasonality underscores the importance of macroeconomic catalysts—namely Fed rate decisions—in orchestrating Bitcoin’s near-term price choreography.
Potential Scenarios Post-FOMC
- No Rate Change with Dovish Guidance: If the Fed holds rates steady but signals concern over economic growth, markets could interpret this as a green light for continued liquidity support. Bitcoin, viewed as an inflation hedge and risk-on asset, may see sharp gains in that scenario.
- Rate Hike without Hawkish Tone: A modest hike accompanied by cautious forward guidance might spur a knee-jerk market sell-off, potentially testing the $94,400 support zone. However, the presence of the bullish cluster could limit downside, leading to a rapid snap-back rally.
- Rate Hike with Hawkish Stance: Should the Fed unexpectedly tighten more firmly, broader risk assets could suffer. Bitcoin might dip below key support, but strong futures positioning and neutral funding could cushion the fall, setting up a longer-term accumulation opportunity.
Implications for Crypto Investors and Practitioners
For readers exploring new crypto assets or seeking additional income sources, understanding these macro triggers is crucial. Active traders can use the $94,400–$95,000 range as a tactical entry or stop-loss anchor, depending on their risk tolerance. Meanwhile, blockchain practitioners and DeFi strategists should anticipate volatility spikes to optimize liquidations and collateral adjustments.
Institutional investors may view this period as a chance to shore up allocations before potential price appreciations. Meanwhile, developers building financial primitives on blockchain platforms can prepare for increased on-chain activity and liquidity flows following possible post-FOMC rallies.
Conclusion
As the market braces for the May 7 FOMC decision, Bitcoin futures data paints a bullish picture: a concentrated long position cluster at $94,400, a near $190 million increase in open interest, and heightened trading volume all point to sustained buying interest. Historical patterns suggest momentum may stall before the announcement and then explode in either direction, depending on the Fed’s tone. Key indicators—such as gold’s reaction to Fed guidance and funding rate fluctuations—will offer real-time cues for traders and investors. Whether you are scouting for new crypto assets, devising DeFi income strategies, or architecting blockchain-based financial services, staying attuned to these macro dynamics will be essential for navigating this critical inflection point in the market.
