Main Points :
- A large dormant whale moved ~32,322 BTC (≈ $600 billion JPY equivalent) after 3–5 years of inactivity, triggering market jitters
- Despite that, robust accumulation by large holders and institutions has continued, pushing Bitcoin to new highs
- Exchange net outflows remain strong, indicating reduced sell pressure and stronger conviction among holders
- ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and institutional demand are increasingly shaping price dynamics
- The tug-of-war between potential selling from awakened whales and structural demand could define near-term volatility
Introduction
In October 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced renewed tension. On one hand, an awakened “sleeping” whale moved a massive 32,322 BTC, which momentarily rattled sentiment and triggered a price dip from ~$125,000 to the ~$120,000 range. On the other hand, the underlying market structure remains supported by persistent accumulation from whales, institutional investors, and ETF demand, all while Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to shrink. This juxtaposition of risk and confidence underscores how Bitcoin’s price mechanisms are increasingly dependent on on-chain flows, supply constraints, and structural demand rather than mere speculative momentum.
Below is a narrative exploration of how these forces are evolving, what to watch, and how this interplay may shape the opportunities ahead. (Following this English version is a full Japanese translation.)
Dormant Whale Awakens: A Jolt to the Market
Cryptocommunity watchers noted that a wallet dormant for 3–5 years moved 32,322 BTC overnight, an amount equivalent to about ¥600 billion (in USD terms, that’s roughly in the billions of dollars). This transfer is now recorded as the largest movement of long-inactive Bitcoin so far in 2025. According to CryptoQuant’s Maartunn, this reactivation stirred uncertainty among market participants, contributing to a sharp drop from ~$125,000 to ~$120,000.
Historically, such large, long-dormant wallet movements often trigger fear, as they may reflect profit-taking by early adopters. Yet this time, the move was counterbalanced by continued bullish flows. The momentary price dip reveals how sensitive the market has become to whale activity, even when structural tailwinds remain strong.
Continued Whale Accumulation and Institutional Entry
Despite the market shock from the dormant whale, accumulation by large wallets has persisted—and even accelerated. Over the previous week, whales acquired more than 60,000 BTC, pushing the price to a fresh high of ~$126,080. Analysts, including Ali Martinez, attribute this bullish harmony to a concerted accumulation wave.
Address-level data shows that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC added over 60,000 BTC recently, reaching a total balance of ~5.11 million BTC. This accumulation phase appears to have begun around August, with momentum peaking in early October. The coincidence of accumulation and upward price movement suggests that major players are buying deep and holding rather than trading for quick profits.
On the institutional front, the buying pressure is even more structural. In Q2 2025, corporate treasuries reportedly purchased over 131,000 BTC—outpacing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETF flows themselves have been strong: in early October alone, U.S. ETFs drew in ~$3.24 billion, reversing outflows from September.
This confluence of demand—whales, treasuries, ETF investors—strengthens the argument that the current Bitcoin rally is not just cyclical but structurally underpinned.
Exchange Outflows: A Supply Squeeze in Motion
A critical metric in this dynamics story is exchange netflow: how much BTC is moving into or out of centralized exchanges. A consistent outflow signals that holders prefer self-custody or cold storage over readily tradeable exchange holdings—reducing the available supply for sale.
Data from CryptoQuant and other analytics platforms show the 14-day average net outflow is around −7,500 BTC, the lowest sustained outflow over a three-year span. This suggests that selling pressure is diminishing, even as price remains elevated near all-time highs.
Additionally, exchange reserves—the total BTC held on exchanges—have plunged to a 6-year low, between 2.45 and 2.83 million BTC. When only ~11 % of total Bitcoin supply is exchange-liquid, even modest buying demand can push prices sharply upward.
ETF Inflows and Corporate Holding: Demand from the Top
While whale accumulation and exchange outflows tighten supply, the key demand engine increasingly comes from institutions and ETFs. The rally to new highs was propelled by the convergence of supply stress and structural demand.
Major U.S. spot ETFs injected ~$3.24 billion in flows in early October, with BlackRock’s IBIT drawing ~$1.78 billion alone. Some analysts project that in Q4, ETFs may absorb over 100,000 BTC, double the amount freshly mined in the same period.
Corporate treasuries are also aggressively adopting Bitcoin as reserve assets. Not only is their accumulation outpacing ETFs in some quarters, but regulatory clarity—especially around taxation of unrealized crypto gains—is making institutional allocations more palatable.
Together, this creates a tighter supply-demand equation: supply is being withdrawn, and demand from high-conviction investors is absorbing the remainder.
The Balancing Act: Risk vs. Reward
While the structural picture appears bullish, the presence of awakened whales poses intermittent risk. A large dormant wallet movement—particularly one that ends up liquidating holdings—can provoke volatility and price stress. The market must balance:
- Potential downside from reactivated whale sales
- Upside from continued demand and constrained supply
- Volatility born of thin liquidity
In the near term, the price may oscillate between dips caused by whale activity and recoveries driven by accumulation and ETF inflows. Over time, however, if the demand pattern holds and exchange liquidity remains low, the bias skews upward.
What to Watch Next
- Further dormant wallet movements — repeated reactivations could test market resilience
- Sustained ETF inflows — whether they maintain or surpass current levels
- Exchange reserves and netflows — continued outflows would squeeze supply
- Macro and regulatory shifts — interest rates, crypto regulation, global capital flows
- Whale accumulation at scale — if whales coordinate accumulation rather than scatter it
From a tactical perspective, layering into positions gradually is prudent. Given the structural backdrop, the opportunity lies not in timing the top, but in aligning with the supply-demand squeeze that may persist for weeks or months.
Conclusion
The 2025 Bitcoin rally is being shaped less by speculative mania and more by fundamental on-chain dynamics. The awakening of a dormant whale triggered short-term shocks, but it has not derailed the broader trend of accumulation, supply contraction, and institutional demand. Exchange outflows hitting multi-year extremes, corporate and ETF buying surging, and whales still accumulating all support a narrative of structural strength.
That said, vigilance is required. Large wallet moves remain wildcards, and liquidity could become fragile. But for those seeking new crypto opportunities or deeper insight into blockchain’s real-world application, the current environment offers one of the clearest cases yet of how supply flows and demand structure drive value. The next few months may not be quiet—but they could be formative.
