Main Points:
- Three major macroeconomic developments over the weekend spurred heightened Bitcoin demand
- BTC/USD rallied to within $500 of $105,000, its strongest close since January 2025
- Technical indicators—golden cross on moving averages and a near-overbought RSI—point to continued upside
- Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs topped $5 billion in the past three weeks
- On-chain data show a 7 percent uptick in addresses holding over 1 BTC, signaling whale accumulation
- Geopolitical de-risking and favorable state-level crypto legislation further underpin sentiment
1. Weekend’s Macroeconomic Catalysts
Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s surge was anchored by three encouraging geopolitical developments.
- India–Pakistan Ceasefire: Leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad announced an immediate, “full and complete” ceasefire, relieving a key source of regional risk.
- U.S.–China Trade Progress: President Trump’s statement on his Truth Social platform heralded a “very good meeting” in Zurich, moving toward a broad “reset” in U.S.–China commercial ties.
- Ukraine–Russia Talks: President Putin signaled willingness to engage in “serious, no-precondition” talks with Kyiv, set for later this month in Turkey.
These factors collectively reduced global tail-risk, reigniting appetite for higher-beta assets like Bitcoin.
2. Price Action: Nearing $105,000
Bitcoin rocketed from a support base near $100,000 to an intraday peak just shy of $105,000 on May 10, 2025. After peaking, it settled around $104,500, representing a 1.5 percent gain over the prior 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s rally also persisted, with ETH/USD climbing 7.7 percent in the same window.
This marks BTC’s strongest advance since its January top of $109,225, and underscores Bitcoin’s reemergence as a leading risk asset alongside equities.
3. Technical Outlook: Golden Cross and RSI Signals
Technical charts bolster the bullish outlook. On May 9, the 50-day moving average for BTC crossed above the 200-day average, forming a classic “golden cross” seen historically as a sign of sustained momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index on the BTC/USD daily chart sits at 68—approaching overbought territory but still indicating room for further gains before a corrective pullback.
Analysts note that if Bitcoin can maintain support above $100,000, it could challenge its January high once more, with resistance clustered at $107,500 and $110,000. A breakdown below $93,780, however, would threaten to end this leg of the rally.
4. Institutional Inflows and ETF Demand
Institutional interest has been pouring in. Over the past three weeks, $5.5 billion has flowed into digital asset funds, including $1.8 billion directed specifically into Bitcoin products. Standard Chartered reports $5.3 billion of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs alone during this period.
State-level initiatives have also boosted confidence. Governors in Arizona and New Hampshire recently signed legislation to establish official Bitcoin reserves, signaling political support for on-chain assets. This institutional tide has been pivotal in driving prices back toward six figures.
5. On-Chain Accumulation Trends
On-chain metrics corroborate the accumulation theme. Glassnode data show a 7 percent increase in the number of wallets holding over 1 BTC as of May 9, 2025, suggesting that whales and large investors are quietly scooping up coins amid the rally. Moreover, trading volume on major exchanges like Coinbase jumped 20 percent to 25,000 BTC in the 24 hours through May 10, pointing to robust demand at these price levels.
Such accumulation by “smart money” often presages sustained uptrends, as supply gets locked away into long-term addresses.
6. Geopolitical and Regulatory Tailwinds
Beyond pure market mechanics, evolving regulatory and geopolitical landscapes are providing tailwinds. The U.S.–U.K. preliminary trade agreement alleviated fears of prolonged tariff escalation, while bipartisan state actions in the U.S. reflect growing political acceptance of crypto as a reserve asset.
On the global stage, reduced conflict risk in South Asia and new peace-talks in Europe are bolstering cross-asset sentiment, with investors reallocating into digital gold—Bitcoin—to hedge against latent macro uncertainties.
7. Risks and Considerations
Despite the bullish narrative, several risks remain:
- Overextended Technicals: An RSI above 70 could trigger a short-term correction.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Delays or rollbacks in U.S.–China trade talks may reintroduce volatility.
- Liquidity Constraints: Low trading volumes outside peak U.S. hours could amplify swings.
- Regulatory Shocks: Unexpected policy moves—such as digital asset crackdowns—could provoke sharp reversals.
Prudent traders and investors should monitor support levels at $100,000 and $93,780, and consider scale-in strategies to manage these risks effectively.
Conclusion
Drawing upon a confluence of positive macroeconomic developments, technical bullish signals, and strong institutional demand, Bitcoin has surged to within striking distance of $105,000—levels not seen since January. With on-chain data confirming whale accumulation and state-level legislation underscoring political acceptance, the rally exhibits both breadth and depth. Nonetheless, overbought technicals and lingering geopolitical uncertainties counsel measured exposure. As Bitcoin navigates these headwinds, its role as a non-correlated, high-beta asset continues to solidify in the diversified portfolios of both retail and institutional investors.
