Main Points:
- Bitcoin has experienced a gradual yet meaningful uptrend, trading above ¥13 million (＄90,466) on April 28, 2025.
- Technical indicators point to continued bullish momentum, with ¥14 million (＄97,425) as the next major resistance.
- Institutional adoption and macroeconomic uncertainty are key drivers of recent gains.
- Golden Week volatility remains a wildcard—watch for sudden moves amid thin holiday liquidity.
- Support near ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946) appears firm, but a shift in certification or policy could trigger sharp corrections.
As Japan’s Golden Week holiday enters full swing, Bitcoin (BTC) continues its measured ascent. Starting April 28 at ¥12,240,795 (＄85,183) and peaking at ¥13,797,359 (＄96,015), BTC/JPY displayed undeniable strength even as trading volumes thinned during the holiday period. While the short-term trend is upward, the combination of technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors suggests that caution remains warranted. In this article, we analyze price action, technical setups, driving forces behind the rally, potential headwinds, and what traders and long-term holders should watch as Golden Week unfolds.
1. Price Performance During Golden Week
On April 28 at 07:19 JST, BTC/JPY opened at ¥12,240,795 (＄85,183), rallied to a high of ¥13 797 359 (＄96,015), and settled around ¥13, 528,199 (＄94,142) by mid-morning. This represents an intraday gain of roughly 10 percent. Notably, since holding a local low of ¥10,817,149 (＄75,276) on April 6, BTC has climbed steadily, punctuated by a sharp surge from April 25–26 that broke above the former resistance at ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946).
Holiday trading during Golden Week often sees muted volumes, which can exaggerate price swings. Despite that, the breach of key resistance levels suggests genuine buying interest, not just a thin-market blip. If BTC can sustain above ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946), the psychological ¥14,000,000 (＄97,425) zone becomes the next target—a level last tested in early April.
2. Technical Trends and Indicators
2.1 Uptrend Confirmation
The one-hour chart shows higher highs and higher lows since the April 6 trough, confirming an uptrend. Short-term moving averages (5-, 8-, and 13-period SMAs) are aligned bullishly and sloping upward, a classic signal that momentum favors buyers.
2.2 Support and Resistance
- Support: ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946) has acted as a springboard after the latest breakout. Below that, ¥13,000,000 (＄90,466)—previously resistance—is now a secondary support.
- Resistance: ¥14,000,000 (＄97,425) is the nearest ceiling; beyond that, psychological and technical barriers cluster at ¥15,000,000 (＄104,384).
2.3 Oscillators and Volume
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the hourly chart hovers around 60, indicating bullish momentum but not yet overbought. Volume spiked during the April 25–26 rally, suggesting genuine participation rather than a vacuum-driven move.
3. Institutional and Macro Drivers
3.1 Institutional Flows
Institutional players have steadily increased BTC allocations this quarter. Major asset managers and corporations—such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Tesla—announced new purchases of spot BTC ETFs and direct BTC holdings, underpinning demand.
3.2 Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Global inflationary pressures, lingering geopolitical tensions, and currency devaluations have driven investors toward Bitcoin as a digital haven. The U.S. dollar index weakened 2 percent in April, while gold also surged, but BTC outpaced both in return over the past month.
3.3 Post-Halving Effects
Since the March 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s issuance rate halved, tightening supply. The historical post-halving trajectory has been bullish, and current on-chain metrics—such as declining daily active addresses versus rising transaction volumes—confirm a supply squeeze playing out.
4. Golden Week Volatility and Risks
Golden Week in Japan typically sees lower domestic trading volumes. Lower participation often amplifies price swings when large orders hit the market. Moreover, sudden policy announcements—such as a change in Japanese tax treatment for crypto gains or fresh regulations from the Financial Services Agency—could spark sharp moves.
Key Risk Factors:
- Regulatory Shifts: Rumors of stricter KYC requirements or taxation could prompt rapid sell-offs.
- Market Sentiment: A sudden risk-off shift (e.g., a hawkish central bank statement) can trigger BTC corrections.
- Liquidity Gaps: Thin holiday order books may widen bid-ask spreads, creating slippage for large trades.
Traders should set guards: consider scaling into positions, using stop-losses near ¥13,200,000 (＄91,858), and monitoring global news even over the holiday.
5. Outlook and Strategies
Bullish Scenario:
If BTC sustains above ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946) and breaks ¥14,000,000 (＄97,425) convincingly, momentum could carry it toward ¥15,000, 000 (＄104,384) by early May, driven by renewed inflows after Golden Week.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure to hold ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946) may provoke a retest of ¥13,000,000 (＄90,466). A sustained drop below ¥12,800,000 (＄89,075) could trigger a deeper pullback toward ¥12,000,000 (＄83,507), reflecting profit-taking or broader market risk aversion.
Strategy Tips:
- Trend Riders: Use moving average crossovers on shorter timeframes (e.g., 5/13 EMA) to time entries.
- Breakout Seekers: Await daily close above ¥14,000,000 (＄97,425) before adding fresh long positions.
- Risk Managers: Define risk per trade (e.g., 1–2 percent of capital) and employ stop-loss orders to guard against sudden dips.
Bitcoin’s trajectory through Golden Week 2025 underscores a resilient bullish bias, supported by institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. Yet holiday liquidity and regulatory watchers remain critical wildcards. With ¥13,500,000 (＄93,946) now acting as firm support and ¥14,000,000 (＄97,425) the next hurdle, traders and investors should prepare for both explosive breakouts and sharp corrections. As always, stay vigilant, manage risk, and keep an eye on both global developments and Japan’s unique trading calendar.
