Main Points：
- Prince Filip of Serbia warns that large market players may be capping Bitcoin’s upside ahead of a massive “Omega Candle” rally.
- Bitcoin’s deflationary design underpins its long-term value, with widespread “manipulation” possible until supply shocks overwhelm sellers.
- Samson Mow’s “Omega Candle” theory forecasts Bitcoin climbing to $100,000, then accelerating to $1,000,000 in daily moves.
- Recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (US$2.2 billion over three days) and a stable macro landscape are fueling renewed bullish sentiment.
- Analysts caution that lingering economic uncertainties and potential US recession risks could temper the extent of Bitcoin’s advance.
1. Market Suppression Ahead of the “Omega Candle”
In a recent interview with crypto media outlet Simply Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, Prince Filip Karađorđević, heir to the Serbian throne, suggested that “people can to some degree manipulate the market,” implying that large holders (“whales”) may be actively suppressing Bitcoin’s price. He noted that during the 2021 bull cycle, similar forces might have dampened the magnitude of price spikes, and he expects a repeat in 2025—at least until the so-called supply shock becomes too great to contain.
“In the 2021 rally, there may have been factors holding back the price from spiking. The same could happen again in 2025, but eventually, the price will burst free,” Filip said.
By highlighting the potential for market manipulation, Filip underscores a growing narrative among retail and institutional participants: that despite record inflows and optimistic on-chain metrics, Bitcoin’s true upside remains artificially capped until a critical liquidity threshold is breached.
2. Bitcoin’s Deflationary Nature as a Value Anchor
Prince Filip emphasized Bitcoin’s intrinsic deflationary characteristics—only 21 million coins will ever exist, and issuance halves roughly every four years. This built-in scarcity, he argues, ensures that “over time, its value will only go up.”
Historically, halving events have preceded prolonged bull runs, as the reduction in new supply coincides with steady or rising demand. Yet, until demand outstrips even the reduced issuance, large holders may choose to sell strategically, keeping prices within a controlled band.
“Bitcoin is inherently deflationary. Its value, over time, will always rise,” Filip noted, pointing to the long-term dynamics that differentiate BTC from fiat currencies subject to monetary expansion.
3. The “Omega Candle” Theory and its Implications
Filip referenced the concept of the “Omega Candle,” popularized by Jan3 CEO Samson Mow. According to Mow, once Bitcoin reaches $100,000, it could enter an explosive phase where daily price swings range in the tens of thousands of dollars.
- God Candle: A phase where BTC moves $10,000 per day.
- Omega Candle: The subsequent phase, characterized by daily moves of $100,000.
In a November 2024 interview with Cointelegraph, Mow envisioned a scenario where the long-anticipated supply shock—triggered by dwindling miner and whale sell-pressure—sparks an unprecedented parabolic ascent:
“We’ll see days where BTC moves up $10,000 or down $10,000—that’s the God Candle. After that, the Omega Candle hits, and daily moves of $100,000 become the norm,” Mow explained.
Mow attributes this potential behavior to growing distrust in traditional finance and the accelerating adoption of decentralized alternatives.
4. ETF Inflows and Macro Environment Fueling the Rally
Recent market data underscores a resurgence in Bitcoin’s momentum. Over the past week, BTC has rebounded by more than 9 percent, coinciding with substantial spot ETF purchases. Farside Investors reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired roughly US$2.2 billion worth of BTC across April 21–23, 2025—an average of over $700 million per day .
Bitfinex analysts tell Cointelegraph that this inflow aligns with a broader stabilization in equities and the U.S. dollar, alongside expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain accommodative monetary policy amid slowing economic indicators.
“Bitcoin’s price action mirrors relative strength against equities and the dollar. Macroeconomic stability, robust ETF inflows, and Fed flexibility are all underpinning the recent upswing,” said a Bitfinex strategist .
5. Catalysts and Risks: Earnings Season and Recession Concerns
Analysts identify two primary near-term catalysts for further Bitcoin gains:
- Positive Equity Correlation: If corporate earnings surprise to the upside during the current earnings season, risk assets—including BTC—could see additional inflows.
- Continued ETF Demand: Institutional adoption via ETFs remains a key driver; sustained daily purchases could tighten available supply on exchanges.
However, risks persist. Macro uncertainties—especially U.S. recession fears—loom large. JPMorgan Chase estimates a 60 percent chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, citing the impact of President Trump’s planned 145 percent tariffs on Chinese imports as a “serious threat to growth” .
Should growth decelerate sharply or policy uncertainty spike, capital could flow out of risk assets just as quickly as it entered, capping Bitcoin’s rally.
6. Outlook for Long-Term Investors
For long-term holders (“HODLers”), the deflationary issuance schedule and accelerating adoption narrative remain compelling. Even if short-term rallies are muted by whale activity, the structural drivers—scarcity, increasing institutional access, and monetary debasement fears—suggest a multi-year bull market.
Seasoned investors are thus weighing two scenarios:
- Controlled Ascension: A gradual climb to $100,000, punctuated by volatility but held in check by large-scale sellers.
- Explosive Breakout: A supply shock override, where “Omega Candle” dynamics take hold, pushing BTC into uncharted price territory.
Prince Filip’s warnings about price suppression add a fresh voice to the debate on Bitcoin’s true worth. His emphasis on deflationary scarcity, coupled with Samson Mow’s “Omega Candle” thesis, paints a picture of latent, explosive potential. Meanwhile, record ETF inflows and a stable macro environment provide the fuel, even as recession risks temper expectations.
Whether Bitcoin’s ascent will be a controlled journey to $100,000 or an all-out parabolic surge remains uncertain. For investors seeking new crypto assets and income opportunities, staying attuned to ETF flows, macro signals, and on-chain metrics will be essential. As Filip predicts, the day when “you just can’t hold back Bitcoin’s price any longer” may be closer than many realize—ushering in a new era of market dynamics and possibly unprecedented returns.
