Main Points
- Historic Correction: Bitcoin appears to have reached its bottom after falling about 30% from its previous all-time high of $109,000.
- Similar Past Patterns: This correction phase mirrors previous adjustment periods following major events—such as the U.S. spot ETF launch and the unwinding of yen carry trades—suggesting that a renewed bullish trend might follow.
- Key Price Levels: Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin may have bottomed around $76,000 on March 10, with subsequent price behavior forming a triangular pattern of lows and highs.
- Historical Precedents: Similar bottoming patterns were observed in August 2024, when Bitcoin hit a low near $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind, and in January 2024 following the U.S. Bitcoin ETF debut.
- Cautious Optimism: Despite external risks such as President Trump’s tariff policies potentially disrupting the trend, market analysts like Omkar Godbole of CoinDesk Markets see signs that the selling pressure may be exhausted, paving the way for a bullish recovery.
1. Introduction: Signs of a Bottom Formation
After a prolonged downward trend, investors are primarily focused on whether Bitcoin has finally found a bottom. Recent price action shows that Bitcoin may have reached its lowest point on March 10, around $76,000, after falling 30% from its record high of $109,000 recorded on January 20. This pattern is reminiscent of past correction phases that eventually led to strong rallies.
2. Similarities with Past Market Corrections
Historical events provide useful context. For example, during the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF launch last year, Bitcoin underwent a 20% correction and briefly dipped below $40,000 on January 23 before rebounding, with notable highs on both sides of the bottom. Similarly, in August 2024, during the yen carry trade reversal, Bitcoin bottomed near $49,000 on August 5, with highs forming around July 7 and September 7. These patterns suggest that after significant corrections, the market often forms a “triangle” of lows and highs, signaling that selling pressure has eased.
3. Recent Analysis and Expert Views
Omkar Godbole, Managing Editor at CoinDesk Markets, points to these recent patterns as an indication that Bitcoin may have bottomed. According to Godbole, the transition from lower lows to subsequent higher highs demonstrates that sellers are tiring, much like similar patterns seen in August 2016 and early 2024. While he remains optimistic about the potential for a bullish recovery, Godbole cautions that external factors—such as new tariff announcements by President Trump—could still disrupt the emerging trend.
4. External Risks and Future Outlook
One potential disruptor is the pending announcement of mutual tariffs by President Trump, which could inject further uncertainty into the market. Nevertheless, if these external risks subside, the pattern suggests that Bitcoin might be ready to rebound. The current technical setup, coupled with historically proven patterns, indicates that once the selling pressure is fully exhausted, Bitcoin could trigger a new bullish phase.
5. Conclusion
The recent 30% drop from Bitcoin’s all-time high and the subsequent formation of a triangular pattern around the bottom suggest that the market may have reached a temporary floor. Although external risks remain, particularly regarding potential tariff measures, the overall technical picture points to an eventual recovery. Investors should keep a close watch on key support levels and upcoming economic events, as these will determine whether the emerging bullish trend will hold.
