According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is expected to follow a trend similar to the same incident in March 2022 bear market as demand declines and market sentiment conditions shifting to significantly bearish outlook. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling against resistance at the 200-day rolling average, close to $82,400 prior to pulling back of about $76,000. The value shows a replicate movement when Bitcoin surged about 43% from its lows prior to climbing the 200-day rolling average and continuing its bearish trend.
Julio Moreno, CrytoQuant’s head of research, highlighted that bitcoin increases about 37% from the Month of April lows prior to struggling to the same friction level. Additionally, he noted that the 200-day rolling average has remained to serve as the key threshold between relief rally phases and trend resumption.
Moreno emphasized that the sentiment-driven demand on Bitcoin has declined due to speculative price on the asset during the month of April to May, when Bitcoin surged to approximately $82,000, while the investors began decreasing bullish leveraged trades.
He added that ETFs purchased about 4,000 bitcoins on a net amount after acquiring approximately 64,000 Bitcoin across the 30-day period in the current month, increasing from 0.4 to 1.8 from the previous week, showing a change toward investors locking in gains.
In support, Bitfinex analyst also noted that the speed of the recent downturn is an indicator that a short surge earlier this year was driven by a structural deficit. Likewise, Moreno emphasized that the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium continued to decline during the same month between April to May. This decline shows that the United States firms and retail investors have not backed to the market. In the past years, Bitcoin remains bull market associated with a positive Coinbase premium.
The Bull Score Index also shows a major decline, falling from 40 back to 20, which claims to be the significant bearish market. The data shown that Bitcoin continues to decline from February to March 2026 approximately $60,000 to $66,000. In the past years, market data between 0 and 20 have frequently followed by other price declines or an extended consolidation phase.
Overall, if Bitcoin’s correction extends further, Moreno noted approximately $70,000 as an important support level, in relation to the Trader’s Onchain Realized Price. This indicator shows a support or resistance during the previous cycle stage between October 2025 and January 2026. The indicators also reflect that traders would have no unrealized gains or facing unrealized losses, lowering the reward to sell and historically enabling demand to recover and stabilize prices.
According to TheBlock, Bitcoin is currently trading approximately an increase of about 0.6% over the past 24 hours.
