Tom McClellan, a technical analyst, conveyed a major transition in the supply and demand of Bitcoin (BTC), signaling that traders in future markets shift from net selling in the latter half of 2025 to a large-scale net buying. This transition recommends a possible change in traders’ decision within the BTC futures strategy.
According to Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, demonstrating that the market design may back a short-term rally, despite broader ambiguity in price point.
In the same period, BTC concisely recovered $80,000 approximately 12.6 million yen, showing continued progress after the past decline from its historical high of $126,198 in October.
Absence of Commercial Traders
According to the COT report, market players are classified into three categories, such as commercial, non-commercial, and small. McClellan highlighted that there’s no participants in commercial traders in BTC futures; large traders play a role equivalent to smart money in this market.
Supply-Demand Transition Pressure Traders Toward Net Buying
The large traders who are corresponding to smart money were tending towards notable overselling in the latter half of 2025.
McClellan’s post validates that a shift in supply demand on the latter half of 2025 will be turned into a large-scale net buying.
Additionally, the COT data does not provide an accurate timeline, as supply-demand transitions may not immediately convert into price change.
BTC Reaches Lowest Price Level, Bearish Outlook Ongoing
Brandt highlighted multiple upside rejections within a descending channel on BTC’s daily chart. He added that BTC could still reach its lowest price between late September and October 2026.
Despite the bearish concern, it indicates a potential transition in supply and demand in the future market among large traders.
BTC Rose 17% As Traders Aimed At The 200-Day Moving Average
In April, BTC rose about 17% and recovered about $80,000 despite renewed market strength. BTC ETFs also obtained $1.97 billion of about 310 billion yen, marking the leading monthly inflow of 2026.
The development in future positioning and strong ETF inflows underscored a broader connection between traders’ perceptions and spot demand. Thus, market trends are increasingly in relation to the 200-day moving average as drivers for technical standards.
