Main Points：
- Ethereum (ETH) has plunged by over 35% since October 6, indicating a major market move rather than a mere correction.
- On-chain data reveal that long-term holders are selling while leveraged traders are being liquidated, but at the same time institutional investors are quietly absorbing ETH supply.
- The market appears to be undergoing a significant supply-side re-shuffling: who controls the ETH supply is changing.
- This phase may present a strategic accumulation opportunity for new crypto assets linked to Ethereum’s ecosystem.
- For practitioners building on blockchain and investing in new assets, this suggests a shift from speculative momentum to structural repositioning.
1. The Crash: 35 %+ Drop Signals Something More
Since October 6, ETH has experienced a drop exceeding 35 %, delivering a heavy blow to speculative sentiment and triggering a wave of forced liquidations. The reported crash (from the original Japanese source) aligns with data showing ETH dropping to around $3,300 in early November before bouncing slightly. According to one report, ETH traded near $3,200 on November 17, 2025. Meanwhile, as of November 11, ETH fell below $3,590, reinforcing a new lower trading range.
The scale of the decline (35 %+) marks this event as more than a routine pull-back. It suggests underlying shifts in supply and investor positioning that go beyond short-term sentiment.
In this context, the key question for the market—and for investors—is: Is this purely a speculative bust, or is it the beginning of a strategic repositioning of holdings?
2. Who Is Moving the Supply? Long-Term Holders vs. Institutions
On-chain and OTC data give us clues about a changing distribution of ETH supply.
Long-Term Holders and Liquidations
Some metrics show that long-term ETH holders (i.e., wallets that have held for extended periods) have begun taking profit. Simultaneously, leveraged traders have faced forced liquidations amid the price drop. One analysis stated that the drop to $3,277.94 reflected a liquidation-driven flush, not necessarily a loss of long-term conviction.
Institutional Accumulation
Counterintuitively, while the price collapsed, several on-chain and OTC signals point to institutional accumulation:
- One article reports that institutions bought more than $1 billion worth of BTC and ETH through OTC channels during a week of weakness in November 2025: one address added nearly 40,000 ETH.
- Another piece notes that “whales” and institutions are aggressively buying ETH during the collapse.
This dual dynamic—long-term holders and leveraged speculators exiting, while institutions quietly enter—suggests a supply reallocation stage: the holders of ETH are changing.
3. Structural Outlook: Market Re-Structuring Rather than Collapse
Rather than simply a bearish meltdown, the data suggest a structural reset in the ETH market.
Reset vs. Crypto Winter
One analysis argues that ETH’s crash “looks less like the beginning of a crypto winter and more like a large-scale profit-taking reset.” Another frames the drop as moving ETH into a “tactical accumulation zone” rather than a trend continuation of decline.
Support/Resistance Landscape
Technically, ETH is trading near key levels. One report states ETH is near $3,400, with $3,570 marked as short-term resistance. A break above could signal a recovery, while a drop below might open further losses.
Institutional Signals as Leading Indicator
Recent data show that institutional whale activity is serving as a leading indicator for price shifts. According to a news piece, Ethereum’s rebound to $4,500–$4,800 later in 2025 followed an institutional buying spike.
4. Implications for New Crypto Assets and Practical Blockchain Use
For our audience—those hunting new crypto assets, seeking income opportunities, and interested in practical blockchain applications—the current ETH reallocation phase presents several actionable implications.
a) Entry Point for ETH-Based Ecosystem Assets
If institutions are accumulating ETH structurally, this may underpin future growth in ETH-based ecosystem projects: layer-2s, roll-ups, DeFi protocols, dApps built on ETH. Consider smaller assets with strong fundamentals in the Ethereum ecosystem that might benefit from a structural ETH up-leg.
b) Risk-Adjusted Opportunity Window
The current environment—suppressed price, heavy liquidation, institutional accumulation—may represent an opportunity with improved risk-reward. The asymmetric play is that price is lower, supply is becoming more consolidated among serious actors, and structural catalysts remain (e.g., further ETH upgrades, L2 expansion).
c) Practical Use Case Focus
From a blockchain application standpoint, the message is: institutional capital may be repositioning not just in ETH but in the infrastructure around Ethereum (staking services, validators, roll-ups, cross-chain bridges). For those designing products or wallets (for example your own non-custodial wallet project), now is a time to embed Ethereum ecosystem compatibility, L2 support, and readiness for institutional flows.
5. What to Watch Going Forward
Here are a few key watch-points for the next phase:
- ETH support at around $3,250-$3,400: If broken decisively, the reallocation narrative could reset further. Otherwise, holding this zone may validate the structural accumulation story.
- Institutional inflows / whale accumulation data: Continued accumulation via OTC and large wallets is a strong positive signal. The $1 b+ private purchase of ETH in November is a key flag.
- Spot ETF behaviour and retail flows: While institutions accumulate OTC, retail flows and ETFs (if applicable) will show whether broader market participation supports the move.
- Ethereum upgrade and ecosystem news: Technical progress on ETH (e.g., scalability upgrades) and growth in L2 ecosystems will reinforce demand for ETH and related assets.
- Macro / regulatory environment: While less emphasised here, broader macro risk or regulatory shocks could impact sentiment. However, a structural repositioning is more resilient than speculative momentum.
