Main Points :
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cast doubt on a December rate cut, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and reminding the crypto market that macro-risks remain.
- Bitcoin is still trading above its 200-day simple moving average (~US $109,250) but remains well below a key resistance zone defined by the Ichimoku cloud — a mixed technical picture.
- The rising US dollar index (DXY) and a bullish crossover in its 50- and 100-day moving averages suggest a stronger dollar ahead, which tends to weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
- On the derivatives front, data via Amberdata and options exchange Deribit show elevated implied volatility premiums on put options — signaling increased hedging activity by market participants.
- For Bitcoin bulls to regain traction, a clear breakout above the Ichimoku cloud resistance (around US $116,000) appears necessary. Until then, caution is warranted.
Hawkish Fed rhetoric shakes risk appetite
The recent comments from Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December have injected fresh uncertainty into financial markets, including crypto. Although Bitcoin currently trades above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of approximately US $109,250 (using USD conversion at roughly US$1 = ¥150), the rally is far from assured.
The 200-day SMA is often considered a long-term trend benchmark: Bitcoin being above it is a bullish structural signal. Nevertheless, price action shows that Bitcoin remains below the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart — and this is where the more immediate technical and momentum risks lie.
Technical snapshot – 200-day SMA vs. Ichimoku cloud
While holding above the 200-day SMA offers a floor for bulls, the fact that price is trading beneath the Ichimoku cloud is a warning sign. In the framework of the Ichimoku system:
- When price is below the cloud (Kumo), the trend is considered weak or turning bearish.
- Breakdowns below the cloud often lead to accelerated declines; some previous studies flagged Bitcoin’s cloud breach as a path toward lower lows.
Consequently, although a long-term bullish bias may persist, momentum and near-term structure are compromised.
In practical terms: Bitcoin may remain range-bound or see downward pressure until it convincingly breaks above the cloud (around US $116,000 in the referenced article). Without that breakout, bulls risk being overtaken by technical deterioration.
Dollar strength and bond yields — macro headwinds
The macro backdrop illustrates a convergence of risk factors working against Bitcoin’s near-term upside:
- The US dollar index (DXY) shows a bullish crossover in its 50- and 100-day moving averages, a technical pattern that suggests the trend for the dollar may strengthen.
- Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded above 4%, indicating that the bond yield environment is firming — a scenario typically associated with dollar strength and pressure on risk assets.
A stronger dollar and higher yields can dampen speculative flows and increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Options market tells a bearish story
On the derivatives front, traders are actively taking measures to hedge downside risk:
- Amberdata tracks data from Deribit and shows that implied volatility premiums on put options (insurance bets) remain elevated relative to calls — signaling that participants see a meaningful probability of downside.
- A large block trade in April 2025 (more than US $1 million premium on a US $70,000 strike put) is a concrete example of this cautious sentiment.
For those hunting new crypto income or tokens, this indicates a market that is not yet in full bullish conviction mode — meaning the environment may favour opportunistic setups rather than broad momentum plays.
Implications for new crypto-asset investors and blockchain adopters
For readers looking to discover new crypto assets, deploy capital into potential income sources, or apply blockchain in practical business use-cases: here are relevant take-aways:
- With Bitcoin under pressure, altcoins and niche tokens may offer stronger relative upside if Bitcoin remains stuck or slowly declines. But this also increases risk — many altcoins correlate with the general crypto market and could get dragged down.
- Elevated put premiums signal hedging demand. If you’re designing token launches, consider how investor sentiment (fear/hedge demand) may influence funding, tokenomics, and marketing narrative.
- On the blockchain infrastructure and utility side: periods of subdued broad crypto market momentum may be ideal times to focus on fundamentals — partnerships, regulatory clarity, real-world use-cases — since speculative froth is lower.
- For advanced traders or token issuers: keep a close eye on Bitcoin chart behaviour (200-day SMA, Ichimoku cloud breakout) and macro drivers (dollar, yields) as leading indicators for broader market shifts.
What must happen for bulls to reclaim control?
From the analysis, a few conditions stand out that would need to align for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to regain upward momentum:
- A clean breakout above the Ichimoku cloud resistance zone (around US $116,000) would signal regained momentum and possibly restore confidence among bulls.
- Signs of easing dollar strength or a flattening/declining US Treasury yield environment — these would reduce macro headwinds.
- A reduction in hedge demand in the options market — e.g., put premiums narrowing relative to calls — which would suggest risk appetite returning.
Until these signals align, the market remains in a caution phase. For those seeking new assets or income opportunities, this means selectivity is critical — rather than broad bets.
Conclusion
In summary, the recent hawkish tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cast a cloud of caution over Bitcoin and by extension the wider crypto market. While Bitcoin is still above its long-term 200-day average, it remains trapped beneath the Ichimoku cloud — a technical barrier that signals caution. The strengthening dollar and rising yields add macro pressure, and the options market continues to reflect hedging behaviour rather than bullish speculation.
For crypto investors focused on new assets, income generation, or blockchain applications, this environment is not about fearless conviction but strategic awareness. Tokens and protocols that deliver clear utility, strong fundamentals and differentiated narratives may stand out — but the broader tailwind from Bitcoin and risk-assets may be muted until key technical and macro signals shift.
In essence: until Bitcoin re-asserts higher momentum via a cloud breakout, the market remains in a transitional phase — a time for thoughtful positioning, not broad exuberance.
