Main Points :
- Broad altcoin rallies (“alt seasons”) may no longer occur — only theme-driven sectors may see upside.
- Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from altcoins and traditional markets.
- Market expectations and investor behavior (short time horizons) hinder sustainable project development.
- Recommendation is shifting toward “Bitcoin only” strategies among newcomers and advisors.
- Recent indicators and counterarguments suggest nuanced, sectoral rotations may still emerge.
1. The Bitget COO’s Warning: No More Broad Altcoin Season
Vugar Usi Zade, COO of crypto exchange Bitget, told Cointelegraph during Token2049 that the concept of an “alt season” — where most or all altcoins rally — is unlikely to recur in this cycle. He stated he is “very firm” in that belief:
“The whole idea that ‘this is altseason … and everything will go up because it’s altseason,’ we won’t see that.”
His reasoning is that there is no underlying logical foundation: projects are not delivering big technical breakthroughs, and there are no sweeping announcements to catalyze speculative mania.
Zade further argues that the crypto market is migrating from long, seasonal cycles to shorter, more frequent mini-cycles. He remarks that Bitcoin is forging its own rally, largely divorced from effects on the broader market: “Bitcoin decoupled not only from the stock market, but it also decoupled from altcoins.”
One concrete observation: we have seen multiple occasions where Bitcoin is the only major cryptocurrency in the green, while the rest of the market is in red — evidence, Zade suggests, that capital is no longer flowing downward from BTC to altcoins.
He argues that future price rallies will be limited only to tokens that fit within currently trending narratives. For instance, Real-World Asset (RWA) tokens are a popular narrative today, and those might see gains, but the upside will not spill over to unrelated altcoins.
2. Market Mindset & Structural Issues: Why Alts Struggle to Sustain
Zade criticizes the current mentality of crypto investors: expectations of short-term returns place enormous pressure on nascent projects. He draws a contrast to traditional business: Amazon took more than a decade to turn a profit, yet many crypto projects are expected to monetize within eight months.
In established industries, early investors often exit and others — such as VCs — take over financing. In crypto, token issuance often results in immediate distribution to public investors, making it difficult to maintain capital support through volatile cycles. Zade warns that if a token’s price falls toward zero, resurrection is nearly impossible — the project is essentially dead.
This dynamic (short-term pressure, immediate distribution) imposes survival challenges on many altcoin projects, especially ones lacking strong fundamentals or real-world use cases.
3. “Just Hold Bitcoin”: The Shift in Advice
An interesting change: Zade says that prominent voices in the industry have begun advising newcomers to simply hold Bitcoin, rather than diversifying into Ethereum or a basket of altcoins. The classic “BTC 70% / ETH 30%” allocation has fallen out of favor, he claims.
He points out that Ethereum, though relatively stable, has lacked the upside compared to Bitcoin, which has broken new highs over the past year. Thus, many investors currently see little rationale to buy ETH.
In the broader landscape, Bitcoin’s market share (dominance) is still substantial. At one point, it peaked at 65% over the past year, though it has dipped to ~58% more recently. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s share recovered from a low of ~7.3% (in April) to about 12% now.
4. Alternate Views & Recent Market Signals
While Zade’s caution is strong, the market is not uniformly bearish on all altcoin opportunities. Below are additional perspectives and data points worth weighing.
4.1. Bitwise & Institutional Signals
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, has argued that early indicators of an altcoin bull market may be forming — for instance, improvements in regulatory clarity (such as the SEC’s reduced hostility toward Coinbase) and the development of more sustainable protocol revenue models (e.g. fee switches).
He also notes that despite positive macro and regulatory trends, most altcoins remain deeply underperforming compared to Bitcoin — pointing to a lack of a compelling new use case to drive adoption.
4.2. Altcoin Season Index & Market Rotation
Recent data suggests some rotation into altcoins. The “Altcoin Season Index,” which measures how many altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day window, has neared 75 (a threshold often viewed as signaling alt season).
Bitcoin dominance has also declined to 57.4%, the lowest in some months, suggesting that capital may be moving away from BTC toward alternative tokens.
TrakX, in a recent market commentary, observed that in August 2025, Ethereum and Solana rallied strongly even as Bitcoin pulled back ~7%, interpreting this as a sign of capital shift into altcoins. They also pointed to updated regulatory guidance around liquid staking tokens (LSTs) as supporting DeFi activity.
However, Bitget’s own commentary warns that a full alt season might not happen, or that the bear market may already have begun.
4.3. Fragmented Narrative & Token Oversupply
According to 21Shares, one reason a classic alt season has not materialized is token oversupply and fragmented interest. In previous cycles, capital rotated in stages (BTC → ETH → midcaps → small caps). But today, thousands of tokens compete for attention, making it harder for broad rallies to synchronize.
They suggest a new format: sector-based rallies rather than uniform altcoin surges. If a narrative captures attention (e.g. AI, RWA, interoperability), tokens in that niche might outperform even if the broader market remains uninspired.
5. Strategic Implications for Crypto Investors & Builders
Given this evolving landscape, what should active investors, project teams, or newcomers keep in mind?
5.1. Focus on Narrative + Fit
If broad alt seasons are less likely, winners will cluster around strong narratives — sectors like RWA, cross-chain infrastructure, zero-knowledge proofs, AI integration, and tokenized real-world finance. Projects should clearly align with these narratives rather than being generic altcoins.
5.2. Sustainable Tokenomics & Revenue Models
Projects will need to build defensible token ecosystems — with on-chain revenue, fee sharing, staking yields, or utility beyond pure speculation. Speculative launches without sustainable mechanics will struggle.
5.3. Long-Term Mindset & Capital Structure
Teams and investors must accept longer timelines. Overly compressed expectations (profit in months) are unrealistic in many cases. Token allocations should be structured to allow runway and capital support through volatile phases.
5.4. Proper Diversification but Risk Management
While many voices now emphasize “Bitcoin only,” that is a defensive posture. For those seeking higher upside, selective exposure to project tokens with strong fundamentals is still valid — but only in sized amounts relative to risk tolerance.
5.5. Monitor Macro, Liquidity & Regulatory Tailwinds
As always, macro conditions, rate cuts, institutional flows, and legal clarity (e.g. MiCA in EU, U.S. SEC, crypto regulation elsewhere) remain key catalysts. If liquidity returns, alt sectors may receive renewed interest.
Conclusion: A More Discriminating Altcoin Landscape
Vugar Usi Zade’s assertion that broad altcoin seasons are unlikely echoes a broader shift in crypto’s market structure. Bitcoin increasingly moves on its own track, capital flows are more cautious, and investor expectations demand sustainable innovation over hype. That said, we are not necessarily in a zero-altcoin world. Rather, the next cycle may reward those selecting projects tied to strong narratives, durable tokenomics, and patient development.
For readers seeking new crypto assets or revenue sources: ask not “Which altcoin will explode with the crowd?” but rather “Which niche, with strong demand and real utility, is ripe for growth?” The future may favor narrow lanes, not broad highways.
