Main Points：
- XRP retraced ~22 % from its eight‑year high of $3.66 to $2.72 but has recovered to around $3.
- Technical outlook remains bullish: symmetrical triangle consolidation points toward a breakout.
- Analyst XForceGlobal maintains a cycle‑top target near $20, with scenarios ranging $19–$30.
- Short‑term breakout above $3 and $3.66 may lead XRP toward $4 (+34 %).
- Two potential upside scenarios: a classic distribution breakout or a Wave 3 surge via Elliott Wave positioning.
- Veteran trader Matthew Dixon supports the triangle as a distribution phase preceding Wave 5, targeting at least $4.
1. Price Action and Pullback Recovery
In mid‑July, XRP hit a notable milestone: a peak of $3.66—its highest level in eight years. This represented a strong bullish advance, but was soon followed by a substantial pullback, with prices retreating approximately 22 % to a low around $2.72. More recently, the market has shown resilience, pushing XRP back toward the $3 mark. This bounce suggests that the downward move may have been a healthy retracement or distribution phase, rather than the end of a bull cycle.
2. Macro Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite the sharp pullback, the broader technical and macro perspective on XRP remains constructive. Analyst XForceGlobal emphasizes that the recent decline aligns with historical patterns seen in XRP’s past cycles, where temporary drawdowns have prefaced sharp upward moves. He presents two plausible narratives:
- Scenario A: Distribution Before Breakout
XRP’s pullback may represent a redistribution stage similar to prior cycles. The altcoin may be laying the groundwork—absorbing selling pressure and resetting supply zones—before launching into one of its most powerful bullish moves to date. - Scenario B: Completing Flat Phase Ahead of Wave 3
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, XRP may currently be completing a flat or consolidation between Waves 1 and 2. Once this phase ends, a robust Wave 3 impulse might follow—often the strongest and most explosive wave in this framework.
In either scenario, XForceGlobal maintains a cycle‑top projection in the range of $19 to $30, with $20 singled out as a focal benchmark. Importantly, he notes that the present technical structure shows no signs of a deeper sell‑off.
3. Short-Term Technical Setup: Symmetrical Triangle and $4 Breakout Target
At the daily chart level, XRP is confined within a symmetrical triangle—a classic pattern often indicating continuation of the prior trend once broken. For a bullish trigger to be confirmed, XRP needs a decisive daily close above roughly $3, which would signal a breakout. The subsequent resistance at $3.66—its multi‑year high—would then become the next hurdle. A successful breach could propel XRP toward a measured target around $4, implying a roughly 34 % rise from current levels.
Supporting this technical view, veteran trader Matthew Dixon interprets the triangle consolidation as a distribution phase between Waves 3 and 4. A breakout from this pattern could catalyze an ensuing Wave 5 advance, targeting at least $4.
4. Longer-Term Wave Theory: $20–$30 Cycle Target
Beyond near‑term price setups, Elliott Wave analysis presents a bullish picture for XRP’s broader cycle trajectory. XForceGlobal projects a multi‑leg progression: initiating with Wave 3 driving prices into the mid‑to‑high single digits (possibly $5–$6), followed by a correction in Wave 4, culminating in a parabolic Wave 5 push reaching $20 to $30.
Alternative interpretations within the same framework paint a more accelerated path: Wave 3 potentially spiking to $27, with Wave 5 approaching the upper limit of $30.
5. Market Psychology and Technical Resilience
XForceGlobal underscores the psychological strength of XRP’s investor base, which has endured regulatory turmoil (notably the SEC battle), crypto‑market downturns, and years of structural underperformance. This long‑term resilience may be a key ingredient fueling the next bullish phase. He also observes smart money accumulation underway, while retail investors largely remain on the sidelines—suggesting that a renewed surge could attract broader market engagement.
6. Summary of Scenarios and Price Targets
| Scenario | Near-Term Target | Medium-Term / Cycle Target |
|---|---|---|
| Triangle Breakout | ~$4 (+34%) | $19–$30 (with $20 focal) |
| Wave 3 → Wave 5 via Elliott Wave | ~$5–$6 (Wave 3) | ~$20–$30 (Wave 5) |
| Aggressive Wave Count (fast eruption) | ~$27 (Wave 3) | $20–$30 range |
Performance above key resistance levels—$3 and $3.66—could signal momentum acceleration and further upside potential.
7. Conclusion
XRP’s recent correction appears to be a purposeful distribution rather than a breakdown. Technical indicators—particularly the symmetrical triangle—offer a clear breakout setup, with an initial target near $4. Wave analysis reinforces a bullish trajectory, suggesting potential cycle highs between $19 and $30, with $20 commonly referenced. Combined with signs of accumulation and resilient investor sentiment, XRP may be positioning for one of its most significant upward movements in years. For investors exploring new crypto assets, altcoin yield opportunities, or practical blockchain use cases, XRP’s evolving price structure and strong technical foundation make it an asset well worth watching.
