Main Points:
- Bitcoin reaches $112,000, breaking its previous record amid tech-led risk appetite
- Nvidia’s market cap tops $4 trillion, fueling broader crypto and equity gains
- Fed minutes hint at rate cuts later in 2025, boosting speculative assets
- High correlation with Nasdaq100 (0.91) and SOX (0.87); decoupling from gold (−0.08)
- Options data show rising call interest at $120,000 strike and low PCR, signaling bullish sentiment
- Active open interest and funding rates indicate a surge in long positions; caution on potential pullbacks
- Upcoming “Crypto Week” in U.S. House (July 14–20) and key U.S. data (CPI on July 15; retail sales on July 17) could steer next moves
Record-Breaking Rally Amid Tech Bull Run
On July 10, 2025, Bitcoin shot above $112,000, eclipsing its previous all-time high and cementing its place as the leading digital asset by market capitalization. This milestone gain was underpinned by two primary catalysts: an unprecedented surge in semiconductor giant Nvidia’s valuation and renewed hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
Nvidia’s stock climbed sharply on strong AI chip demand, briefly pushing its market cap past $4 trillion—a feat that reverberated across risk assets and invigorated crypto markets. Simultaneously, Federal Open Market Committee minutes released earlier this week revealed that some officials favored interest rate reductions in the coming quarters, stoking expectations of looser monetary policy and driving investors into higher-yielding assets.
Tech Stocks and Bitcoin: A Tight Correlation
Over the past two months, Bitcoin’s price movements have tracked closely with major technology and semiconductor equities. The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq100 stands at +0.91, while its correlation with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is +0.87, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s newfound synergy with tech investments. Conversely, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold—a traditional safe-haven asset—has dropped to −0.08, reflecting its differentiation from precious metals in current market dynamics.
| Asset Pair | Correlation (2-month) |
|---|
| Bitcoin–Nasdaq100 | 0.91 |
| Bitcoin–SOX | 0.87 |
| Bitcoin–Gold | −0.08 |
Options Market: Bullish Skew Intensifies
Analysis of Bitcoin’s options markets reveals a bullish bias at higher strikes. Call open interest has swelled most notably at the $120,000 level, indicating that traders are positioning for further upside. At the same time, the put–call ratio (PCR) has fallen to multi-year lows, suggesting that hedging demand is waning and speculative call buying is rising.
Futures Positions and Funding Rates: Longs on the Rise
Active open interest on perpetual futures contracts jumped sharply this week, with funding rates turning increasingly positive. These developments point to a buildup of long positions, as traders pay premiums to hold bullish bets. While such momentum can propel prices higher, history warns of intermittent corrections in the absence of fresh fundamental news—a pattern observed in early July when Bitcoin briefly retraced after its previous peak.
Chart: Bitcoin Price Trend (June–July 2025)
The chart below illustrates Bitcoin’s ascent from approximately $90,000 at the start of June to its recent high above $112,000.
See chart above.
Institutional and Corporate Adoption
Institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to grow. Shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) climbed over 4% and 5%, respectively, in the wake of Bitcoin’s record. Furthermore, treasury allocations by firms such as Trump Media & Technology Group and GameStop have provided additional tailwinds, signaling corporate interest in crypto as a reserve asset.
Macro Outlook: Fed Policy and U.S. House “Crypto Week”
With U.S. consumer price index data due on July 15 and retail sales on July 17, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory may hinge on inflation readings and consumer spending trends. Additionally, the U.S. House’s newly designated “Crypto Week” (July 14–20) will see deliberations on the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—legislation that could provide regulatory clarity or introduce headwinds for digital assets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s breakout above $112,000 reflects the convergence of a surging tech rally—epitomized by Nvidia’s $4 trillion valuation—and strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts, ushering in a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment. While bullish dynamics in options and futures markets suggest further price discovery, market participants remain watchful of potential pullbacks amid the absence of new catalysts. With key U.S. economic data and legislative developments on deck, the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin’s record-setting run can sustain its momentum.
