Main Points:
- Bullish Price Targets: $135,000 by end of Q3 2025; $200,000 by year-end; $500,000 by 2028.
- New Market Dynamics: Robust spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases totaling 245,000 BTC in Q2 2025.
- Halving Cycle Disruption: Post-halving corrections may be offset by institutional demand, breaking the historic 18-month decline pattern.
- Short-Term Volatility: Possible pullbacks between late Q3 and early Q4 2025.
- Additional Catalysts: Potential U.S. stablecoin regulation, Fed Chair replacement, and rising adoption by private and public institutions.
Introduction
Global bank Standard Chartered has issued a notably bullish outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting new all-time highs through 2025 and a long-term surge by 2028. In its July 2 report, the bank’s digital asset research head, Geoff Kendrick, attributes this optimism to powerful new demand drivers—exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury allocations—that were largely absent in prior delivery cycles.
Breaking the Halving Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s supply-shock “halving” events—occurring roughly every four years and cutting mining rewards by 50%—have triggered steep rallies, followed by significant corrections approximately 18 months later. Yet, Kendrick argues that this time is different:
- ETF Inflows: $12.4 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF purchases in Q2 2025 (≈120,000 BTC)
- Corporate Treasury Buys: 125,000 BTC acquired by public companies in the same period.
Combined, these total 245,000 BTC—levels Kendrick expects to be exceeded in both Q3 and Q4 2025. This influx of institutional capital, he suggests, neutralizes the typical post-halving downturn.
ETF Flows and First Outflow Signal
After 15 consecutive days of net inflows totaling nearly $4.8 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first outflow on July 1, 2025—a $342.3 million withdrawal, representing about 7% of the 15-day inflow run. While this pause may hint at short-term profit-taking, Standard Chartered sees it as a temporary blip, not a reversal of the broader bullish trend.
Price Forecasts
- End of Q3 2025: $135,000 per BTC
- Year-End 2025: $200,000 per BTC
- By 2028: $500,000 per BTC
These targets assume continued strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations, combined with positive macro and regulatory developments—most notably expected U.S. stablecoin legislation and changes in Federal Reserve leadership.
Current Market Context
As of today (July 3, 2025), Bitcoin trades around $109,007 USD, up 3.37% intraday.
Risks and Short-Term Volatility
While the medium- to long-term outlook is strikingly positive, Standard Chartered does not rule out tail-winds of volatility:
- Late Q3–Early Q4 2025: Profit-taking or technical corrections could briefly pause the rally.
- Regulatory Setbacks: Any delays in stablecoin rulemaking or unexpected macro shocks might dampen momentum.
Broader Trends and Practical Use Cases
Beyond price dynamics, the report highlights structural shifts underpinning Bitcoin’s maturation:
- Institutional Adoption: More asset managers and corporate treasuries are integrating BTC into their balance sheets as a portfolio diversifier.
- Regulatory Clarity: Progress on U.S. stablecoin frameworks and clearer ETF guidelines enhance market confidence.
- Blockchain Applications: Growing interest in tokenized assets and cross-border settlement experiments underscores blockchain’s pragmatic utility for enterprises.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s projections mark a departure from Bitcoin’s traditional post-halving cycles, powered by “institutional tailwinds” rather than solely supply shocks. With $135K by Q3 2025 and $200K by year-end—potentially scaling to $500K by 2028—the bank’s forecasts underscore a transformative phase for Bitcoin: one where regulated financial vehicles and corporate strategies redefine its market trajectory. While temporary volatility remains possible, these new demand drivers present a compelling case for investors seeking the next wave of crypto-asset growth and real-world blockchain applications.
