Main Points:
- Bitcoin/JPY opened at ¥12,439,000 (＄88,311) on April 22, 2025, after a weekend low of ¥12,095,000 (＄85,868), and has since hovered around ¥12,270,000 (＄87,111).
- In USD markets, BTC broke above $87,000—its highest since early April—yet faces resistance at $90,000–$92,000.
- Technical indicators show a nascent uptrend from the ¥12,095,000/$83,000 support, but key zones at ¥13,300,000 in JPY and $90,000 in USD remain hurdles.
- Macro drivers—including a three‑year low in the U.S. dollar and record‑high gold prices amid Trump‑Fed tensions—have buoyed Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal.
- Analyst Timothy Peterson sees upside to $138,000 within 90 days, based on historical seasonality and macro probability models.
- Institutional signals remain constructive: Metaplanet raised holdings above $400 million, and nearly 70 crypto ETFs await SEC review, underscoring looming inflows.
- Short‑term strategy: buy near support (¥12,095,000/$83,000) with stops below, and target resistance zones at ¥13,300,000/$90,000–$92,000.
Price Overview and Weekend Rebound
Bitcoin/JPY began trading on April 22 at approximately ¥12,439,000 (＄88,311), up from a weekend low of ¥12,095,000 (＄) recorded in the early hours of April 21. That trough prompted a swift rebound, lifting prices back toward ¥12,270,000 (＄) by Monday’s open. In USD terms, BTC/USD broke above $87,000 for the first time since early April, ending a tight consolidation band between $83,000 and $87,000. Despite that breakout, buyers have stalled below the next resistance cluster at $90,000–$92,000, mirroring the capped upside seen around ¥13,300,000 (＄) in JPY markets.
Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, and Seasonality
On the 1‑hour chart, Bitcoin’s weekend low at ¥12,095,000/$83,000 formed a clear pivot, with successive higher lows indicating the early stages of an uptrend. Key horizontal resistance lines sit near ¥13,300,000 in JPY and $90,000 in USD—zones that have capped gains since February. Momentum indicators remain constructive: BTC is above its 30‑day exponential moving average, and RSI sits below overbought levels, suggesting further upside remains possible. That technical setup aligns with seasonality data showing April’s historical average gain of nearly 13% over the past decade.
Macro Environment: Dollar, Gold, and Fed‑Trade Tensions
Global markets have been roiled by U.S. dollar weakness and safe‑haven flows into gold, driven in part by President Trump’s public clashes with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On April 21, the U.S. Dollar Index hit a three‑year low, while gold surged past $3,400 per ounce—each reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as “digital gold”. Concurrently, renewed trade tensions and tariff threats have added layers of uncertainty, keeping risk appetite in check even as traders hunt for alternative stores of value.
Institutional Insight: Accumulation and ETF Inflows
Institutional demand shows no signs of abating. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on April 21 that it has increased its Bitcoin holdings to over $400 million, acquiring 330 BTC at an average of $85,605 each—pushing its total to 4,855 BTC and a year‑to‑date yield above 119%. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence reports that nearly 70 cryptocurrency ETFs are under SEC review in the U.S. this year, spanning assets from XRP and Solana to memecoins and derivatives strategies. Approval of these products could unlock substantial new inflows from both retail and institutional channels.
Short‑Term Strategy: Dip‑Buying and Profit Targets
Given the confluence of technical support at ¥12,095,000/$83,000 and macro‑driven safe‑haven flows, a dip‑buy strategy appears prudent. Traders may look to enter long positions near these support levels, using stops just below (e.g., ¥12,000,000 or $82,000) to manage downside risk. Profit‑taking points can be staggered across the next resistance cluster: first near ¥13,175,000/$90,000, then the broader ¥13,300,000–¥14,000,000/$92,000–$97,000 zone. Should Bitcoin clear these hurdles, a test of the April high near ¥13,175,000/$90,000 becomes likely.
Bitcoin’s muted rally on Monday underscores a market caught between the allure of safe‑haven assets and the cautious realities of macro volatility. Support at ¥12,095,000/$83,000 remains critical; a sustained break below could invite deeper corrections, while a push above ¥13,300,000/$92,000 would signal a resumption of bullish momentum. Traders and investors should monitor upcoming U.S. economic releases, Fed communications, and ETF approval developments, all of which stand to shape Bitcoin’s path in the weeks ahead.
