＜Today’s short-term forecast＞ Bitcoin’s Steady Climb: Have Altcoins Finally Bottomed Out?

Key Points：

• Robust Support Test: Bitcoin’s JPY 16,500,000 (~USD 113,800) support level held firm after a sharp June dip, triggering a V-shaped recovery.
• New All-Time Highs in Sight: Breach of the JPY 18,200,000 (~USD 125,500) resistance suggests Bitcoin may target its next psychological milestone near USD 150,000.
• Altcoins Showing Early Rebounds: Ethereum, XRP, and Solana indicators hint at bottom formation, with Ethereum poised near USD 3,500, XRP aiming for USD 3.67–4.00, and SOL eyeing USD 247.71.
• Macro Signals Bullish: Bitcoin’s retest of its 50-day EMA aligns with classic inverted head-and-shoulders patterns targeting USD 148,000.
• Emerging Altcoin Opportunities: Utility tokens like Remittix (RTX) are winning attention over meme coins for sustainable growth.
• Japanese Investor Strategies: Balanced portfolios, disciplined profit-taking, and “buy the dip” tactics are key to navigating the new high-price era.

1. Robust Support Test: JPY 16,500,000 (~USD 113,800) as a Springboard

JPY 16,500,000 (~USD 113,800 at ¥145/USD) emerged as a critical support for BTC/JPY in late June, evidenced by a dramatic V-shaped recovery that underpins renewed market confidence. After plunging to JPY 15,529,936 (~USD 107,100), Bitcoin rebounded swiftly, reclaiming JPY 16,500,000 within hours. This bounce aligns with Crypto.com Research’s observation that significant buy orders clustered around long-standing key levels; the market’s ability to absorb large sell-offs here reinforces the thesis of a durable bottom.

On the hourly BTC/JPY chart, the retracement from JPY 15,529,936 to JPY 16,598,425 (~USD 114,470) in early July marked rejection of lower prices, confirming buyer resolve. Similar behavior was seen in USD markets, where Bitcoin’s retreat to the 50-day EMA around USD 110,000 triggered a sharp 25% rally ✧. Analysts at Cointelegraph note that “the 50-day EMA has historically served as a reliable springboard for fresh bulls, and its recent hold bodes well for a push toward USD 148,000”.

Figure 1 (insert here): BTC/JPY 1-Hour Chart Showing Support at JPY 16,500,000 (~USD 113,800) and V-Shaped Recovery (file: figure1_bitcoin_support.png)

2. Unstoppable Wave of Higher Highs: Breach of JPY 18,200,000 (~USD 125,500)

Following the firm support, Bitcoin powered through the long-tested JPY 18,200,000 (~USD 125,500) resistance, touching JPY 18,108,886 (~USD 124,900) on August 1, 2025. This break of a major psychological barrier signals a shift from consolidation to a fresh uptrend – a phenomenon often dubbed a “blue-sky breakout.”

In USD terms, BTC has reclaimed levels above USD 115,000, challenging mid-term resistance zones identified by Binance Research at USD 113,000–115,000. Moreover, the absence of a sustained reversal after the breakout suggests that profit-taking has been limited, and new entrants are keen to ride momentum.

Classic technical setups reinforce bullish conviction. On daily charts, Bitcoin completed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, retested the neckline near USD 117,000, and accelerated higher. The measured move from this pattern points toward a USD 148,000 target, consistent with several independent analyses.

Figure 2 (insert here): BTC/USD Daily Chart with Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Targeting USD 148,000 (file: figure2_btc_ihs.png)

3. Altcoins Reflect Early Signs of Life

As Bitcoin carves out new peaks, leading altcoins are finally showing promising divergence signals:

• Ethereum (ETH): After sliding under USD 3,000 in early July, ETH found support at the 100-day SMA (~USD 2,900). Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned positive, indicating renewed accumulation. CCN reports ETH could reach USD 3,500 by mid-August if demand holds.
• XRP (Ripple): XRP’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence in CMF above zero. Forecasts range from USD 3.67 to USD 4.00 as the token retests resistance zones.
• Solana (SOL): SOL’s daily chart presents a classic ascending triangle. A decisive close above USD 200 could unleash a measured move toward roughly USD 247.71.

Meme coins, however, exhibit mixed signals. Dogecoin (DOGE) is enjoying a short-lived rally toward USD 0.215 amid ETF optimism and celebrity buzz, but Remittix (RTX) – a DeFi payments token – is drawing sharper long-term interest for its on-chain utility and staking rewards, positioning it as a stronger candidate for outsized returns in 2025–26.

Figure 3 (insert here): Altcoin Performance: ETH, XRP, SOL Relative Strength Index and CMF Indicators (file: figure3_altcoins.png)

4. Macro Themes and “Perfect Bottom” Signals

In global markets, Bitcoin’s recent consolidation mirrors historical August seasonality, often marked by volatility before year-end bull runs. Despite the so-called “August Curse,” long-term bulls, including Robert Kiyosaki, are seizing dips below USD 90,000 to accumulate more BTC.

Moreover, on-chain metrics remain supportive: whale clusters have not distributed significant holdings after setting new highs, suggesting confidence among major holders. Glassnode data shows realized price metrics well below spot, indicating that the majority of coins are in profit and reducing systemic risk.

The convergence of technical (50-day EMA holds), on-chain (whale accumulation), and macro (ETF flows) factors crafts a compelling narrative for Bitcoin’s next leg up, with USD 150,000 as a realistic intermediate target before higher echelons.

5. Guidance for Japanese Investors: Strategies and Risk Management

With Bitcoin surging past JPY 18,000,000 (~USD 125,500) and altcoins stirring to life, Japanese investors should heed the following:

1. Define Risk Budgets: Allocate only capital you can afford to lose. High-volatility assets like BTC and altcoins should constitute a portion of your portfolio alongside equities and bonds.
2. Follow a Long-Term Plan: Resist the temptation to react to every daily headline. Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to buy over time and mitigate timing risk.
3. Identify “Buy the Dip” Zones: Based on technical analysis, allocate more on pullbacks to key EMAs (BTC’s 50-day near USD 110,000; ETH’s 100-day near USD 2,900).
4. Take Partial Profits: At new all-time highs, consider locking in gains on a portion of your position to de-risk your portfolio and secure capital.
5. Stay Informed: Rely on reputable sources for on-chain data and macro developments. Japanese regulators may also update tax guidelines; keep abreast of local reporting requirements.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s ability to conquer JPY 16,500,000 (~USD 113,800) support and breach JPY 18,200,000 (~USD 125,500) resistance marks a significant turning point in the 2025 crypto cycle. Reinforced by classic technical patterns, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic tailwinds, BTC stands poised to challenge USD 150,000 in the months ahead. Concurrently, Ethereum, XRP, and SOL are flashing early buy signals, suggesting a broadening of the rally beyond Bitcoin.

For Japanese investors, the moment demands both caution and confidence: to ride the wave intelligently by defining clear risk parameters, employing disciplined entry and exit strategies, and diversifying across the most promising blockchain assets. As the market enters this new high-price era, a balanced, research-driven approach will be the key to capitalizing on the next frontier of cryptocurrency growth.