Main Points:
- Bitcoin’s Golden Week performance underwhelmed despite briefly surpassing ¥14 million (＄97,815)
- A clear uptrend formed since late April, with support now around ¥13.5 million (＄94,322)
- Market participants await return of Japanese traders for potential renewed momentum
- Global macro factors—from U.S. Fed policy to state-level crypto reserves—may drive next moves
- Institutional accumulation continues amid MicroStrategy’s fresh purchases
1. Golden Week Stagnation
Over Japan’s Golden Week holiday (April 29–May 6, 2025), Bitcoin’s price action failed to impress. Although the pair briefly climbed from an opening price of ¥11,982,535 (＄83,720) to a high of ¥13,733,763 (＄95,955) on May 7, trading volumes were muted, and the rally lacked conviction. After peaking, the price drifted lower, settling near ¥13,670,833 (＄95,516) by 7:19 AM JST on May 7, suggesting that many retail participants remained on the sidelines during the holiday period.
Holiday lulls can obscure underlying strength, however. The dip in trading activity during Golden Week often leads to exaggerated intraday swings but little follow‑through, as observed in the current pullback. With major Japanese market-makers and retail traders returning today, there is room for a genuine resurgence if buying interest picks up.
2. Technical Outlook: From Resistance to Support
Chart analysis of the 1-hour BTC/JPY since April 27 reveals a defined uptrend:
- April 27 Low: ¥12,017,560 (＄83,965) marked the recent swing low.
- Breakout: From April 30 to May 1, Bitcoin cleared the ¥13,500,000 (＄94,322) resistance within mere hours—an early sign of bullish strength.
- New Support: The former resistance at ¥13.5 million (＄94,322) now stands as a psychological floor.
Candlestick patterns near the recent high indicate that bullish sentiment remains intact. Labels on the chart such as “(High)” with upward arrows and “(Bullish Continuation)” reinforce the notion of continued upside. Short-term consolidation around the current levels could represent healthy digestion before the next leg higher.
3. Potential Pullbacks and Risk Management
While the prevailing trend favors the bulls, intermittent pullbacks are possible:
- Short‑Term Corrections: A revisit to the ¥13.5 million (＄94,322) support zone could occur if profit-taking intensifies.
- Key Levels to Watch:
- Support: ¥13,500,000 (＄94,322)
- Resistance: Next major barrier at ¥14,000,000 (＄97,815)
Traders should monitor volume and momentum indicators. A decline in volume during pullbacks followed by volume upticks on advances would signal continued buyer commitment.
4. Global Catalysts in Play
Although no major news directly impacted Bitcoin during Golden Week, broader developments could soon influence sentiment:
- U.S. Federal Reserve Pause
On May 6, Bitcoin dipped slightly alongside equities ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Analysts view this as a “healthy pause” after April’s gains; any dovish commentary from Chair Jerome Powell could reignite risk‑asset flows into crypto. - New Hampshire Crypto Reserve
Effective in July 2025, New Hampshire will become the first U.S. state to allocate up to 5% of its public funds into Bitcoin, signaling growing institutional acceptance. Such initiatives could bolster long-term confidence. - Institutional Accumulation
MicroStrategy acquired over 300,000 BTC in Q1, bringing its total to 553,555 coins and underscoring the commitment of major corporates to Bitcoin as a treasury asset . - Macro Policy Trends
With indications of renewed fiat expansion globally, historically correlating with higher Bitcoin inflows, the macro backdrop remains supportive.
5. Looking Ahead: Japanese Traders Return
Today marks the first full trading day after Japan’s Golden Week. Historically, the return of domestic traders brings increased liquidity and sharper price moves. If buyers step in above the ¥13.5 million (＄94,322) support, we may see a swift challenge of the ¥14 million (＄97,815) mark and possibly a new local high.
Conversely, failure to hold current levels could spark a deeper retracement toward ¥13 million (＄94,322). Market participants should plan entries around these zones, using tight risk controls to navigate potential volatility spikes.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s Golden Week performance was subdued, yet the underlying uptrend remains robust. Key support at ¥13.5 million (＄94,322), a shifting macro environment—including potential U.S. Fed dovishness and state‑level crypto reserves—and ongoing institutional accumulation all point to further upside. As Japanese traders return today, watch for renewed volume and decisive moves. A sustained hold above current support could pave the way for a fresh assault on ¥14 million (＄97,815) and beyond, while a dip below ¥13.5 million (＄94,322) would warrant caution. Overall, the stage is set for a pivotal week in Bitcoin’s ongoing bullish journey.
