Will XRP’s Rally Resume in October? — Technical Triggers, ETF Catalysts, and Market Risks

Key Takeaways :

• XRP must hold above $2.75 to preserve upside potential and avoid a deeper drop
• A breakout above the $2.81 / 100-day SMA barrier could pave the way to $3.62 or higher
• The looming SEC decisions on spot XRP ETFs in October may serve as a catalyst
• Seasonal trends suggest October often underperforms for XRP, but Q4 historically sees strong gains
• Upside scenarios range from ~15–40% gains to +50–150% if institutional inflows pour in
• Risks include ETF delays, weak capital inflow, or macro/crypto market stress triggering “sell the news”

1. XRP at a Crossroads: Must Defend $2.75

In September, XRP’s price flirted with a critical support zone near $2.75, which has become a key technical battleground. That zone roughly corresponds to the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern in daily price charts. Holding above that line not only maintains structural integrity, but also enhances prospects for a rebound toward resistance levels.

If XRP fails to defend $2.75 and breaks below the triangle, the next major downside target lies near $2.00, which would represent a bearish resolution of the pattern. Analysts have pointed out that a break below support could accelerate selling pressure.

Conversely, if that support holds, buyers may begin to push toward the resistance at $2.81, where the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) presents a supply barrier. Clearing that level could open the path toward the triangle’s upper target in the $3.62 region.

One nuance worth noting: Glassnode’s heatmap suggests that a cluster of XRP holdings is concentrated around $2.75, indicating meaningful demand there. That adds further weight to the importance of this level.

In short: October’s trajectory may very well hinge on whether $2.75 becomes a springboard or a breakdown point.

2. The ETF Factor: Turning Point or Letdown?

One of the most eagerly watched developments for XRP is the potential approval of spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. in October. Such approval would force ETFs to hold the underlying token, meaning institutional buyers would need to source XRP from the market — potentially creating a supply squeeze. Indeed, some estimates suggest $5–8 billion of inflows could hit XRP ETFs in the first month, dwarfing inflow rates seen in early Bitcoin ETF launches.

However, there is also a risk that market participants have already “priced in” expectations, which could lead to a “sell the news” reaction if approvals arrive.

Some additional details and timing to watch:

• The SEC’s regulatory shift in September 2025 reduced the timeline for approving crypto ETFs from 270 days to 75 days, potentially accelerating approvals.
  
• Several XRP-related ETF deadlines fall between October 13–25.
  
• The Rex/Osprey Spot XRP ETF launched on September 18 and saw strong trading volume, though its impact on the spot price has been muted so far.
  
• If multiple ETFs are approved with robust institutional demand, the appreciation potential could be substantial. Some forecasts suggest a +50% to +150% move within October is within the realm of possibility.
  

But this bullish scenario is not guaranteed. Delays, regulatory pushback, or lackluster demand could leave XRP range-bound or even prompt a reactionary decline.

3. Seasonal Patterns: October’s Weakness vs Q4 Strength

One headwind for bulls is seasonality: historically, October has been a weak month for XRP. Since 2013, XRP has ended in red in October 7 times out of 12, with an average return of –4.58%.

Yet, the last quarter of the year (October–December) has often been the strongest stretch for XRP. The average return across those three months is around +51%, making Q4 the single most favorable period historically.

Indeed, exceptional rallies have occurred in past Q4s:

• In Q4 2024, XRP surged by roughly 240%
  
• In 2017, the Oct–Dec period delivered over 1,000% gains
  
• Even during bearish years like 2018 (−39%) and 2022 (−29%), the Q4 period often showed heightened volatility.

Putting this together: October may be volatile or slightly negative, but if bullish catalysts (ETF, capital inflow) kick in, the rest of Q4 could deliver outsized returns.

4. Outlook Scenarios & Price Projections

Base Case

Assuming XRP holds above $2.75, clears roughly $2.81, and ETF approvals generate steady inflows, the token could target $3.30 to $4.00 in October.

Bull Case

In a scenario where multiple ETFs get approved and institutional money floods in, XRP may power higher—+50% to +150% upside is projected by some analysts, placing it between $4.30 and $7.20. Some even point to Fibonacci extensions as high as $4.17, $4.92, or $5.85 by October based on technical structure breakouts.

Bear Case

Should XRP fail the $2.75 support decisively, or ETF approval is postponed or underwhelming in flows, downside pressure could push XRP toward $2.20 to $2.50 or lower.

Wild Card: Market Correction & Macro Risk

Even under bullish setups, widespread market stress (e.g. macroeconomic surprise, regulation shock, leveraged liquidations) could override the bullish case. In such a scenario, the “sell the news” reaction to ETF approvals might trigger a retracement.

5. Recent Developments & Supporting Trends

• In April 2025, CME Group announced plans to launch cash-settled XRP futures, pending regulatory approval. This move marks a push to bring XRP deeper into institutional derivatives markets.
• The SEC’s regulatory change in September 2025 shrank the approval window for crypto ETFs, a structural shift that could benefit XRP ETF proponents.
  
• The broader crypto market experienced a recent selloff triggered by excessive leverage and Fed interest rate expectations, which dragged XRP lower. However, a nascent rebound is forming.
  
• Analysts see potential for liquidity to rotate from Bitcoin into altcoins like XRP once ETF approvals materialize.
  
• A recent study applied deep reinforcement learning models to trading scenarios involving XRP, finding that advanced AI models could outperform in volatile conditions. This suggests that more sophisticated algorithmic flows might increasingly influence XRP price behavior.
  

6. What To Watch Over the Coming Weeks

1. Stay tuned to October 13-25 — a cluster of SEC spot XRP ETF deadlines falls in this period.
   
2. Volume & flow data — whether inflows actually hit XRP through ETFs or exchanges will help confirm breakout conviction.
3. Bitcoin’s health — as an altcoin, XRP often respects Bitcoin’s trend; a strong BTC helps, weakness hurts.
   
4. On-chain metrics — accumulation, supply clustering, and whale behavior could reveal hidden support or resistance zones.
5. News or regulatory risk — delays, negative commentary, or macro surprises (rates, inflation) could derail momentum.

Conclusion

XRP enters October at a decisive juncture. Technically, the $2.75 support line is make-or-break: holding it could allow an assault on resistance and a push toward $3.60+, while a breakdown risks a slide toward $2.00+. The looming SEC spot ETF decisions may serve as the catalyst XRP needs to break out or disappoint. Seasonality works against XRP in October, but history suggests the Q4 period tends to amplify gains if momentum is strong.

For crypto participants exploring new altcoin opportunities or income pathways, XRP offers a compelling but risky setup. If you believe institutional capital will flow into spot ETFs and that crypto regulation is trending favorable, entering around support with tight risk management may make sense. Yet, one must stay nimble—if the ETF approvals are delayed, or macro forces trigger a wider reset, XRP may lag even broader markets.

Let me know if you’d like me to produce a chart overlay, a live technical dashboard, or scenarios for different investment timeframes (1-month, 3-month, 12-month) based on this thesis.