Key Points :
- The traditional four-year halving-driven cycle for Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer reliable according to Arthur Hayes.
- Bitcoin’s price dynamics are now primarily driven by global fiat-liquidity expansion rather than mining-reward halvings.
- Hayes expects the current bull market to continue, with a major drawdown that used to follow prior cycles (-70-80 %) becoming less likely.
- The trigger for the next upside phase is looser monetary policy from key central banks and rising money-supply growth.
- For altcoins, Hayes warns that simply following the hype won’t work this cycle: fundamentals—customers, revenue, tokenomics—matter much more.
- With bitcoin’s dominance staying high, the altcoin season may arrive later and be selective, not the broad blow-off of 2021.
- For practical crypto-asset investors and blockchain practitioners, the shift means rethinking timing, risk, strategy and token-selection models.
1. The End of the Halving-Cycle Narrative
In his recent essay titled “Long Live the King!”, Arthur Hayes argues that the previously dominant four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s mining-reward halving events is effectively obsolete. He notes that the major prior corrections in Bitcoin—2014, 2018 and 2022—were not so much triggered by the halving itself, but by broad financial tightening in developed economies. In each of these periods, Bitcoin lost around 70-80 % from its peak. Meanwhile, increasing fiat-currency liquidity did not weigh as heavily. Hayes’s core claim: the halving mechanism used to shape the market when Bitcoin was smaller and less mainstream—now, the story is far more about fiat-money supply.
Indeed, sources show Hayes stating that “the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle … made a lot more sense when Bitcoin was a much smaller asset class” and that today “Bitcoin has transitioned … into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.”
Thus, for those hunting new crypto-assets or planning strategic allocations, the timing of an opportunity is no longer simply “two months after the halving, buy everything”. Instead, liquidity metrics—monetary expansion, central-bank policy shifts—are key.
2. Why the Bull Market Could Persist
Hayes argues that we are entering a phase where global monetary conditions are becoming more accommodative, not less. He points to evidence that the Federal Reserve may cut policy rates (as early as September 2025) and that quantitative tightening (QT) is showing signs of halting. In his view, the “worst” of Bitcoin’s drawdown may already be behind us—he has previously pointed to a bottom around $77 000 (USD) when QT was declared “effectively dead”.
With central banks globally adding liquidity—Japan’s forthcoming stimulus under its next prime minister, China focusing on ending deflation rather than aggressive tightening—Hayes believes the flood of fiat will continue to favour risk assets like Bitcoin. In his own words: “They are clearly saying: currency will be cheaper, and more of it. Therefore Bitcoin is rising in expectation of this highly probable future.”
This translates for investors and practitioners as: the risk of a typical 70-80 % crash (as in prior cycles) is diminished; instead, a prolonged or delayed peak may materialise. The implication is that strategies built on “buy the halving, sell after 16-18 months” may no longer hold.
3. What This Means for Altcoins & Token-Projects
Hayes also weighs in on altcoins and token-driven projects. He emphasises that the next alt-cycle will not resemble the 2021 blow-off, where many “no-client, no-revenue” tokens soared. Instead, he declares this is a “fundamental season” in crypto, where projects must demonstrate real value—user base, revenue model, token-burn mechanics, buybacks—not just hype.
Specifically:
- He says Bitcoin must break $110 000 to $150-200 000 for an alt-season to unfold.
- The rotation into altcoins will be more selective. Many of the older “dinosaur coins” with high fully-diluted valuations and zero actual usage may not recover.
For those seeking new crypto assets or next-gen revenue sources and designing blockchain use-cases (as you with your ‘Two-Extremes’ model), this means focusing on tokens with genuine economics, use-cases, and sustainable metrics, rather than purely calendar-based speculation.
4. Practical Takeaways for Investors & Builders
a) Re-assess Timing Signals
Given the shift from halving-based rhythm to liquidity-driven dynamics, monitors should now include: central-bank communications, money-supply data (M2, M3 where available), QT/QE flows, treasury issuance, global debt dynamics and FX liquidity. Traditional timing signals (e.g., “16 months after halving”) may no longer reliably trigger moves.
b) Re-think Risk of Crash
If the risk of a deep draw-down is reduced, this may allow a longer hold horizon, but also demands vigilance for liquidity-shocks, policy-errors or external global events (wars, systemic banking shock) which Hayes acknowledges could still cause severe draw-downs.
Thus, portfolio design should include scenario planning: e.g., if fiat-liquidity reverses, what happens to your Bitcoin allocation? What happens to your alt-exposure?
c) Token-selection & Use-Case Focus
For projects and token investors: the next cycle favours business-model maturity. That means:
- Tokens with revenue streams, utility demands, burn or buy-back mechanics.
- Projects aligned with broader financial/monetary-system trends (e.g., stablecoin use, cross-border flows, institutional crypto interfaces) rather than speculative hype.
Your Two-Extremes Model (Asset-Backed Representation ↔ Autonomous Trust Tender) aligns well: leverage that framework to highlight real-world value drivers (asset representation) and decentralised innovation (autonomous trust).
d) Alt-cycle Entry Strategies
If the threshold for alt-season is a strong Bitcoin run ($110–200 k), then timing for alt-entry may come later than many expect. But the alt-phase itself may reward those who pick tokens with actual fundamentals. Avoid legacy “dino” tokens unless they’ve been revamped.
5. Broader Implications for Blockchain Infrastructure
From a practitioner’s perspective (wallet design, DeFi, non-custodial assets, etc), Hayes’s view implies:
- As fiat liquidity expands, institutional flows may get more involved. Bitcoin and major infrastructure may gain further legitimacy, thus non-custodial wallet design (such as your project) must cater to both retail and increasingly professional users.
- Token issuance platforms, ICOs/presales, and DeFi projects may benefit from a more liquid environment—but only if built on credible foundations.
- Regulatory frameworks may evolve: if liquidity floods markets, regulators may tighten rules for token-issuance, AML/STR frameworks, custody, etc. Your compliance work (EMI/VASP environment in Philippines) will be critical.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes’s thesis marks a meaningful inflection: the classical four-year halving-driven cycle of Bitcoin is challenged. Instead, global fiat-liquidity conditions, central-bank policy shifts and macro-monetary variables are becoming dominant drivers of crypto-asset price behaviour. For investors seeking new assets, for builders designing blockchain infrastructure, and for token issuers crafting next-gen projects, this shift demands a recalibration: focus on fundamentals, monitor liquidity flows, and prepare for a possibly extended bull market with selective alt-opportunities rather than broad speculative froth. As Hayes puts it: “Look to Washington and Beijing—they are saying currency will be cheaper and more abundant. Therefore Bitcoin is rising in expectation of that highly probable future.”
In short: align your asset-and-token strategy with the macro-monetary narrative, not just the calendar.
