Main Points :
- In 2025, gold has surged approximately +57% in USD terms, while bitcoin (BTC) has largely stagnated near the ~$110,000 level.
- According to Bitwise Investments (Bitwise) CIO Matt Hougan, one major driver of gold’s out-performance has been central-bank accumulation of gold — something bitcoin has not (yet) experienced.
- The second driver is that despite strong institutional demand for bitcoin (via spot ETFs and corporate treasuries), significant selling pressure is reportedly keeping prices from a breakout. Bitwise argues that once the selling pressure abates, bitcoin could mirror gold’s parabolic move.
- Additional emerging trends: More central banks are evaluating digital-asset reserves and regulatory frameworks are evolving, which may pave the way for bitcoin’s broader institutional adoption.
- For practitioners and investors seeking new crypto opportunities or practical blockchain use cases, these dynamics suggest that patience and strategic positioning may be rewarded as bitcoin transitions toward a reserve-asset or institutional-infrastructure phase.
1. Gold’s Out-performance and Why It Matters
In 2025, gold has delivered a standout performance, up around 57% in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, bitcoin has remained relatively flat since around May, trading in the vicinity of ~$110,000.
Why does this matter for bitcoin and the broader crypto/blockchain ecosystem? For one, many investors position bitcoin as “digital gold” — a store of value alternative to physical gold. When gold is vastly outperforming bitcoin, it shapes sentiment and frames expectations for crypto-assets. Bitwise’s interpretation is that gold’s strong run may offer a roadmap for bitcoin: if bitcoin can replicate the institutional accumulation and exhaustion of sell pressure that gold experienced, a large upside move could be ahead.
2. Central-Bank Purchases: The Hidden Engine for Gold
One of the core arguments from Bitwise’s note is that central banks have materially increased gold purchases since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. For example, data shows gold purchases by central banks rose from ~467 tons in 2021 to ~1,080 tons in 2022. Although the gold price didn’t explode immediately upon the increase, the eventual surge in 2025 — after the bulk of the selling pressure subsided — underscores the lag effect in such accumulation-led markets.
From a crypto vantage point, this is helpful: if bitcoin can gain similar regime-changing demand from central banks (or equivalent institutional frameworks), the potential size of the upside could be large. As of now, though, bitcoin has not yet benefited from significant central bank reserve accumulation, which partly explains its under-performance relative to gold.
3. Institutional Demand, Selling Pressure and Bitcoin’s Bottleneck
Another key part of Bitwise’s thesis focuses on demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries. Since the U.S. spot-bitcoin ETFs launched (e.g., in January 2024), bitcoin has gained roughly +135% — yet many market participants still anticipate a breakout to much higher levels.
Why has the price not yet broken out further? Bitwise argues that there remains substantial selling pressure in the market. The logic: institutional buyers are accumulating, but other holders (particularly yield-sensitive, trading-oriented investors) are taking profits or hedging when price moves exceed a threshold (often ~10-15%). This creates a drag that keeps the asset from entering the final “run-away” phase.
In Bitwise’s view, once the bulk of that sensitive selling is exhausted, the environment becomes ripe for a steep advance — akin to gold’s 2025 move. Some estimates suggest that even a modest 3-5% shift of capital from gold into bitcoin could propel bitcoin to ~$242,000 from its ~$107,000 baseline.
4. Emerging Trends: Central-Bank Adoption & Blockchain Infrastructure
Beyond the gold-bitcoin parallel, it’s valuable for blockchain and crypto practitioners to note a number of structural trends gaining momentum:
- Several central banks are actively researching or even planning to add bitcoin or digital-assets to their reserves. For example, Deutsche Bank analysts believe bitcoin could join gold on central bank balance sheets by ~2030.
- Regulatory frameworks are evolving globally: stablecoin legislation, tokenization of assets, and crypto infrastructure build-outs are all advancing. For instance, in the Q3 2025 crypto market review by Bitwise, stablecoin AUM exceeded $275 billion, and tokenized assets reached new highs.
- Moreover, the possibility of a “capital rotation” effect from gold into bitcoin is now part of the narrative — meaning some investors may shift from physical gold into digital assets, particularly as bitcoin continues to mature and gain institutional infrastructure.
For blockchain practitioners, these trends underscore that the crypto-asset industry is not just about retail speculation — it is becoming increasingly entwined with macro reserve strategy, institutional finance, and infrastructure build-out (custody, ETFs, tokenization). This suggests opportunities not only in crypto assets themselves but in the supporting stack (custody services, tokenization platforms, blockchain interoperability, etc.).
5. What Does This Mean for New Crypto Assets & Practical Blockchain Use Cases?
For readers who are exploring new crypto assets or looking for next-generation revenue sources via blockchain (rather than purely speculation), the implications are meaningful:
- Patient Positioning: The Bitwise thesis suggests that the next major leg in bitcoin may be timing-sensitive: accumulation + seller-exhaustion → breakout. If you’re exploring altcoins or layer-2/blockchain infrastructure plays, being early and patient may pay off.
- Institutional Currents: Assets that can plausibly align with institutional use-cases — e.g., tokenized real-world assets, assets with transparent proof of reserve/custody, infrastructure aligned with regulated institutional flows — might benefit more than speculative tokens without such linkages.
- Rotation Potential: If capital begins to rotate out of gold into crypto, we could see flows into assets beyond bitcoin (though bitcoin is likely to lead). Practically, this raises importance of assets that offer strong governance, regulatory clarity, and institutional-grade infrastructure.
- Blockchain Utilisation Beyond Store-of-Value: The narrative around institutional reserve-assets (gold, bitcoin) is one dimension, but the overarching blockchain build-out (tokenization, stablecoin rails, DeFi for institutions) is arguably more transformative. The 2025 Q3 market review by Bitwise highlights that stablecoins are now settling more value than Visa and tokenized assets are hitting new highs.
- Risk & Timing: Even if the thesis is correct, timing is unclear. The gold parallel shows there was a lag between increased demand (central-bank buying) and breakout move. For bitcoin and broader crypto, another element is regulatory and institutional infrastructure maturation.
6. Outlook & Forecasts
Putting the pieces together: Bitwise argues that bitcoin could be poised for a major move if the selling pressure eases and institutional demand continues strong. Some forecasts anchor ~$242,000 as a target if a modest capital shift from gold occurs.
Broader industry commentary (e.g., Deutsche Bank) suggests that one of the structural inflection points will be when bitcoin is officially treated as a reserve asset by central banks — which some expect by ~2030.
For blockchain professionals, the implication is clear: the next phase of crypto may be less about retail mania and more about institutional flows, infrastructure build-out, and asset tokenization. Positioning early in infrastructure that supports that shift may yield outsized long-term returns.
