When Tokens Turn Into Bets: The Swiss Probe Into FIFA’s “Right-to-Buy” Model

Main Points :

• Switzerland’s gambling regulator (Gespa) has launched a preliminary investigation into FIFA’s “Right-to-Buy” blockchain tokens, to assess whether they cross into gambling territory.
• The RTB model gives holders conditional rights to purchase tickets, often tied to unpredictable match outcomes, and permits secondary-market trading, raising speculation concerns.
• FIFA’s blockchain ticketing is part of its broader Web3 push (Avalanche-based network, FIFA Collect).
• The case highlights regulatory ambiguity facing tokenized sports assets: where is the line between utility and gambling?
• Research in sports tokenization and fan tokens suggests both opportunities (fractionalization, transparency, new monetization) and risks (volatility, regulatory uncertainty).
• Outcomes of the Swiss probe may set precedents for future tokenized offerings in sports, entertainment, and real-world assets.

1. Introduction: From Collectibles to Conditional Rights

FIFA has long explored blockchain and digital collectibles, via its platform FIFA Collect, initially launched on Algorand and more recently migrated to its own blockchain built on Avalanche. One of its novel experiments is the “Right-to-Buy” (RTB) token: a non-fungible token (NFT) which does not itself confer a seat or ticket, but rather grants the holder the right to purchase a ticket—under certain conditions—when official sales go live.

In effect, RTB is a bridge between speculative finance and fan engagement: supporters may buy RTBs tied to specific matches or teams, sometimes even for matches that the team may or may not qualify for (e.g. the “Right to Final” token, only usable if the chosen team reaches the final). The tokens are tradable on FIFA’s secondary marketplace, meaning buyers could hope to profit via resale.

This structure blends elements of option, lottery, and speculative asset—all under the guise of fandom. The Swiss regulator Gespa has now opened a preliminary probe to determine if this “gamble wrapped in an NFT” contravenes Swiss gambling laws.

2. What the Swiss Investigation Is About

2.1. Gespa’s Mandate and Scope

Gespa (the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority) is Switzerland’s inter-cantonal authority overseeing lotteries, sports betting, and automated gambling systems. Under the Swiss Gambling Act, it is empowered to assess whether novel offerings amount to gambling and to take regulatory enforcement if required. The initial step is fact-gathering; no wrongdoing has yet been alleged.

Gespa has expressed that based on initial assessment, it cannot rule out that the RTB offerings “may be relevant under gambling legislation,” prompting deeper investigation.

2.2. Legal Tension: Utility vs Gambling

The crux of the matter is whether these RTB tokens are mere “conditional purchase rights” (utility tokens) or operate like gambling. Key features that invite scrutiny include:

• Contingent outcome dependence: many RTBs only yield a useful right if certain events occur (e.g. team advances). If not, they become worthless (or less valuable).
• Secondary speculative trading: token holders can trade them, and prices may rise or fall based on market belief or team prospects—similar to betting markets.
• Opaque odds / information asymmetry: token purchasers often do not know seat assignments, match venues, or full probabilities at the time of purchase.
• High demand and limited supply: scarcity and hype may magnify speculative behavior. FIFA’s marketing claims that RTBs help manage demand spikes for high-profile matches.

Gespa will likely examine whether Swiss law defines such structures as “games of chance,” “bets,” or whether they fall outside regulated gambling. If judged as gambling, FIFA might need licensing or restrictions, or could be blocked from offering them in Switzerland or to Swiss residents.

3. The RTB Model in Practice: Performance, Pricing, and Risks

3.1. Sales and Revenue

According to public reporting, FIFA earned about US$15 million from RTB token sales to date. Some media suggest combined sales of RTBs and related FIFA Collect items may approach US$29 million in the primary market.

The pricing spans wide ranges: for the 2026 World Cup, RTB tokens may cost between $299 and $999, depending on the game and team, and “Right to Final” tokens are priced based on team odds (favorites command higher prices). In secondary trading, some RTBs have been reported to resell for up to $7,000 for highly demanded matches.

Some RTBs offer priority access to tickets for popular matches (e.g. opening match in Mexico’s Azteca Stadium) and guarantee holders are removed from the general queue when ticket sales open. However, holders must still pay for the actual ticket face value; the RTB only grants the right to purchase, not the ticket itself.

3.2. Speculative Behavior & Market Reaction

Because RTB tokens are tradable and tied to uncertain outcomes (team performance, ticket demand), they invite speculation. The token’s value might rise if a team performs well, or collapse if eliminated. This dynamic resembles financial derivatives or betting markets.

Academic research on fan tokens (distinct but related) supports caution: a study “Anticipatory Gains and Event-Driven Losses in Blockchain-Based Fan Tokens” found that fan tokens often appreciate in the months before major tournaments (anticipation effect), but then decline sharply or reverse during actual match days—particularly when teams lose in high-stakes rounds. This suggests behavioral biases of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may also apply to RTBs.

Additionally, volatility in the token price may deter conservative buyers and magnify downside risk for holders whose RTBs do not convert to actual tickets.

4. Broader Landscape: Tokenization in Sports and Entertainment

4.1. Tokenization Trends in Sports

Adoption of blockchain in sports has grown: tokenized ticketing, fan tokens, fractional ownership of athlete contracts, digital collectibles, and decentralized revenue-sharing models are all under active exploration.

A 2025 research paper in Nature explores combining deep learning and blockchain to optimize sports asset transactions (e.g. media rights, sponsorships, NFT-based revenues). It highlights benefits (efficiency, transparency, elimination of intermediaries) but also notes challenges: scalability, interoperability, and regulatory friction.

In esports, tokenization is already reshaping monetization, fan engagement, and cross-game interoperability. Smart contracts manage prize distribution and in-game economy; players truly own and trade assets across ecosystems.

4.2. Regulatory Crosswinds

RTB is not unique in facing regulatory scrutiny; many tokenized models blur lines between utility tokens, securities, or gambling instruments. Regulatory clarity is lagging, especially across jurisdictions.

Moreover, exchanges and financial institutions are increasingly exploring tokenized securities: e.g. Nasdaq recently filed a proposal with the U.S. SEC to permit trading of tokenized securities on its platform. This suggests a general movement toward on-chain assets within regulated frameworks.

However, licensing, KYC/AML, taxation, cross-border access, and consumer protection remain major hurdles for any token-based project in real assets or high-stakes domains like tickets or entertainment.

5. Implications for Builders, Investors, and Projects

5.1. For Project Creators & Brands

• Regulatory pre-check is essential: before launching tokenized offerings tied to contingent rights, projects should conduct legal analysis in target jurisdictions (gambling, securities, consumer protection). The Swiss probe demonstrates that national authorities may view such constructs as regulated gambling.
• Transparency and clarity of rights: clearly delineate what token holders are buying (option, utility, collectible), disclose all contingencies, risks, and probabilities.
• Design token mechanics to reduce speculation risk: for instance, avoiding extreme contingent dependencies or limiting tradability, or placing floor values.
• Establish compliance guardrails: KYC/AML, jurisdictional filtering (geoblocking), legal disclaimers, and possibly licensing.
• Align incentives with real utility: token holders may expect actual tangible benefits (access, perks, rewards) rather than pure speculation.

5.2. For Investors & Participants

• Be cautious of asymmetric risk: if your RTB does not convert, the token may lose significant value.
• Monitor market signals, team performance, hype cycles: speculative price movements may outpace fundamentals.
• Understand legal exposure: holding or trading tokens might be regulated in your country (as gambling, security, or derivative).
• Diversify exposures; tokenized offerings with complex conditional outcomes carry layered risks beyond normal crypto volatility.

6. What to Watch: Future Scenarios & Precedents

• Outcome of Swiss probe: If Gespa rules that RTBs qualify as gambling, FIFA may be forced to restrict offerings in Switzerland or revise the model globally. That could set a regulatory precedent for similar tokenized “rights” in sports and entertainment.
• Appeals and judicial interpretation: Courts may clarify boundaries between tokenized utility and gambling in different legal systems.
• Adoption adjustments: FIFA and other sports organizations might pivot to more conservative token models (e.g. guaranteed perks, non-conditional access, capped resale) to stay within regulation.
• Regulatory coordination: As tokenization in real assets picks up (e.g. tokenized securities, real-world assets), authorities may issue clearer frameworks, making hybrid models safer to launch.
• Technological maturity and audits: robust smart contract auditing, usability, scalability, and interoperability will matter more as stakes increase.

Conclusion

FIFA’s “Right-to-Buy” token experiment is a compelling test case at the intersection of fandom, finance, and regulation. The concept dovetails with the broader trends in tokenization and Web3 expansion into sports and entertainment, offering new monetization paths and fan engagement mechanisms. Yet the Swiss regulatory inquiry underscores that such constructs can quickly stray into legally fraught territory, especially when they combine uncertainty, tradability, and speculative appeal.

For builders and investors in emerging crypto-enabled assets, this development is a cautionary signal: innovation must go hand-in-hand with legal diligence, clarity of utility, and thoughtful token design. How the Swiss agency rules (or how FIFA responds) may ripple across the tokenized-assets space, influencing not just sports, but entertainment, music, event tickets, and real-world asset tokenization.